Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 26 at Georgia Southern 56

GASO
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+37.9Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+1.8Blowout margin+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:18: Kevin Ellison run for 67 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:18: LA Ramsby run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:53: Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:35: Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 60 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:19: Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK) — NMSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:00GASO 4th & 3 at NMSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:18NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at GASO 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:20GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:43NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:18NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:45NMSU 4th & 7 at GASO 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:03GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:20NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:36GASO 4th & 3 at NMSU 44, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:23GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:23GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:18GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:18GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:53NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:35GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:19NMSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:18GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:20GASO Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:47GASO Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:30NMSU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.8%
Teldrick Morgan run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Darius JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+25
94.8%
Larry Rose III run for 25 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
94.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-5
94.8%
Andrew Allen sacked by Antwione Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
94.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 34 yds, downed at the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+12
94.4%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
94.4%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+6
94.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
94.4%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete, broken up by Winston RoseSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
94.4%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
94.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to LA Ramsby for 4 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
94.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Andrew Allen run for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Teldrick MorganSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.6%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+4
93.6%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Vegas Harley return for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:3393% → 94%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
93.4%
Matt Breida run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.9%
Wesley Fields run for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
93.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
93.6%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
93.7%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
93.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 38 yds, downed at the GeoSo 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:3694% → 95%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
93.6%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Keigan Williams for 9 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+23
93.6%
LA Ramsby run for 23 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
93.7%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Matt BreidaSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
93.7%
Favian Upshaw run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.6%
Matt Breida run for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:186% → 6%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
94.2%
Andrew Allen run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.1%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
94.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+18
94.2%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Xavier Hall for 18 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.0%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
94.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+7
94.1%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
94.0%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+1
93.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Xavier Hall for 1 yd to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
93.6%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-1
93.6%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
94.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
94.4%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles Campbell, broken up by Jaden WrightSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
94.0%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
93.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 6 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+7
93.7%
Larry Rose III run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.6%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
93.7%
Andrew Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-4
93.7%
Andrew Allen sacked by Jamal Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 14
OWN 18
+4
93.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 45 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:2994% → 97%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
94.2%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 48 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 19
OWN 33
+67
96.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 67 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Andrew Allen run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.4%
Allen, Andrew medium right pass incomplete, PENALTY GS personal foul (B. Dawson) 15 yards to the NMSU40, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
96.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
96.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+6
96.3%
Andrew Allen run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
96.3%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce Caldwell, broken up by Matt DobsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:4697% → 99%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
97.0%
LA Ramsby run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+2
97.0%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
96.9%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
97.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.0%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
98.9%
LA Ramsby run for 23 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:251% → 4%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
99.0%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+61
98.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Royce Caldwell for 61 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.3%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1197% → 99%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
97.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
99.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 60 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
99.0%
Allen, Andrew deep middle pass complete to Bergstrom, J for 82 yards to the GS0, clock 02:14, PENALTY NMSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NMSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+4
99.0%
Andrew Allen run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+37
99.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 37 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
98.9%
Allen, Andrew deep right pass incomplete to Caldwell, Royce, PENALTY GS pass interference (A. Glover) 15 yards to the GS31, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Bergstrom, broken up by Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
98.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.2%
Andrew Allen run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28 Andrew Allen fumbled, forced by Antwione Williams, recovered by NMxStSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
98.9%
Parker Davidson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.4%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5199% → 100%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
99.4%
Matt Breida run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.4%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+7
99.4%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 47 Matt Breida fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Kevin Ellison , return for 7 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+4
99.5%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 43 yds , Gregory Hogan returns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:341% → 3%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
99.5%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+9
99.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Tyrain Taylor for 9 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
99.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.5%
Xavier Hall run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
99.4%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
99.5%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 13 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
99.4%
Larry Rose III run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.4%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Royce CaldwellSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.4%
Andrew Allen run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+6
99.4%
Allen, Andrew short middle pass incomplete to Bowen, Joshua, PENALTY GS targeting (D. Gallon) 6 yards to the GS6, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.4%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.4%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5198% → 100%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
98.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+55
98.1%
Matt Breida run for 55 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+36
99.7%
Andrew Allen pass intercepted Antonio Glover return for 36 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Andrew Allen pass incomplete to Xavier HallSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Anthony Torres punt for 37 yds, downed at the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
99.8%
LA Ramsby run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Wesley Fields run for 10 yds to the GASOUTHERN 44 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.8%
F. Upshaw short left pass incomplete to K. Williams, PENALTY NMSU personal foul (Meredith, S) 15 yards to the NMSU39, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
99.8%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.8%
LA Ramsby run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
99.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
99.8%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
99.9%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-10
99.9%
F. Upshaw rush quarterback keeper right for 5 yards to the NMSU14, out-of-bounds (Hood, Jonathan), PENALTY GS holding (C. Thornton) 10 yards to the NMSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 22
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 29 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Clayton Granch for 21 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 30 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.9%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
100.0%
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 8 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25FUMBLE TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Vegas Harley run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Chaz Thornton run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Vegas Harley run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Chaz Thornton run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+26
99.9%
Vegas Harley run for 26 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Noah Hickey run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Chaz Thornton run for no gain to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+74
99.9%
Vegas Harley run for 4 yds Vegas Harley fumbled, forced by Robert Wagner, recovered by NMxSt Will Clement , return for 74 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Chaz Thornton run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Noah Hickey run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
Noah Hickey run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Demarcus Godfrey run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Ryan Brown run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Noah Hickey run for no gain to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+17
99.9%
Chaz Thornton run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Demarcus Godfrey run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-1
99.9%
Vegas Harley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-2
99.9%
TEAM takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:53
Andrew Allen pass complete to Jordan Bergstrom for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-2.6
TD · Q2 10:18
Kevin Ellison run for 67 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q3 8:19
Andrew Allen pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
-2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com