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APP

App State 59 at UL Monroe 14

ULM
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:39 · Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius Gillespie
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−28.6Pregame prior−11.8Score differential−18.5Garbage-time factor−9.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:11: Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 35 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +3.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:26: Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 31 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +3.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:02: Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +5.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:30: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 58 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +9.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:39: Marcus Cox run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:11APP 4th & 1 at APP 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11APP 4th & 6 at ULM 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    67.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52ULM 4th & 9 at APP 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:14APP 4th & 7 at ULM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:04ULM 4th & 2 at APP 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:04ULM 4th & 2 at APP 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41APP 4th & 8 at ULM 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:30ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:00APP 4th & 1 at APP 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.2%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:39ULM 4th & 4 at APP 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:30ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 1 at ULM 13, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:17ULM 4th & 6 at APP 6, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:26APP 4th & 3 at APP 14, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:25ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 32, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:11ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:04APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:26ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:04APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:02APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:30APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:39APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:30APP Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:17APP Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:35APP Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4923% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.1%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
23.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 11 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
23.1%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
23.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Doug MiddletonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+10
23.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 10 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
23.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 8 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
23.1%
Marcus Green run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
23.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 8 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
23.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 6 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+35
26.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 35 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
25.8%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
25.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
25.8%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+6
25.9%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
25.7%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
25.7%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
25.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
26.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
29.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
29.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for no gain to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+16
28.8%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Eric Boggs return for 16 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.4%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
28.5%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+3
28.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-1
28.2%
Garrett Smith sacked by Ronald Blair for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
27.5%
Chris Qualls punt for 35 yds, downed at the AppSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5071% → 72%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
28.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
27.5%
Marcus Cox run for 12 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
27.1%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-5
27.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+7
27.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 7 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
27.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+52
28.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 52 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
28.3%
Zach Matics 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4829% → 35%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
28.5%
Kaylon Watson run for 20 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
29.5%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
29.6%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+16
30.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 16 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
31.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
31.0%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
34.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 31 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2267% → 71%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
33.5%
Josh Boyd run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
33.5%
Josh Boyd run for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+28
34.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 28 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
31.9%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 48 Taylor Lamb fumbled, recovered by AppSt Taylor LambSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+5
32.1%
Simms McElfresh run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+43
29.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 43 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9DOWNS
16 plays · 62 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
30.9%
Kaylon Watson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
31.9%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+6
30.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Kaylon Watson for 6 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
32.1%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+23
32.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 8 yds to the ULMONROE 47 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Devan Stringer) to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
33.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 5 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
33.3%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
32.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Stoney HawkinsSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+4
31.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
33.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Jared Mapps) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+13
33.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Doug Middleton) to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
33.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Eric BoggsSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
33.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 6 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+2
32.5%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 2
OPP 4
-1
31.5%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:5169% → 77%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
31.3%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+7
31.5%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+78
30.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 78 yds to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
28.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
28.4%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
28.6%
Taylor Lamb run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
22.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
24.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 11 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
24.9%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
25.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
25.0%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Eric Boggs return for no gain to the AppSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:3378% → 78%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
22.4%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 1
50
+7
22.2%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
22.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
22.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Malachi JonesSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
21.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+16
21.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 16 yds Simms McElfresh fumbled, forced by Tre' Hunter, recovered by LaMon Tevyn CaginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
21.5%
DeVontae McNeal run for 9 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
22.6%
DeVontae McNeal run for 4 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3077% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
22.9%
Marcus Cox run for 15 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
22.4%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+58
13.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 58 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
14.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
14.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
14.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Anthony FlorySimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
14.2%
Chris Qualls punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:2187% → 96%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
12.6%
Marcus Cox run for 9 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
11.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
12.4%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+14
13.1%
Bentlee Critcher pass complete to Elias McMurry for 14 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
12.1%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+10
11.8%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
11.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 22 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.1%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
5.3%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-3
5.4%
Garrett Smith sacked by Olawale Dada for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+30
5.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 30 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
5.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
5.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared Mapps, broken up by Latrell GibbsSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
5.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to DeVontae McNeal for 6 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
5.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:4397% → 98%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
3.3%
Marcus Cox run for 14 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
3.2%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+9
3.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 9 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
2.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 37 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
1.9%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
1.9%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
1.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
1.9%
Chris Qualls punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:0499% → 100%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
1.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 21 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
1.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 9 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+9
1.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 9 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
1.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
1.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 13 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
1.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 8 yds to the LaMon 14Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+1
1.0%
Josh Boyd run for 1 yd to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
0.6%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
0.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
0.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
0.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
17 plays · 69 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
0.4%
Ben Luckett run for 22 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
0.4%
Ben Luckett run for 9 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
0.4%
DeVontae McNeal run for 3 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
0.4%
DeVontae McNeal run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
0.4%
Brayle Brown run for 10 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
0.4%
Ben Luckett run for 7 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+6
0.4%
Ben Luckett run for 6 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
0.4%
Brayle Brown run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
0.4%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-5
0.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Jeff Savage) to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+15
0.4%
Brown, Brayle pass incomplete to Luckett, Ben, PENALTY APP pass interference (Howard, A.J.) 15 yards to the APP4, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.4%
Brayle Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.4%
Brayle Brown run for 3 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
0.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Jeff Savage) to the AppSt 6Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.4%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to Harley ScioneauxSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.4%
Brayle Brown pass incomplete to D'Marius Gillespie, broken up by AJ HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
0.3%
Josh Boyd run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 5Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+9
0.3%
Josh Boyd run for 9 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
0.2%
Josh Boyd run for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
0.3%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
0.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
0.1%
Earnest Carrington pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Earnest Carrington pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Chris Qualls punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.1%
JP Caruso run for 8 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
0.1%
Ricky Fergerson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.1%
Ricky Fergerson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+46
0.1%
Ricky Fergerson run for 46 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.1%
Ben Luckett run for 19 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
0.1%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:30
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 58 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q3 8:39
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 3:02
Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com