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TXST

Texas State 27 at Louisiana 49

UL
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:40 · Lumi Kaba punt for 53 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 18 yds to the LaLaf 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense−5.4Score differential−2.2Pregame prior+4.7Garbage-time factor−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:27: Tyler Jones run for 31 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +6.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:35: Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +12.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:33: Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 31 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +15.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:17: Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +11.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:31: Jalen Nixon run for 18 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +10.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UL 4th & 1 at TXST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:05TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:40UL 4th & 2 at UL 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32TXST 4th & 2 at UL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27UL 4th & 2 at TXST 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:32UL 4th & 9 at TXST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:32TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:09UL 4th & 5 at TXST 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:40TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:06TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 46, tied
    Close callWent for it · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 26 at TXST 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:17TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:02TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UL 4th & 8 at UL 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:39TXST 4th & 1 at UL 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:39TXST 4th & 9 at UL 17, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:52TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:05UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:27TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:35UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:33UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:17UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:31UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:17TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:02UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:06TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:39UL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 10 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+21
58.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 21 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
58.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
58.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
58.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
58.5%
Jalen Nixon run for no gain to the TexSt 32 Jalen Nixon fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Jalen NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2242% → 44%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
58.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
58.3%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+13
58.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 13 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
58.3%
Chris Nutall run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+12
58.2%
Chris Nutall run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
58.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Chris NutallSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
56.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 37 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4757% → 60%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
56.9%
Nixon,Jalen screen pass incomplete to Riles,Al, PENALTY TXST holding (Gonzales, Herbert) 10 yards to the UL38, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
57.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
57.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
57.3%
Jalen Nixon run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-2
57.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 8 yds to the TexSt 39 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
57.4%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gary Haynes for 5 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
57.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
57.4%
Torrey Pierce run for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+10
57.6%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 10 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
59.9%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 22 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
58.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Chris Nutall for 11 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
58.2%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dominique Tovell for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 26 Tyler Jones fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+2
58.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+13
58.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 13 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-5
58.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+8
59.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 36 yds , Elijah McGuire returns for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44 UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, illegal block (Savion Brown) to the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
58.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Elijah McGuire for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
58.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
58.5%
Jalen Nixon run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:3142% → 50%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
57.9%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
57.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 7 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Tracy WalkerSimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
57.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+18
58.3%
Chris Nutall run for 18 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.3%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
56.3%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
56.6%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+6
57.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 6 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
56.0%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
49.8%
Tyler Jones run for 31 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
52.1%
Elijah McGuire run for 20 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
53.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
54.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.1%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
53.9%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 15 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.1%
Elijah McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
55.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
54.2%
Torrey Pierce run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
53.4%
Torrey Pierce run for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
50.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
50.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
50.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+26
51.5%
Lumi Kaba punt for 35 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 26 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5654% → 50%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
53.9%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
53.8%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Al Riles, broken up by Damani AlexceeSimilar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
52.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
49.5%
Stevie Artigue 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
47.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Dominique TovellSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
47.9%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-7
47.6%
Tyler Jones sacked by Blain Winston for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
49.7%
Lumi Kaba punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
48.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+10
49.8%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 10 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
50.3%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe Fuselier, broken up by Brandon McDowellSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
50.1%
Torrey Pierce run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+2
50.0%
Jalen Nixon run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
49.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
46.6%
Chris Nutall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+7
46.4%
Chris Nutall run for 7 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
46.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Robert LoweSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
46.4%
Tyler Jones sacked by Dominick Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
47.4%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 15
OWN 24
+18
48.2%
Lumi Kaba punt for 53 yds , Gary Haynes returns for 18 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 1:0448% → 61%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
47.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 4 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+4
48.2%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+12
46.3%
Elijah McGuire run for 12 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
47.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
48.9%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+11
47.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 11 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
48.8%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
48.8%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Jamal Robinson, broken up by David MimsSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
61.2%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:2948% → 44%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
52.7%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
51.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
52.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+10
55.7%
Tyler Jones run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -16 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.1%
Chris Nutall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-15
54.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Adrian Bellard) to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
-6
55.6%
Lowe, Robert rush over left end for 13 yards to the TXST26, PENALTY TXST holding (Bellard, Adrian) 6 yards to the TXST7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 28
OWN 7
+2
55.9%
Chris Nutall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 9
0
57.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
58.0%
Lumi Kaba punt for 36 yds , Gary Haynes returns for no gain to the TexSt 45 Gary Haynes fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Gary HaynesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
73.4%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 31 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 32%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
69.8%
C.J. Best run for 9 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-4
68.0%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 36 Robert Lowe fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Savion BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:2474% → 86%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
74.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+14
74.4%
Jalen Nixon run for 14 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
74.4%
Elijah McGuire run for 9 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-15
75.0%
Pierce,Torrey rush over left end for 8 yards to the TXST0, clock 10:13, PENALTY UL illegal block (Williams, Donovan) 15 yards to the TXST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+11
74.0%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 11 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+9
73.9%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 9 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
82.9%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-5
82.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
83.4%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
83.6%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Dominique TovellSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
83.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 60 yds, downed at the LaLaf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:1486% → 97%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
85.7%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 8 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+7
85.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
85.8%
Elijah McGuire run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-5
86.0%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Grant Horst) to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
85.8%
Torrey Pierce run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
85.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.4%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
86.3%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gabe Fuselier for 17 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
86.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Al Riles for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+12
86.5%
Elijah McGuire run for 12 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
86.6%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Eddie Gordon) to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
86.5%
Jalen Nixon pass incomplete to Gabe FuselierSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+9
86.3%
Torrey Pierce run for 9 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
97.1%
Jalen Nixon run for 18 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
96.7%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
96.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah McGuire at the LaLaf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
97.6%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
97.6%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Gary Haynes for 2 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+12
97.5%
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Nick Byrne for 12 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.0%
Torrey Pierce run for no gain to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.0%
Torrey Pierce run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
98.0%
Elijah McGuire run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
-5
97.8%
UL LAFAYETTE Penalty, false start (Jeryl Brazil) to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
97.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 3:372% → 8%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
98.4%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
98.4%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
98.4%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
98.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 4 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
98.3%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+39
98.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 39 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.1%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+33
98.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Tyler Siudzinski for 33 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.4%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Sherman PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2796% → 99%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
95.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+19
95.7%
Elijah McGuire run for 19 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
95.7%
Jalen Nixon run for 6 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+5
95.7%
Torrey Pierce run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Torrey Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.2%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
99.2%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.2%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
99.2%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
99.1%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+12
99.2%
Tyler Jones run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
99.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+15
99.1%
Tyler Jones run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
99.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. BestSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
99.2%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+4
99.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 4 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
99.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+9
99.4%
Darius Hoggins run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:33
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 31 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q2 0:35
Jalen Nixon pass complete to Jamal Robinson for 17 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q3 9:17
Elijah McGuire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com