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GASO

Georgia Southern 51 at UL Monroe 31

ULM
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.5ULM 5.1%Garrett Smith pass complete toD'Marius Gillespie for 10 yds for aTD, (Craig Ford KICK)AWAY 45 - HOME 31 · Q4 4:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:00 · Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense−29.7Pregame prior−1.3Score differential−19.0Garbage-time factor−13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:58: Matt Breida run for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +8.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:29: LA Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +8.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +10.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:06: Kevin Ellison pass intercepted for a TD Junior Williams return for 56 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +10.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:59: LA Ramsby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +12.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:16ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:22GASO 4th & 9 at ULM 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22ULM 4th & 12 at GASO 36, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:07ULM 4th & 9 at GASO 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:29ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20ULM 4th & 2 at GASO 2, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−1.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:51GASO 4th & 12 at ULM 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:57GASO 4th & 5 at ULM 37, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−1.0
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:00GASO 4th & 7 at ULM 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:59GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−5.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:59ULM 4th & 27 at ULM 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:31GASO 4th & 1 at ULM 4, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 12:58GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:29GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31GASO Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:57ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:06ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:59GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:04GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:00ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:31GASO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT TD
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4430% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
30.2%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
30.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
30.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 4 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
30.2%
Kaylon Watson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 0
+2
30.2%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45 UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
30.2%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+26
30.5%
TEAM punt blocked by D Gallon blocked by D Gallon Ken Butler Jr. return for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
30.6%
Garrett Smith sacked by Ryan George for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-2
30.6%
Garrett Smith sacked by Antwione Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-3
30.5%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Antonio Glover return for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3FG
17 plays · 31 yds · 5:3770% → 70%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
30.3%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-10
30.3%
K. Ellison rush left for loss of 5 yards to the ULM44, out-of-bounds (Robinson, Cody;Johnson, M), PENALTY GS holding (R. Byrd) 10 yards to the ULM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+7
30.5%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
30.4%
K. Ellison PL pass incomplete to D. Keaton (Pipkins, Lenzy), PENALTY ULM offside (Johnson, G) 5 yards to the ULM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
30.4%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete, broken up by Mitch LaneSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
30.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+5
30.4%
K. Ellison sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ULM39 (Johnson, M), PENALTY ULM offside (Johnson, M) 5 yards to the ULM26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+13
30.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 13 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
30.3%
K. Ellison PL pass incomplete to 9, PENALTY ULM offside 5 yards to the ULM8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 5
OPP 8
-14
30.3%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 22 Kevin Ellison fumbled, forced by Ben Banogu, recovered by GeoSo Kevin Ellison GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 19
OPP 22
-10
30.3%
K. Ellison rush up middle for 4 yards to the ULM18 (Johnson, G), PENALTY GS holding (D. Foreman) 10 yards to the ULM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 29
OPP 32
+12
30.3%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
30.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 17
OPP 20
-10
30.5%
K. Ellison rush up middle for no gain to the ULM20 (Caldwell, Trey;Hunter, Tre'), PENALTY GS holding (A. Kwon) 10 yards to the ULM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 27
OPP 30
+18
30.5%
Wesley Fields run for 18 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
30.4%
Alex Hanks 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
31.0%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
31.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 8 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
31.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared Mapps, broken up by Matt DobsonSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
31.2%
Kaylon Watson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
31.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
31.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 12 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
32.1%
Garrett Smith sacked by Jay Ellison and Ryan George for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+2
31.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+5
31.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive offside (D Gallon) to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-5
31.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
31.3%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
30.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by D GallonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3670% → 79%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
29.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
29.4%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+1
29.4%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
29.4%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
29.3%
LA Ramsby run for no gain to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
29.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
29.9%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
29.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 11 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
29.2%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
20.7%
Matt Breida run for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:5124% → 24%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
23.5%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
23.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 6 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
24.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 5 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
24.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
24.4%
Kaylon Watson run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
24.4%
Garrett Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
24.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 14 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
24.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 4 yds to the GeoSo 24 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (D'Marius Gillespie) to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 16
OPP 34
+11
24.7%
Garrett Smith run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
24.7%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-4
24.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
24.0%
Craig Ford 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:3877% → 87%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
22.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, substitution infraction (Ryan Longoria) to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+22
22.9%
Matt Breida run for 22 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
21.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
21.8%
K. Ellison sideline pass incomplete to K. Williams (Caldwell, Trey), PENALTY ULM offside (Johnson, M) 5 yards to the ULM46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+45
21.7%
Favian Upshaw run for 45 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.0%
LA Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
15.5%
Kaylon Watson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
15.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
15.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Jared MappsSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
15.3%
Chris Qualls punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Derek Keaton at the GeoSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:0787% → 92%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
13.4%
Wesley Fields run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
13.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
12.9%
K. Ellison sideline pass incomplete to D. Keaton, PENALTY ULM offside (Moorehead, C) 5 yards to the ULM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+15
12.6%
Matt Breida run for 15 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
12.6%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
12.5%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to James DeanSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+24
13.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Keigan Williams for 24 yds to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 6
OPP 0
+5
12.5%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the LaMon 1 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the LaMon 1Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.0%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10TD
13 plays · 50 yds · 1:118% → 14%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
50
0
7.5%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Antwione WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
50
+22
7.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 22 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
8.0%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+6
6.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 6 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
7.9%
Garrett Smith run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
7.0%
DeVontae McNeal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.9%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to DeVontae McNeal, broken up by Antwione WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
10.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12MISSED FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:0989% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
10.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+2
10.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+20
10.9%
Matt Breida run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
10.4%
LA Ramsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+26
10.6%
LA Ramsby run for 26 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
10.2%
K. Ellison sideline pass incomplete to M. Cambell, PENALTY ULM pass interference (Pipkins, Lenzy) 15 yards to the ULM22, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-9
9.9%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the LaMon 16 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ryan Longoria) to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 31
+6
10.1%
LA Ramsby run for 6 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+12
10.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
11.1%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
9.9%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the LaMon 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-3
9.9%
Montay Crockett run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
10.5%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the LaMon 13Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+31
6.8%
Alex Hanks 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:548% → 19%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+69
8.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 69 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
10.5%
Kaylon Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
18.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 12 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
13.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
12.9%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
12.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 4
50
+8
13.0%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
12.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
12.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+3
13.0%
LA Ramsby run for 3 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
13.9%
Matt Flynn punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
14.0%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Darius Jones return for no gain to the LaMon 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
11.0%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
11.0%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-3
10.7%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
12.1%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Derek KeatonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
13.7%
Smith, Garrett PR pass incomplete to Holley, Ajalen, PENALTY GS holding (D. White) 10 yards to the ULM46, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
14.7%
DeVontae McNeal run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
15.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
14.9%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Matt Dobson return for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:0090% → 79%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
10.1%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
10.0%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+56
20.9%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted for a TD Junior Williams return for 56 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:0780% → 92%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
20.5%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
20.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
19.7%
LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-2
19.8%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 10
50
+9
20.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 9 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
7.8%
LA Ramsby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
11.4%
Garrett Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
11.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 3 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-6
11.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaMon Garrett SmithSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 27
OWN 5
0
10.6%
Chris Qualls punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Derek Keaton at the LaMon 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:4994% → 99%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
5.6%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
5.6%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
5.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 13 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
5.6%
LA Ramsby run for 5 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
1.0%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:041% → 5%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.3%
Kaylon Watson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
1.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 16 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to D'Marius GillespieSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+28
1.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 28 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
1.7%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
1.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+11
1.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 11 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+9
1.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bernard Dawson) to the GeoSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23TD
12 plays · 44 yds · 3:2996% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
3.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+8
3.8%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
3.8%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+13
2.4%
Wesley Fields run for 13 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
2.4%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
2.4%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
1.8%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the LaMon 4Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
0.5%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.3%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:59
LA Ramsby run for 41 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q4 14:06
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted for a TD Junior Williams return for 56 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 0:20
Garrett Smith pass complete to Harley Scioneaux for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com