2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreCIT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:25 · LA Ramsby run for 2 yds to the Citad 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:35: Matt Breida run for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:43: Matt Breida run for 87 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:50: Kevin Ellison run for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:47: Evan McField run for 60 yds for a TD, (Eric Goins KICK) — CIT win probability +1.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CIT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:17: LA Ramsby run for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CIT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:46GASO 4th & 4 at CIT 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call94.6%−<0.192% to makePunt94.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 11:41CIT 4th & 2 at GASO 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.4%57% to convertField goal5.2%−0.225% to makePunt5.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:25GASO 4th & 1 at CIT 11, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%71% to convertField goal93.9%−0.187% to makePunt93.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 15:00CIT 4th & 6 at CIT 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q2 10:51CIT 4th & 7 at CIT 39, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q2 2:21GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 36, up 31Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 14:46GASO 4th & 22 at GASO 23, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 6:17GASO 4th & 1 at CIT 7, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%70% to convertField goal97.8%−0.591% to makePunt96.5%−1.8average punt
- Q3 4:54GASO 4th & 7 at CIT 23, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%70% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:48CIT 4th & 5 at CIT 30, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 12:43CIT 4th & 3 at GASO 35, down 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%53% to convertField goal0.1%−0.145% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:11GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 33, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CIT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 1:25GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:35GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:43GASO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:50GASO Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:47CIT Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.4%97% to makeGo for two1.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:17GASO Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:50GASO Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:11CIT Touchdown, down 35 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCITDrive 1INT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
GASODrive 2FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4496% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 3DOWNS8 plays · 36 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
95.7%
Dominique Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 45 Dominique Allen fumbled, recovered by Citad Dominique AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD16 plays · 55 yds · 7:0095% → 95%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
95.2%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Mark Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the Citad 49Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+17
95.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 17 yds to the Citad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
95.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 7 yds to the Citad 25Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
95.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 7 yds to the Citad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:206% → 6%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+13
94.5%
Will Vanvick punt for 52 yds , Derek Keaton returns for 13 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD5 plays · 66 yds · 2:1394% → 96%
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
94.5%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Bj Johnson for 10 yds to the Citad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 1:394% → 4%
GASODrive 8TD1 play · 87 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 9INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+19
97.5%
Dominique Allen pass intercepted Darrius White return for 19 yds to the Citad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD7 plays · 35 yds · 3:2498% → 99%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
97.9%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 16 yds to the Citad 19 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Citad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · 57 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+13
99.1%
Evan McField run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 31 Evan McField fumbled, forced by Logan Hunt, recovered by GeoSo Riyahd Jones , return for 13 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 2:21
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 41 yds , DeAndre Schoultz returns for no gain to the Citad 23 DeAndre Schoultz fumbled, recovered by Citad DeAndre SchoultzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-12
99.5%
Cam Jackson rush L for loss of 1 yard to the CIT22 (D. Gallon), PENALTY CIT clipping (Kyle Weaver) 12 yards to the CIT11, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
CITDrive 15TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:170% → 2%
GASODrive 16TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3098% → 100%
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to LA Ramsby for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
98.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 21 yds to the Citad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
98.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Ryan Longoria for 7 yds to the Citad 42Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
98.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Derek Keaton, broken up by DeVonta DelaneySimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
98.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 9 yds to the Citad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
98.3%
M. Breida rush R for 5 yards to the CIT11 (Nick Willis), PENALTY GS holding (T. Boynton) 10 yards to the CIT26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 20
OPP 26
0
98.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Bj Johnson, broken up by Malik DiggsSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+19
98.3%
Matt Breida run for 19 yds to the Citad 7 Matt Breida fumbled, forced by Dondray Copeland, recovered by GeoSoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 17FUMBLE3 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
GASODrive 18FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Bj Johnson, broken up by DeVonta DelaneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:48100% → 100%
CITDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Tyler Renew run for no gain to the GeoSo 42 Tyler Renew fumbled, recovered by Citad Tyler RenewSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22FUMBLE1 play · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+66
99.9%
Chaz Thornton run for 66 yds Chaz Thornton fumbled, forced by Tyus Carter, recovered by Citad Malik DiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 23TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:570% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 44 yds , DeAndre Schoultz returns for no gain to the Citad 33 THE CITADEL Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Citad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 25FUMBLE10 plays · 46 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+29
100.0%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Vinny Miller for 29 yds to the Citad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
100.0%
Dominique Allen pass complete to Jorian Jordan for 13 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
100.0%
Dominique Allen sacked by Ian Bush and Ken Butler Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 17
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Dominique Allen run for no gain to the GeoSo 41 Dominique Allen fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Patrick FloweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:35
Matt Breida run for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 8:43
Matt Breida run for 87 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q3 11:47
Evan McField run for 60 yds for a TD, (Eric Goins KICK)
-1.7