Try the model
PV

Prairie View A&M 24 at Texas State 63

TXST
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadPV aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scorePV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:56: Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 65 yds for a TD, (Jack Rhoades intercepted ) — TXST win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 5:48: Owen Hoolihan 30 yd FG GOOD — PV win probability +0.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: PV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:39: Chris Nutall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:54: De'Auntre Smiley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Owen Hoolihan KICK) — TXST win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:58: Tyler Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK) — TXST win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3PV made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 9:54PV 4th & 16 at PV 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48PV 4th & 5 at TXST 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00PV 4th & 13 at TXST 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00PV 4th & 1 at TXST 15, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:16PV 4th & 1 at PV 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:58PV 4th & 9 at PV 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:35PV 4th & 15 at TXST 28, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:02PV 4th & 12 at TXST 44, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:59TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 40, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:26TXST 4th & 3 at PV 16, up 46
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:26PV 4th & 20 at PV 23, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:44TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 15, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:21PV 4th & 9 at TXST 13, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:32TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:54TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:39TXST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:16PV Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:58TXST Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:42TXST Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:18PV Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:02TXST Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:44PV Touchdown, down 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:2896% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
96.2%
Robert Lowe run for 13 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
96.2%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+49
96.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 49 yds to the PraVw 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
96.2%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the PraVw 1Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Johnta Hebert for 7 yds to the PraVw 32 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the PraVw 22Similar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 13
OWN 22
+18
96.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 18 yds to the PraVw 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
96.0%
Johnta Hebert run for a loss of 6 yards to the PraVw 34Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+15
96.0%
Green, Trey pass incomplete to Smith, Cameron, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (NIkocevic, R) 15 yards to the PVAM49, 1ST DOWN PVAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
96.0%
Trey Green pass complete to KhaDarel Hodge for 16 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
96.0%
Trey Green sacked by Damani Alexcee for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 39 Trey Green fumbled, recovered by TexSt Trey McGowan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:4296% → 96%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
95.8%
Tyler Jones run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler Jones , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
50
+34
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 34 yds to the PraVw 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
95.9%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the PraVw 8Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 2
OPP 8
-1
95.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for a loss of 1 yard to the PraVw 9Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
96.0%
Chris Nutall run for 9 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.9%
Johnta Hebert run for 16 yds to the PraVw 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
95.8%
Johnta Hebert run for 3 yds to the PraVw 44Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
95.8%
Trey Green pass incomplete to KhaDarel HodgeSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
95.9%
PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, delay of game (Trey Green) to the PraVw 39Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-4
95.9%
Trey Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the PraVw 35Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+11
95.9%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 41 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 11 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
96.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 65 yds for a TD, (Jack Rhoades intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 6FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:004% → 4%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
96.4%
Trey Green pass complete to Johnta Hebert for 18 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
96.4%
Courtney Brown run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+24
96.4%
Trey Green pass complete to Johnta Hebert for 24 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.3%
Trey Green pass incomplete to KhaDarel HodgeSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
96.3%
KhaDarel Hodge run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
96.3%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Demarquo Lastrappe, broken up by David MimsSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
95.8%
Owen Hoolihan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0996% → 97%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.0%
Chris Nutall run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.0%
Jafus Gaines run for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
96.0%
Tyler Jones run for 14 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Jafus GainesSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
96.1%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+25
96.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 10 yds to the TEXSTATE 47 for a 1ST down PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, personal foul (Foster Brown II) to the PraVw 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
96.1%
Chris Nutall run for 7 yds to the PraVw 25Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
96.1%
Chris Nutall run for 7 yds to the PraVw 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
96.1%
Chris Nutall run for 11 yds to the PraVw 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.3%
Chris Nutall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:294% → 2%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
96.5%
Trey Green run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+7
96.7%
Trey Green pass complete to Cameron Smith for 7 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-6
96.8%
Trey Green pass complete to Rayshaun Givins for 4 yds to the TexSt 33 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, illegal block (Cameron Smith) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+2
96.9%
Fred Anderson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 41
+95
98.3%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 36 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for 95 yds for a TD, (Jack Rhoades pass to Tim Gay for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:061% → 1%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.6%
Johnta Hebert run for 14 yds to the PraVw 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Trey Green pass incomplete to KhaDarel HodgeSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
98.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 13 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
98.5%
Trey Green pass complete to Rayshaun Givins for 9 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+15
98.5%
Green, Trey deep out pass incomplete to Bell, Quinton, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Mims, David) 15 yards to the TXST24, 1ST DOWN PVAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
98.4%
Fred Anderson run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-2
98.4%
Trey Green pass complete to Johnta Hebert for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
98.5%
Fred Anderson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+4
97.9%
De'Auntre Smiley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.5%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
98.5%
Trey Green pass complete to Raymond Jackson for 7 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
98.8%
De'Auntre Smiley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Owen Hoolihan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:3199% → 99%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+22
98.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Demun Mercer for 22 yds to the PraVw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 12 yds to the PraVw 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the PraVw 23Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 6 yds to the PraVw 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the PraVw 12Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+8
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the PraVw 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the PraVw 2Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the PraVw 1Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Johnta Hebert run for 3 yds to the PraVw 28Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.1%
Trey Green pass complete to Cameron Smith for 4 yds to the PraVw 32Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 2 yds to the PraVw 34Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
99.2%
Tommie Robins run for a loss of 3 yards to the PraVw 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
99.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 22 yds to the PraVw 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
99.2%
Chris Nutall run for 8 yds to the PraVw 1Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.2%
Chris Nutall run for no gain to the PraVw 1Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Johnta Hebert run for 1 yd to the PraVw 26Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Trey Green pass incomplete to KhaDarel HodgeSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Trey Green pass incomplete to KhaDarel HodgeSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Lawrence White for 9 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Demun MercerSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+27
99.5%
Robert Lowe run for 27 yds to the PraVw 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.5%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the PraVw 22Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
99.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Jafus Gaines for 22 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.7%
Trey Green pass complete to Quinton Bell for 8 yds to the PraVw 33Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+19
99.6%
Johnta Hebert run for 19 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.6%
Johnta Hebert run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Cameron Smith for 4 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Andrew Michael for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Andrew Michael for 27 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Trey Green pass complete to Keylon LaSalle for 10 yds for a TD, (Owen Hoolihan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:14100% → 100%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
99.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Chris Nutall for 25 yds to the PraVw 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+60
99.6%
Lumi Kaba 60 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:191% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Johnta Hebert run for no gain to the PraVw 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Demarquo LastrappeSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+26
99.5%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 26 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.5%
Johnta Hebert run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
99.5%
Johnta Hebert run for 14 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Rayshaun GivinsSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-6
99.4%
Courtney Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 16
OPP 29
+1
99.5%
Trey Green run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+45
99.5%
Owen Hoolihan 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
99.7%
Tyler Jones run for 24 yds to the PraVw 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
99.7%
Chris Nutall run for 16 yds to the PraVw 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the PraVw 37Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+15
99.7%
Jones, Tyler deep out pass incomplete to Mercer, Demun, PENALTY PVAM pass interference (Jordan, Kenneth) 15 yards to the PVAM22, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.7%
Chris Nutall run for 1 yd to the PraVw 21Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
99.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Chris Nutall for 21 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.8%
Trey Green pass complete to Johnta Hebert for 14 yds to the PraVw 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Courtney Brown run for 2 yds to the PraVw 41Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Trey Green pass complete to Johnta Hebert for 2 yds to the PraVw 43Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+15
99.8%
Green, Trey middle pass incomplete to Smith, Cameron, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Pearson, R) 15 yards to the TXST42, 1ST DOWN PVAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Raymond JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Quinton BellSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.8%
Courtney Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brandon McDowell at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
99.8%
Chris Nutall run for 8 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+14
99.8%
Chris Nutall run for 14 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
99.8%
White, Connor crossing pass complete to Pletschette, E for 31 yards to the PVAM37 (Jordan, Kenneth), PENALTY TXST unsportsmanlike conduct (Crawford, Zach) 15 yards to the TXST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+4
99.8%
Demun Mercer run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 21
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Connor White pass incomplete to Jack RhoadesSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 21
OWN 21
+19
99.8%
Connor White pass complete to Demun Mercer for 19 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+2
99.8%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Chris Nutall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
Chris Nutall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-6
99.9%
Chris Nutall run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 45 Chris Nutall fumbled, forced by Jalen Thibodeaux, recovered by PraVw DeVohn ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Trey Green pass complete to KhaDarel Hodge for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+18
99.9%
Fred Anderson run for 18 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
99.9%
Trey Green pass complete to KhaDarel Hodge for 14 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.9%
Fred Anderson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 9 Fred Anderson fumbled, forced by Tim Gay, recovered by TexSt Dallas McClartySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23MISSED FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:04100% → 100%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+15
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 15 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for no gain to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Connor White run for 9 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Chris French for 7 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+11
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 11 yds to the PraVw 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Connor White pass incomplete to Stedman MayberrySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+20
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 20 yds to the PraVw 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for a loss of 1 yard to the PraVw 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 5 yds to the PraVw 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Chris French for 3 yds to the PraVw 16Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Lumi Kaba 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Trey Green pass incomplete to Quinton Bell, broken up by Clarence Guidry IIISimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
100.0%
Courtney Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the PraVw 15Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+18
100.0%
Trey Green pass complete to Andrew Michael for 18 yds to the PraVw 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-11
100.0%
Trey Green sacked by Roosevelt Pearson for a loss of 11 yards to the PraVw 22Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 21
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
Courtney Brown run for 1 yd to the PraVw 23Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 20
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Trey Green sacked by Andrew Aneke for 0 yards to the PraVw 23Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 20
OWN 23
-3
100.0%
Owen Hoolihan punt for 44 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 28 Brandon McDowell fumbled, recovered by PraVw Nick BrewerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 25TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Trey Green pass complete to Demarquo Lastrappe for 28 yds for a TD, (Owen Hoolihan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.9%
Mayberry, Sted rush over right end for 10 yards to the TXST35 (Reynolds, T.), PENALTY TXST holding (French, Chris) 10 yards to the TXST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Stedman Mayberry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-8
99.9%
White, Connor sideline pass complete to Best, C.J. for 7 yards to the TXST24 (Skinner, Will), PENALTY TXST pass interference 8 yards to the TXST9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 26
OWN 9
-2
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 28
OWN 7
+8
99.9%
Connor White pass complete to Stedman Mayberry for 8 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Lumi Kaba punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 39 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass complete to Andrew Michael for 5 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
100.0%
Fred Anderson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+11
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass complete to Andrew Michael for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass complete to Cameron Smith for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+13
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass complete to Anthony Wiltz for 13 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass incomplete to Quinton BellSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-13
100.0%
Courtney Brown run for 2 yds to the TexSt 14 PRAIRIE VIEW Penalty, UR (Denzel Lewis) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 23
OPP 29
0
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass incomplete to Skyler MooreSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 23
OPP 29
+15
100.0%
Smiley, D. pass incomplete, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Fitzgerald, T) 15 yards to the TXST14, 1ST DOWN PVAM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
100.0%
Fred Anderson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-1
100.0%
Frank Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 13Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass incomplete to Anthony WiltzSimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 9
OPP 13
0
100.0%
De'Auntre Smiley pass incomplete to Skyler Moore, broken up by Javante O'RoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 10 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Tyler Siudzinski run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:39
Chris Nutall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 7:56
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 65 yds for a TD, (Jack Rhoades intercepted )
+0.6
FG · Q1 5:48
Owen Hoolihan 30 yd FG GOOD
-0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com