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HOW

Howard 0 at App State 49

APP
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreHOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:43 · John Fleck punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+28.0Score differential+22.2Pregame prior+10.3Blowout margin+10.3Garbage-time factor+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:28: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 5 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +2.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:12: Marcus Cox run for 68 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +6.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:44: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 50 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK) — APP win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:53: Terrence Upshaw run for 11 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST down — APP win probability +2.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 5:10: Simms McElfresh 17 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick) — APP win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOW made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15APP 4th & 1 at APP 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:15APP 4th & 7 at HOW 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:22HOW 4th & 1 at APP 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−0.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:22HOW 4th & 8 at APP 29, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:21APP 4th & 8 at APP 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:08HOW 4th & 10 at HOW 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:28HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:44HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43HOW 4th & 10 at HOW 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 36, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00HOW 4th & 1 at APP 19, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:05APP 4th & 12 at APP 45, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:47HOW 4th & 8 at HOW 36, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:27APP 4th & 1 at HOW 10, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:27APP 4th & 6 at HOW 6, up 49
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:28APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:12APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:44APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:10APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:44APP Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:19APP Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:29APP Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOWDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.1%
Aquanius Freeman run for 2 yds to the Howrd 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
70.1%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Aquanius Freeman for 9 yds to the Howrd 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
70.1%
Aquanius Freeman run for 3 yds to the Howrd 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
70.1%
Aquanius Freeman run for 4 yds to the Howrd 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-3
70.1%
Aquanius Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+2
70.1%
John Fleck punt for 38 yds , Bobo Beathard returns for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:4770% → 73%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
69.7%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
69.8%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
69.7%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 2 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+8
69.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
69.8%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
70.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 9 yds to the Howrd 46Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
70.1%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the Howrd 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
70.1%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the Howrd 35Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
70.1%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-4
70.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for a loss of 4 yards to the Howrd 39Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+11
69.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 11 yds to the Howrd 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
70.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 8 yds to the Howrd 20Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+10
70.1%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Lewis, Ike, PENALTY HOW personal foul (KEBE,Ibrahima) 10 yards to the HOW10, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
70.1%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Howrd 5Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 5 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
71.6%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Robert Mercer, broken up by Latrell GibbsSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-3
71.6%
Kalen Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 15Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+43
71.9%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Aquanius Freeman for 28 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Alex Gray) to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
70.8%
Aquanius Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+6
71.0%
Aquanius Freeman run for 6 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
70.9%
Kalen Johnson run for 4 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
71.2%
Kalen Johnson run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
70.4%
Aquanius Freeman run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
70.4%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Aquanius FreemanSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+2
70.9%
Aquanius Freeman run for 2 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
71.3%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Aquanius FreemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
72.6%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon Meadors, broken up by Travon HuntSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
72.5%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
72.3%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
71.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 40 yds , Jalen Avery returns for no gain to the Howrd 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
72.3%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Rodney Tyson for a loss of 2 yards to the Howrd 27Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+2
72.5%
Rodney Tyson run for 2 yds to the Howrd 29Similar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
72.8%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Rodney TysonSimilar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
73.1%
John Fleck punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:4873% → 79%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
72.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
72.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 20 yds to the AppSt 38 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
73.0%
Taylor Lamb run for 6 yds to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
73.2%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+68
79.3%
Marcus Cox run for 68 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4422% → 21%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
78.1%
Kalen Johnson sacked by John Law for a loss of 4 yards to the Howrd 21Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
78.3%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Robert Mercer for 6 yds to the Howrd 27Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
78.3%
Kalen Johnson run for 7 yds to the Howrd 34Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
79.1%
HOWARD Penalty, delay of game (Kalen Johnson) to the Howrd 29Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
79.4%
John Fleck punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:3481% → 90%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
80.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 19 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.1%
Terrence Upshaw run for 1 yd to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
81.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Barrett Burns for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
50
+50
90.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 50 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Aquanius Freeman run for no gain to the Howrd 25Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.2%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Aquanius Freeman for 2 yds to the Howrd 27Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
88.3%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Aquanius Freeman for 4 yds to the Howrd 31Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
88.1%
HOWARD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Howrd 26Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+11
88.3%
John Fleck punt for 38 yds , Simms McElfresh returns for 11 yds to the AppSt 37 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, IB (10 Yards) to the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:4390% → 97%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
90.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 11 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
90.5%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
90.4%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the Howrd 47Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+1
90.3%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Gray, Alex, PENALTY HOW pass interference (HUNT,Travon) 1 yards to the HOW46, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.5%
Josh Boyd run for no gain to the Howrd 46Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+29
90.5%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to Burns, Barrett, PENALTY HOW pass interference (ANGLIN,Elijah) 29 yards to the HOW17, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.6%
Simms McElfresh 17 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
97.2%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Myles Williams for 5 yds to the Howrd 18Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-3
97.1%
Kalen Johnson sacked by Anthony Flory and Osvaldo Sombo for a loss of 3 yards to the Howrd 15Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
97.2%
John Fleck punt for 83 yds, downed at the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FUMBLE
10 plays · 63 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
96.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+5
96.9%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+6
96.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for 6 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
97.1%
Ricky Fergerson run for 7 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-5
96.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+8
97.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 8 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
97.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 9 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+14
96.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
97.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Josh Boyd for 12 yds Josh Boyd fumbled, forced by Jalen Day, recovered by Howrd Ghafona IduweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Aquanius FreemanSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Jalen AverySimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Kalen Johnson pass incomplete to Tamlin AntoineSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
98.4%
John Fleck punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:1598% → 98%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 14 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
98.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 7 yds to the Howrd 44Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
98.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon Meadors, broken up by DeAndre PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1498% → 99%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
98.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+14
98.2%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Jaquil Capel for 14 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 14:58
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+13
98.1%
Taylor Lamb run for 13 yds to the Howrd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
98.3%
Jalin Moore run for 26 yds to the Howrd 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
98.3%
Jalin Moore run for 6 yds to the Howrd 16Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-4
98.3%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Howrd 20Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 16INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Aquanius Freeman for 5 yds to the Howrd 30Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.0%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Matthew Colvin for 6 yds to the Howrd 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Kalen Johnson pass intercepted Latrell Gibbs return for no gain to the Howrd 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:3299% → 100%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
99.2%
JP Caruso pass complete to Ricky Fergerson for 19 yds to the Howrd 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.2%
JP Caruso run for 4 yds to the Howrd 24Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
99.2%
Ricky Fergerson run for 7 yds to the Howrd 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.2%
Josh Boyd run for 5 yds to the Howrd 12Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
99.3%
JP Caruso pass complete to Deltron Hopkins for 5 yds to the Howrd 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Jalin Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Aquanius Freeman run for 2 yds to the Howrd 27Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.5%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Matthew Colvin for 8 yds to the Howrd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.5%
Aquanius Freeman run for 7 yds to the Howrd 42Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.4%
Aquanius Freeman run for 2 yds to the Howrd 44Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
99.4%
Kalen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Howrd 36 Kalen Johnson fumbled, recovered by Howrd Kalen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.5%
John Fleck punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
Jalin Moore run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
99.6%
JP Caruso run for 10 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.6%
Jalin Moore run for 4 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
99.6%
Jalin Moore run for 8 yds to the Howrd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
99.6%
JP Caruso pass complete to Jaylan Barbour for 11 yds to the Howrd 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.6%
JP Caruso pass incomplete to Jaylan BarbourSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Josh Boyd run for no gain to the Howrd 37Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.8%
JP Caruso pass complete to Isaiah Lewis for 37 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Ricquaz Brannon run for 4 yds to the Howrd 29Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+43
99.8%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Jalen Avery for 43 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.8%
Ricquaz Brannon run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
99.8%
Kalen Johnson pass complete to Ricquaz Brannon for 5 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
99.8%
Kalen Johnson run for 2 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-3
99.8%
Ricquaz Brannon run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.8%
JP Caruso run for 4 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
Josh Boyd run for 5 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
99.8%
Josh Boyd run for 2 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Eric Davidson run for no gain to the AppSt 33Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
99.8%
JP Caruso run for 14 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-5
99.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
Eric Davidson run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
JP Caruso pass complete to Nikia Cathey for 6 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
99.9%
JP Caruso pass incomplete to Deltron HopkinsSimilar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Donnell Pleasant run for no gain to the Howrd 20Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
100.0%
Da'Vaun Johnson pass complete to Matthew Colvin for 14 yds to the Howrd 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Donnell Pleasant run for no gain to the Howrd 34Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Donnell Pleasant run for 4 yds to the Howrd 38Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
99.9%
HOWARD Penalty, false start (Myles Williams) to the Howrd 33Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
Da'Vaun Johnson pass complete to Ricquaz Brannon for 3 yds to the Howrd 36Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
100.0%
John Fleck punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
99.9%
JP Caruso run for 34 yds to the Howrd 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
Jalin Moore run for 15 yds to the Howrd 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
100.0%
Eric Davidson run for 2 yds to the Howrd 17Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+7
100.0%
Eric Davidson run for 7 yds to the Howrd 10Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Eric Davidson run for no gain to the Howrd 10Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+1
99.9%
Eric Davidson run for 1 yd to the Howrd 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
100.0%
Josh Boyd run for 3 yds to the Howrd 6Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
100.0%
Josh Boyd run for 5 yds to the Howrd 1Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
100.0%
JP Caruso run for a loss of 5 yards to the Howrd 6Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
99.9%
Jalin Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Howrd 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
100.0%
Ricquaz Brannon run for 1 yd to the Howrd 8Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+4
100.0%
Ricquaz Brannon run for 4 yds to the Howrd 12Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+1
100.0%
Ricquaz Brannon run for 1 yd to the Howrd 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:44
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 50 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 5:10
Simms McElfresh 17 Yd Run (Zach Matics Kick)
+6.2
TD · Q2 13:12
Marcus Cox run for 68 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com