2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:11 · Anthony Melchiori punt for 60 yds , A.J. Coney returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 2 AKRON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Akron 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:25: Conor Hundley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +3.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:45: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:44: Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 4 yds to the KntSt 35 — KENT win probability +2.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:16: Robert Stein 23 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +8.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:34: Robert Stein 20 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 10:58AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q1 9:30KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snapGo for it24.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q1 7:08AKR 4th & 1 at KENT 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.9%71% to convertField goal74.7%−0.362% to makePunt74.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it22.3%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q2 12:01KENT 4th & 10 at AKR 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snapGo for it22.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal22.6%−0.428% to makePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q2 6:11AKR 4th & 1 at KENT 20, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.4% before the snapGo for it78.2%71% to convertField goalTheir call77.1%−1.175% to makePunt73.8%−4.4average punt
- Q2 6:11KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snapGo for it19.2%−2.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.2%average punt
- Q2 2:10AKR 4th & 6 at KENT 43, up 7Close callPunted · 78.1% before the snapGo for it78.0%40% to convertField goal77.2%−0.828% to makePuntTheir call77.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:16AKR 4th & 6 at KENT 6, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call92.4%91% to makePunt87.1%−5.3average punt
- Q4 12:34AKR 4th & 2 at KENT 2, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snapGo for it96.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%−0.894% to makePunt92.1%−4.2average punt
- Q4 12:34KENT 4th & 3 at AKR 40, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%52% to convertField goal1.1%−0.434% to makePunt1.0%−0.5average punt
- Q4 12:34KENT 4th & 25 at AKR 46, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.77% to convertField goal1.3%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 2:01AKR 4th & 3 at KENT 35, up 20Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%53% to convertField goal99.2%−0.245% to makePuntTheir call99.0%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:42KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 4, down 20Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 0:25AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.3%97% to makeGo for two76.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:45AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.7%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1FUMBLE10 plays · 61 yds · 3:2225% → 26%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+45
74.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for 45 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
74.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 8 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
73.7%
George Bollas pass complete to Matt Bahr for no gain Matt Bahr fumbled, forced by Jatavis Brown, recovered by Akron Bryce CheekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
73.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 15 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 9:30
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+15
73.7%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to TYSON, Zaquon, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 15 yards to the KENT31, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD15 plays · 77 yds · 6:4373% → 77%
Q1 7:08
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+9
72.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 9 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
73.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
74.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 10 yds to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+7
73.7%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to DAVIS, Imani, PENALTY KENT holding 7 yards to the KENT7, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2524% → 23%
AKRDrive 6FUMBLE5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
77.0%
Thomas Woodson sacked by Theodore Eboigbe for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 43 Thomas Woodson fumbled, recovered by KntSt Kalil Morris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
74.6%
George Bollas sacked by Jamal Marcus for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+5
75.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Zaquon Tyson for 5 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+43
76.2%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 43 yds for a touchback KENT ST Penalty, false start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8MISSED FG9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3477% → 77%
Q2 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+11
76.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 11 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
76.8%
REARDON, Colin pass incomplete to JAMES, Raekwon (EDWARDS, Van), PENALTY KENT holding 10 yards to the KENT10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-5
77.1%
Colin Reardon sacked by Se'Von Pittman for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 5Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 25
OWN 5
+4
77.9%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Johnny Woods for 4 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 21
OWN 9
-7
78.3%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 60 yds , A.J. Coney returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 2 AKRON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Akron 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 43 yds · 2:0377% → 77%
Q2 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+37
76.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 37 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5523% → 20%
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+5
80.0%
George Bollas run for 5 yds to the KntSt 11 George Bollas fumbled, forced by Darryl Monroe, recovered by Akron Se'Von PittmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12TD1 play · 11 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
88.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
84.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 4 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
84.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
50
0
83.3%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Ernest Calhoun, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14FG27 plays · 69 yds · 12:4486% → 94%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
85.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 6 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+24
85.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 9 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
86.5%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, PENALTY KENT offside 5 yards to the KENT30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
86.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 12 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-10
86.6%
HUNDLEY, Conor rush for 9 yards to the KENT2 (DELLINGER, Matt), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the KENT21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 21
-10
86.5%
WOODSON, T. rush for 9 yards to the KENT12 (HOLLEY, Nate), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the KENT31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 29
OPP 33
+15
85.8%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome (MONDAY, D.), PENALTY KENT pass interference 15 yards to the KENT18, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
86.6%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, PENALTY KENT pass interference 3 yards to the KENT2, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16FG10 plays · 38 yds · 4:3895% → 99%
Q3 0:55
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
94.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 9 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT14 plays · 29 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
98.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 18 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
98.4%
George Bollas pass complete to P.J. Simmons for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+9
98.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Johnny Woods for 9 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
98.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 7 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-10
98.1%
DURHAM, Trayion rush for 23 yards to the AKRON1 (CHEEK, Bryce), PENALTY KENT holding 10 yards to the AKRON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 13
OPP 34
-12
98.2%
George Bollas sacked by Darryl Monroe for a loss of 12 yards to the Akron 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 42 yds · 5:0699% → 100%
Q4 2:01
4TH & 3
OWN 0
0
99.5%
PAUL, Zach punt 32 yards to the KENT3, downed, PENALTY AKRON personal foul off-setting, PENALTY KENT personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
AKRDrive 20END OF GAME1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:45
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q3 2:16
Robert Stein 23 yd FG GOOD
+8
TD · Q1 0:25
Conor Hundley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+3.5