Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 31 at Buffalo 26

BUF
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · UB Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:25 · Logan Laurent punt for 42 yds, downed at the Buff 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+5.2Home team on offense−13.5Score differential−5.1Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:13: Marquis Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +12.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Blake Frohnapfel run for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +13.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:50: Adam Mitcheson 23 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +4.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:34: Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — BUF win probability +28.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:13: Logan Laurent 37 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +6.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:52BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:16MASS 4th & 4 at BUF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:46BUF 4th & 1 at MASS 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:42MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:03BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:21MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:17BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:13MASS 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:37BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 30, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:50MASS 4th & 8 at BUF 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:50BUF 4th & 5 at MASS 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:25MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48BUF 4th & 3 at MASS 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−2.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−4.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:39MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 49, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.5 ptsPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−6.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:40BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:45MASS 4th & 11 at midfield, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:19BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:13MASS 4th & 7 at BUF 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−25.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:16MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:15MASS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:38BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:09BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:13MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:34BUF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0566% → 66%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
66.0%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
65.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:1934% → 35%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
65.8%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
65.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
65.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+18
65.9%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 18 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
65.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
65.5%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
64.6%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2265% → 64%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
64.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 11 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
64.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
64.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
64.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the UMass 44Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
64.1%
Joe Licata run for no gain to the UMass 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:2537% → 39%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
63.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
63.3%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+47
61.3%
Marquis Young run for 47 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1961% → 63%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
61.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
61.0%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
60.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
60.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 40 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
61.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the UMass 21Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
60.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
63.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 18 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:2138% → 39%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
61.9%
Marquis Young run for 11 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
61.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted by Brandon Berry, returned for 13 yds to the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:1963% → 63%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
63.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
63.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
62.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
62.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
62.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.0%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
63.4%
Adam Mitcheson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:2837% → 39%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
62.9%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 22Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
62.7%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+5
62.8%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+30
62.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 30 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
61.2%
Marquis Young run for 15 yds to the Buff 26 Marquis Young fumbled, forced by Nick Gilbo, recovered by Buff Boise RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0262% → 63%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
62.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
62.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
62.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
63.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
63.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
62.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5338% → 38%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
62.4%
Marquis Young run for 16 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
61.7%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+22
61.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Andrews Dadeboe return for 22 yds to the UMass 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:3164% → 68%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
64.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
64.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 0
OPP 6
+4
65.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to R. Willoughby, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Dudley-Giles, Trey) 4 yards to the UMASS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BUFFALO.Similar
Q2 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0634% → 34%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
65.9%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
66.4%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
65.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Brandon HowardSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
66.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:3067% → 66%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
66.5%
Joe Licata run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+8
66.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+15
66.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 15 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
67.9%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 14
OWN 47
0
66.6%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
65.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
65.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3434% → 33%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
66.3%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 11Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+1
66.4%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 12Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+6
67.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 6 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
67.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5668% → 67%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
67.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
67.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+4
66.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 39 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 4 yds to the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:5634% → 46%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
66.5%
Andy Isabella run for 6 yds to the UMass 30 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 20Similar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 14
OWN 20
-3
66.7%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 17Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 17
OWN 17
+20
66.8%
Marquis Young run for 20 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
65.8%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+49
64.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 49 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
63.2%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
63.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 6 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.0%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.5%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17INT
12 plays · 71 yds · 1:5258% → 62%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
57.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 40 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
62.0%
Licata, Joe pass incomplete to Schreck, Mason, PENALTY BUFFALO pass interference (Schreck, Mason) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 25
50
+14
58.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 14 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+6
59.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 6 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
59.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+9
58.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
61.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
61.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 17 yds to the UMass 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
61.9%
Joe Licata pass intercepted by Trey-Dudley Giles in endzone for touchback. Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:4545% → 65%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
54.9%
Marquis Young run for 22 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
51.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 3 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+35
51.8%
Marquis Young run for 35 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
48.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 6 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
35.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
40.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0859% → 62%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.0%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+24
40.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 24 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
38.1%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+5
37.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
37.6%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
36.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
37.2%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
37.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:4538% → 39%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
38.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+10
38.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
37.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+24
37.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 24 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
38.8%
Johnson, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the UMASS24, PENALTY BUFFALO holding (Blodgett, Robert) 10 yards to the UMASS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+11
37.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 11 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
37.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
35.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
37.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
36.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
34.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+23
39.1%
Adam Mitcheson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1765% → 64%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.1%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
35.4%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
34.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jamal WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
35.8%
Logan Laurent punt for 42 yds, downed at the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:4434% → 60%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
33.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-3
35.1%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+9
31.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 9 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
34.4%
Johnson, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the BUFFALO45, PENALTY UMASS offside 5 yards to the BUFFALO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+3
35.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-3
35.4%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
33.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 10 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
34.9%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+9
32.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
34.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+30
31.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 30 yds to the UMass 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4856% → 56%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
44.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 9 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
41.9%
Jamal Wilson run for no gain to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
42.0%
Jamal Wilson run for no gain to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Logan Laurent punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5051% → 46%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
50.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-5
50.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+5
50.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
47.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
46.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4060% → 55%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
39.6%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 11
50
0
40.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 11
50
0
41.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 11
50
0
45.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2050% → 45%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
49.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
50.4%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-11
49.8%
Johnson, Jordan rush for 4 yards to the BUFFALO26, PENALTY BUFFALO personal foul 11 yards to the BUFFALO11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 22
OWN 11
0
49.5%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 22
OWN 11
+14
47.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 14 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
44.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, downed at the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 28FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 4:3960% → 88%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
39.7%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+2
40.7%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+13
41.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 13 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
31.0%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
26.1%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
23.6%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.0%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+18
22.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 18 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
19.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
17.0%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
18.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
12.5%
Logan Laurent 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2619% → 16%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
16.0%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Da'Sean Downey return for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:3393% → 97%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-2
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-2
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:34
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+28.3
TD · Q2 0:19
Blake Frohnapfel run for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q2 3:13
Marquis Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com