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BUF

Buffalo 21 at Akron 42

AKR
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:51 · Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 9 yds to the Akron 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense+8.5Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:22: Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +5.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:51: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +6.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:26: Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +9.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:41: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 28 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +12.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:42: Donnell Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +10.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02BUF 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:36AKR 4th & 1 at BUF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:56BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:30AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:38BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:45AKR 4th & 18 at BUF 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:59BUF 4th & 24 at BUF 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:51BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:36AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:43AKR 4th & 2 at BUF 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:13BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:47BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:42AKR 4th & 4 at BUF 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:34AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:04AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:22BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:51AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:26BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:41AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:42AKR Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:38AKR Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:24BUF Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
51.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
51.6%
Conor Hundley run for 5 yds to the Akron 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
51.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 17
+3
51.6%
Zach Paul punt for 36 yds , Collin Lisa returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
50
0
51.6%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
50
0
51.6%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 10
50
0
51.6%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 10
50
0
51.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0252% → 55%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
51.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
50
0
51.9%
Conor Hundley run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
50
0
51.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 10
50
+9
51.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 9 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
51.9%
Cody Grice run for 4 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
52.0%
Conor Hundley run for 8 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
54.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 29 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
53.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
53.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+9
53.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
53.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 36 Jordan Johnson fumbled, forced by Rodney Coe, recovered by Akron DeAndre ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
57.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 36 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
56.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
57.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
59.1%
Donnell Alexander run for 3 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
59.1%
Thomas Woodson run for 9 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
59.4%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 36Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
59.1%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
58.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani Davis, broken up by Brandon BerrySimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
58.5%
Zach Paul punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
59.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
60.0%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
60.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Kris GivensSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+8
60.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 52 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 8 yds to the Akron 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
62.1%
Conor Hundley run for 13 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
62.6%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
62.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+1
62.3%
Conor Hundley run for 1 yd to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
62.6%
WOODSON, T. pass complete to PRATT, Andrew for 19 yards to the UB22 (WILLIAMSON, Rya), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+2
62.3%
Conor Hundley run for 2 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 18
OPP 49
0
62.3%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 18
OPP 49
0
61.9%
Thomas Woodson run for no gain to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
61.4%
Zach Paul punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 3:4037% → 44%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
63.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Bryce CheekSimilar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
63.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 13 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
63.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
63.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+11
63.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
63.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 13 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
62.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+5
62.3%
TAYLOR, Anthone rush for 4 yards to the AKRON23 (BROWN, Jatavis;EVANS, Dylan), PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the AKRON22, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
62.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
62.3%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Akron 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+10
62.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 10 yds to the Akron 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
62.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Akron 5Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
60.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 10 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
61.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
60.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Richie Cooper for 1 yd to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
60.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
58.9%
Zach Paul punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
60.0%
JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the UB21 (BROWN, Jatavis), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the UB10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
60.1%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-3
60.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 23
OWN 7
-1
61.2%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 24
OWN 6
0
61.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 30 yds, downed at the Buff 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:1564% → 72%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
63.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+21
63.4%
Donnell Alexander run for 21 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
63.7%
Donnell Alexander run for 4 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
63.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by Ryan WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
71.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
70.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
70.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 6 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
69.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
70.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Brandon Smiley for 1 yd to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
70.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Jordan GeorgeSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+9
71.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 35 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 9 yds to the Akron 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani DavisSimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
71.8%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-4
71.2%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
70.3%
Zach Paul punt for 48 yds, downed at the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 2:4927% → 40%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
73.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+6
71.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 6 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
72.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
73.1%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 15 yards to the AKRON46, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
71.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+17
70.8%
Anthone Taylor run for 17 yds to the Akron 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
69.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+16
69.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 16 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:4065% → 80%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
65.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 13 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
66.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 23 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
67.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 7 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+3
67.6%
Donnell Alexander run for 3 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
80.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 28 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
76.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+21
77.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 21 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.6%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Kris Givens return for no gain to the Akron 42 BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
79.5%
ALEXANDER, D. rush for 13 yards to the AKRON46 (GILBO, Nick), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+15
79.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 15 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+6
79.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 6 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
80.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+1
80.5%
Donnell Alexander run for 1 yd to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
79.5%
Donnell Alexander run for no gain to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
78.7%
Zach Paul punt for 33 yds , Brandon Stanback returns for no gain to the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
81.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+1
81.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
81.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+2
81.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds , A.J. Coney returns for 2 yds to the Akron 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0185% → 96%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
84.6%
Thomas Woodson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+19
84.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 19 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
84.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 7 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
84.7%
Thomas Woodson run for 5 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
84.7%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to PRATT, Andrew (BAKER, Marqus), PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the UB15, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
84.7%
Thomas Woodson run for 8 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
95.5%
Donnell Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:216% → 6%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
94.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
94.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 1
50
+9
94.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 9 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
94.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+7
94.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 7 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.3%
Joe Licata pass intercepted, touchback. Bryce Cheek return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 4:1496% → 99%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.5%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 18Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
95.3%
Donnell Alexander run for 9 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
95.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
95.6%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 28 Donnell Alexander fumbled, recovered by Akron Donnell AlexanderSimilar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+15
95.4%
Thomas Woodson run for 15 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.9%
Donnell Alexander run for no gain to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.7%
Thomas Woodson run for 2 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin Wolf, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
98.6%
Zach Paul punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+4
97.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+16
97.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt Weiser, broken up by Bryce CheekSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
97.5%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 32 Team fumbled, recovered by Buff Jordan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+4
97.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
97.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:3999% → 100%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.2%
Donnell Alexander run for 8 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
99.2%
Donnell Alexander run for 4 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.2%
Donnell Alexander run for 4 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+29
99.2%
Donnell Alexander run for 29 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.2%
Donnell Alexander run for 2 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
99.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Donnell Alexander run for 35 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:130% → 2%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
99.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
50
+25
99.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 25 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
99.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 20 yds to the Akron 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.8%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron (GIVENS, Kris), PENALTY AKRON pass interference 3 yards to the AKRON2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.5%
Donnell Alexander run for no gain to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
99.5%
Donnell Alexander run for 8 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-2
99.5%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+2
99.7%
Donnell Alexander run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 5 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
99.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+10
99.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 10 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
99.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 12 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
99.1%
LICATA, Joe pass complete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron for 11 yards to the AKRON21 (TURNER, James), PENALTY UB personal foul 15 yards to the AKRON47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 25
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Brandon SmileySimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 25
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Brandon SmileySimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 25
OPP 47
-6
99.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 9 yds to the Buff 38 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 40
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Donnell Alexander run for 5 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
99.8%
Donnell Alexander run for 8 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
99.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+6
99.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+4
99.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:41
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 28 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q3 5:42
Donnell Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q2 2:26
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com