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WMU

Western Michigan 19 at Northern Illinois 27

NIU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2015 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-25.3NIU 35.4%Corey Davis 72 Yd pass from ZachTerrell (Two-Point Run ConversionFailed)AWAY 19 - HOME 14 · Q3 1:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:57 · Corey Davis 72 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−9.7Pregame prior+1.4Garbage-time factor−4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score differential−3.9Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Jordan Huff run for 87 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +7.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:56: Daniel Braverman 35 Yd TD pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick) — WMU win probability +10.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 1:57: Corey Davis 72 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — WMU win probability +25.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:14: Joel Bouagnon run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion Failed) — NIU win probability +23.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:15: Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 53 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +22.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:21NIU 4th & 11 at WMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26WMU 4th & 4 at NIU 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:50NIU 4th & 5 at WMU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:37WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24WMU 4th & 5 at NIU 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:01NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:12WMU 4th & 11 at NIU 28, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:23NIU 4th & 3 at WMU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:33WMU 4th & 8 at NIU 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:08NIU 4th & 11 at WMU 39, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:43NIU 4th & 8 at WMU 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:08WMU 4th & 28 at WMU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−7.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:41WMU 4th & 4 at NIU 4, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−4.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−11.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:13NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 10, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12WMU 4th & 10 at NIU 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−1.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:46NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:11NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:56WMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:57WMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:14NIU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:15NIU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 2:3455% → 55%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Marcus Jones run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-10
55.0%
Bouagnon, Joel rush for 9 yards to the NORTHERNIL42, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Myers, Levon) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
55.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 19 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
55.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
55.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 2
50
+4
55.3%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
55.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
55.5%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
55.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
55.2%
Ryan Graham punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:4945% → 46%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
55.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 15 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
55.1%
Zach Terrell run for 5 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
54.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
54.9%
Tom Flacco run for 9 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
54.8%
Zach Terrell run for 1 yd to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+23
54.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 23 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
54.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
54.4%
Tom Flacco run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
54.5%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
54.5%
Andrew Haldeman 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:3255% → 58%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Joel BouagnonSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.6%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
54.5%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
54.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
55.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Chad Beebe for 8 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
55.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+15
55.2%
Graham, Ryan pass incomplete to Golladay, Kenny, PENALTY WESTMICH pass interference (Zamort, Ronald) 15 yards to the WESTMICH37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL.Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
55.5%
Ryan Graham run for 5 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
55.9%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
55.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+7
54.8%
Ryan Graham run for 7 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.0%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
56.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+27
58.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 27 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
15 plays · 47 yds · 5:0842% → 42%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
57.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
57.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+7
58.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 7 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
57.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 6 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
56.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+2
57.4%
Tom Flacco run for 2 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+5
58.8%
Tom Flacco run for 5 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
57.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 16 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
57.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
57.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
57.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
58.4%
J. Schroeder punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
65.4%
Jordan Huff run for 87 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:1135% → 42%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
65.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 2 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
66.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 12 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
65.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-4
66.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+19
67.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 19 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
66.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
66.6%
Zach Terrell run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
66.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
66.6%
Bellamy, LeVante rush for 13 yards to the NORTHERNIL20, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Moton, Taylor) 10 yards to the NORTHERNIL43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+8
68.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 8 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+35
57.7%
Daniel Braverman 35 Yd TD pass from Zach Terrell (Andrew Haldeman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4461% → 62%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
61.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
61.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 7 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
63.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
63.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+1
62.5%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
61.6%
Ryan Graham punt for 37 yds, downed at the WMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:3939% → 35%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
61.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 5 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
61.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+12
61.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
60.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 23 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
58.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
59.5%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+13
59.4%
Zach Terrell run for 13 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
57.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
57.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-5
58.5%
Zach Terrell sacked by Boomer Mays and Perez Ford for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 11
OPP 28
-7
65.1%
Zach Terrell sacked by Ben Compton for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
63.8%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted by Darius Phillips, returned 2 yds to the WMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
65.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5538% → 39%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
61.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-14
62.6%
Terrell, Zach pass complete to Davis, Corey for 9 yards to the WESTMICH37, PENALTY WESTMICH pass interference (Roberts, Kendrick) 14 yards to the WESTMICH14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+21
63.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 21 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.6%
Zach Terrell run for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
61.3%
Zach Terrell pass intercepted by Albert Smalls, returned for no gain to the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2866% → 67%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
65.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
65.6%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
68.1%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+2
66.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the WMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:4537% → 41%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
63.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
50
+7
60.4%
Tom Flacco run for 7 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
60.1%
Tom Flacco run for 4 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
60.6%
Zach Terrell run for 6 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
58.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
60.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
59.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
59.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
60.7%
Tom Flacco run for 5 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
59.2%
Tom Flacco run for 2 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
58.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
60.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
59.0%
Andrew Haldeman 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:2262% → 61%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
61.6%
Aregeros Turner run for 6 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+15
63.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
65.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
63.2%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+13
61.5%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
66.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the WMich 35 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Desroy Maxwell) to the WMich 45Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 17
OPP 45
0
64.1%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 17
OPP 45
0
63.7%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+6
62.2%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
60.7%
Ryan Graham punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
35.4%
Corey Davis 72 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 3:3639% → 68%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
38.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+1
39.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+8
37.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 8 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
39.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-2
39.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
36.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
38.7%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+17
40.2%
Aregeros Turner run for 17 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
42.9%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+32
43.1%
Jordan Huff run for 20 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Asantay Brown) to the WMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
44.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the WMich 12Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
68.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17MISSED FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1768% → 63%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
68.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-10
68.3%
Graham, Ryan rush for 5 yards to the WESTMICH25, PENALTY NORTHERNIL holding (Ruka, Josh) 10 yards to the WESTMICH40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+12
64.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 12 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
66.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Juwan BrescacinSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
63.4%
Christian Hagan 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nathan BrasterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3240% → 36%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
60.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
58.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+16
59.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 16 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
56.4%
Zach Terrell sacked by Cameron Clinton-Earl for a loss of 8 yards to the NORTHERNIL 44 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Zach Terrell) to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 18
OWN 44
0
59.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 18
OWN 44
-10
60.6%
Terrell, Zach rush for 12 yards to the NORTHERNIL44, PENALTY WESTMICH holding 10 yards to the WESTMICH34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 28
OWN 34
0
63.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 28
OWN 34
0
64.2%
J. Schroeder punt for 63 yds, downed at the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 97 yds · 0:4462% → 89%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+44
61.8%
Jordan Huff run for 44 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
67.0%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+53
89.1%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 53 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:2115% → 12%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
85.1%
Bellamy, LeVante rush for no gain to the WESTMICH35, PENALTY WESTMICH holding 10 yards to the WESTMICH25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+23
86.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 23 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
83.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+15
84.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 15 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
84.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
83.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+7
85.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 7 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
83.6%
Corey Davis pass complete to Zach Terrell for 22 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
84.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1995% → 95%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
94.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 11
-1
95.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 10Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 10
0
95.7%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the NoIll 10Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
94.6%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoIll 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:467% → 6%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
92.9%
Zach Terrell sacked by Ben Compton for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 17
OWN 49
-10
94.5%
Terrell, Zach pass incomplete, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Okorafor, Chukwuma) 10 yards to the WESTMICH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 27
OWN 39
0
94.7%
Tom Flacco pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 27
OWN 39
+17
95.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 17 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
94.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5597% → 97%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:57
Corey Davis 72 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-25.3
TD · Q4 13:14
Joel Bouagnon run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion Failed)
+23.4
TD · Q4 8:15
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 53 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com