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TOL

Toledo 44 at Bowling Green 28

BGSU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2015 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:10 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:34: Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:25: Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:10: Phillip Ely run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +16.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:03: Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:38: Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +11.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:52BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 2, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−5.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:14TOL 4th & 5 at BGSU 5, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−7.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:33TOL 4th & 7 at BGSU 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−8.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:27BGSU 4th & 22 at BGSU 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:04TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:40BGSU 4th & 2 at TOL 49, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.2%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:12TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 14, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−4.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:15BGSU 4th & 21 at BGSU 41, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:35TOL 4th & 2 at BGSU 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.3%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:45BGSU 4th & 9 at TOL 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:54TOL 4th & 10 at BGSU 34, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:55TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:02TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:20BGSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:58TOL Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:34BGSU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:25BGSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:10TOL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:03BGSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:38TOL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
73.5%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Cheatham Norrils return for no gain to the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:3727% → 28%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
73.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+15
73.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
73.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
72.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4372% → 71%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
72.4%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
72.2%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
71.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Derek Lee for 4 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
71.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds, downed at the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:4129% → 31%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+41
71.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 41 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
70.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
69.2%
Terry Swanson 23 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0669% → 68%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.9%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.1%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:1033% → 40%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
67.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
66.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
66.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
65.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
64.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
64.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
63.9%
Terry Swanson run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
63.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
62.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
62.3%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
59.7%
Jameson Vest 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FUMBLE
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:5559% → 58%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
59.3%
Travis Greene run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
59.2%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+11
59.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
59.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 10 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
59.4%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-10
58.6%
Matt Johnson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 41 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Alex Huettel) to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 21
OWN 44
+10
57.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Fred Coppet for 10 yds Fred Coppet fumbled, recovered by Toled Trent VossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:1546% → 52%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
54.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+47
53.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 47 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
53.2%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.1%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
53.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
48.0%
Jameson Vest 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:4851% → 60%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
51.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 10 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
52.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
52.2%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
52.0%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
51.7%
Johnson, Matt pass incomplete to Dieter, Gehrig, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Mathis, Trevon) 15 yards to the TOLEDO29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
51.9%
Travis Greene run for 10 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
51.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 6 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
51.3%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+5
50.3%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.5%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3944% → 55%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
56.1%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
55.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+16
56.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
50
-2
54.3%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+5
53.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+26
53.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 26 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
52.6%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
52.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
51.5%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
44.7%
Jameson Vest 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:5650% → 46%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
49.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 12 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
50.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Gehrig Dieter) to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-3
48.5%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 18
OWN 28
0
47.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Chris GallonSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-4
47.0%
Matt Johnson sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+21
45.7%
Joseph Davidson punt for 51 yds for a 1ST down , Corey Jones returns for 21 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (Joseph Davidson) to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:2261% → 70%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
39.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
38.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
30.0%
Kareem Hunt 11 Yd Run (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 3:5635% → 43%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
35.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Fred Coppet for 4 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
34.4%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
34.1%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
33.7%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
33.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Fred Coppet for 9 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
34.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 9 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-10
34.6%
Johnson, Matt rush for no gain to the TOLEDO44, PENALTY BOWLGREEN holding (Bennett, Jacob) 10 yards to the BOWLGREEN46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+27
33.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the BOWLGREEN 42 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
35.2%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+5
34.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 5 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+14
32.9%
Matt Johnson run for 9 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1068% → 67%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
32.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0466% → 67%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
33.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
33.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
33.0%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Austin Valdez return for 7 yds to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1039% → 52%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
39.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 17 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
38.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 6 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
38.3%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
37.0%
Johnson, Matt pass incomplete to Moore, Ronnie, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 3 yards to the TOLEDO3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOWLGREEN.Similar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
51.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1754% → 52%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kareem HuntSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
47.1%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
47.9%
Matt Johnson sacked by Allen Covington for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 8 Matt Johnson fumbled, forced by Allen Covington, recovered by Toled Orion Jones , return for 22 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:2558% → 75%
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
42.3%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
25.5%
Phillip Ely run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:4933% → 46%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
33.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 8 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
33.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
33.1%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+3
31.5%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
32.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 4 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
31.8%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 4 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+16
31.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 16 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
32.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+11
31.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (11 Yards) to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
46.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3359% → 59%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
40.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
39.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-9
40.4%
Phillip Ely sacked by Taylor Royster for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 15
OWN 14
0
41.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 34 yds, downed at the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4143% → 35%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
42.9%
Matt Johnson sacked by Orion Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-15
40.2%
Johnson, Matt rush for loss of 48 yards to the BOWLGREEN0, PENALTY BOWLGREEN personal foul 15 yards to the BOWLGREEN33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 29
OWN 33
+8
37.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 8 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 21
OWN 41
0
36.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
35.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 37 yds, downed at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:3064% → 70%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
36.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
34.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
34.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
33.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
30.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
28.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
27.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
27.5%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 14:35
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+1
30.3%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:3834% → 32%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
33.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Robbie RhodesSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
33.2%
Johnson, Matt pass incomplete to Dieter, Gehrig, PENALTY TOLEDO substitution infraction 5 yards to the TOLEDO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
35.0%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
32.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 14 yds Gehrig Dieter fumbled, recovered by Toled , return for 23 yds to the Toled 19 TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 5:0772% → 95%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
28.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+13
26.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 13 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
26.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 12 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
24.9%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
24.4%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
22.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 15 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
19.2%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+2
17.4%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
5.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26DOWNS
13 plays · 36 yds · 2:478% → 6%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
8.3%
Travis Greene run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
8.5%
Travis Greene run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
9.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
8.7%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+11
7.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 11 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
8.2%
Johnson, Matt rush for 3 yards to the TOLEDO37, PENALTY BOWLGREEN holding (Hunter, Ryan) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 20
50
0
6.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 20
50
0
6.5%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 20
50
+11
6.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 11 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1698% → 98%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
2.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
2.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+19
1.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Calvin Bransford for 19 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.6%
Phillip Ely run for no gain to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
1.4%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
1.5%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
1.6%
Jameson Vest 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28INT
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:543% → 3%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
2.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+30
2.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 30 yds Travis Greene fumbled, recovered by BwGrnSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
3.3%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+12
3.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
2.8%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Cheatham Norrils return for 15 yds to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 22
-6
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 20
OWN 16
-5
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:10
Phillip Ely run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q3 8:03
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 12:25
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com