Try the model
BALL

Ball State 31 at Ohio 48

OHIO
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2015 · Peden Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:45 · Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense+9.3Pregame prior+15.0Score differential+3.6Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Time remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 60 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +6.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:08: JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 7 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:44: Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 20 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +11.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:48: A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:12: Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 33 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +9.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:02OHIO 4th & 11 at OHIO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:09BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:19BALL 4th & 6 at OHIO 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:00OHIO 4th & 1 at BALL 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:32BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.6
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:31OHIO 4th & 13 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:45BALL 4th & 4 at OHIO 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:31OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 35, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:48BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:50OHIO 4th & 9 at BALL 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:40OHIO 4th & 8 at BALL 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50BALL 4th & 2 at OHIO 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:09BALL 4th & 8 at OHIO 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00OHIO 4th & 1 at BALL 6, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:21OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:10OHIO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:51OHIO Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:08OHIO Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:49BALL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:44BALL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:48OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:12BALL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:49OHIO Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:38BALL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4973% → 73%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.0%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Daz'mond PattersonSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
72.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
72.8%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Kawmae SawyerSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-5
72.8%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
72.8%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5327% → 27%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
72.8%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.7%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
72.7%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
72.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
72.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
72.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:1473% → 74%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
72.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
72.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
72.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 6 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
72.6%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 39 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
74.0%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3527% → 28%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
73.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-5
72.8%
BALL ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+8
73.1%
Darian Green run for 8 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
72.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
73.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
72.4%
Morgan Hagee 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4073% → 76%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
72.5%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 24 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
72.9%
JD Sprague run for 4 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
73.0%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+9
72.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 9 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
73.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
73.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+15
72.9%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.2%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Keith HeitzmanSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
73.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 9 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
72.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the BalSt 6Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
72.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
73.2%
OHIO Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
72.8%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 13 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:3525% → 25%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
75.3%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
75.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+51
74.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 36 yds KeVonn Mabon fumbled, recovered by Ohio Brett Layton OHIO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:0976% → 83%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
75.5%
Dorian Brown run for 11 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
75.6%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+10
75.9%
JD Sprague run for 10 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
82.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 60 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4818% → 18%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
82.0%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
82.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
82.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
82.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4983% → 84%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
83.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
83.6%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 10 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
84.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
84.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-10
84.2%
JD Sprague run for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line JD Sprague fumbled, recovered by Ohio JD Sprague , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 13
50
0
83.7%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 41 yds, downed at the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3016% → 16%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+41
84.5%
Riley Neal run for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+13
83.2%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
83.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
82.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
83.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
83.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:1786% → 92%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
85.6%
JD Sprague run for 11 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
85.3%
JD Sprague run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 41Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+10
85.5%
Maleek Irons run for 10 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
85.4%
Maleek Irons run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
86.1%
Maleek Irons run for 14 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.3%
Maleek Irons run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
86.5%
Maleek Irons run for 6 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
86.2%
JD Sprague run for 5 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
86.7%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.7%
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 7 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:4913% → 16%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
86.8%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
86.3%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
86.4%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
50
+36
86.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 36 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
85.0%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the Ohio 13Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+12
85.5%
Darian Green run for 12 yds to the Ohio 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 1:0588% → 88%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
87.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
88.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 6 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
88.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
88.7%
JD Sprague run for 2 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
88.7%
JD Sprague run for 6 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
88.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 35Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+12
88.4%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 38 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 12 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:238% → 8%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
92.3%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
92.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
92.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 55 yds, downed at the Ohio 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
89.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Ohio 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0212% → 11%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
88.2%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+2
88.5%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
88.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+40
88.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 40 yds , Langston Provitt returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3591% → 95%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
91.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
91.8%
JD Sprague run for 14 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
92.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+12
92.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 12 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
92.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
92.7%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Kawmae SawyerSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
95.2%
Josiah Yazdani 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:526% → 16%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
94.4%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 47 James Gilbert fumbled, recovered by BalSt Riley NealSimilar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+14
94.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 14 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
94.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
94.6%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 41Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+6
95.0%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
95.2%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Ohio 35Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+15
95.3%
OHIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
84.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 20 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:3489% → 97%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
89.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to Brendan Cope for 9 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
89.9%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
89.5%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
90.1%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Ohio 40Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+42
90.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 42 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
90.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 15 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:183% → 13%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
96.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
50
0
96.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
50
+17
96.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 17 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
86.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 33 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:0593% → 94%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+39
92.5%
JD Sprague pass complete to Brendan Cope for 39 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.0%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
93.1%
JD Sprague run for 2 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
93.0%
JD Sprague pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
94.1%
Josiah Yazdani 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 4:186% → 5%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+22
93.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 22 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.9%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
94.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 8 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
94.0%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
94.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
94.3%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Ohio 42Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
94.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
94.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
94.4%
Riley Neal sacked by Kurt Laseak for 0 yards to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
95.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
95.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 3:0696% → 99%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
96.2%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 2 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+34
96.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 34 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
96.6%
JD Sprague pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 22 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.7%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
96.8%
JD Sprague run for 3 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.1%
JD Sprague pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 7 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 1:521% → 4%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
98.9%
Riley Neal run for 14 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.0%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
99.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 5 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+24
99.1%
Darian Green run for 24 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.1%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the Ohio 10Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
96.0%
Darian Green run for 10 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0897% → 99%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.4%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
97.5%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
97.6%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
97.8%
Dorian Brown run for 8 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+43
98.1%
Dorian Brown run for 43 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
98.3%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-1
98.6%
Greg Windham run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+8
98.6%
Greg Windham run for 8 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+1
98.7%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:44
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 20 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-11.3
TD · Q3 3:12
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 33 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 14:51
JD Sprague pass complete to Jordan Reid for 60 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com