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MASS

Massachusetts 28 at Eastern Michigan 17

EMU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Logan Laurent punt for 30 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−21.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:13: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 39 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +5.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:45: Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 7:42: Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +11.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:03: Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +10.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:58: Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +4.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:34EMU 4th & 10 at MASS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:28MASS 4th & 1 at EMU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:02EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:08MASS 4th & 13 at EMU 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:08EMU 4th & 19 at EMU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:13EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:39MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:50EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:23EMU 4th & 10 at MASS 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:03MASS 4th & 1 at EMU 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:15EMU 4th & 23 at MASS 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:15MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:40EMU 4th & 1 at MASS 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:18MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:13MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:45EMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:42MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:03MASS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:58EMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
28.9%
Tajae Sharpe run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
28.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
28.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2129% → 31%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
29.4%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the EMich 41Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
29.4%
Darius Jackson run for 15 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
29.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 10 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
29.5%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-1
29.5%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
29.4%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
30.7%
Dylan Mulder 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:1069% → 70%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+47
30.8%
Jamal Wilson run for 47 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
30.4%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
30.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+6
30.5%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
30.4%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the EMich 17Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
30.4%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
30.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 3 yds to the EMich 11Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
30.7%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the EMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
30.4%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 7 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.3%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:1031% → 31%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.1%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-4
31.1%
Shaq Vann pass complete to Reginald Bell for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 19Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
30.8%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 14
OWN 19
+14
30.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 47 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 14 yds to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:0269% → 67%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
30.9%
Jackson Porter run for 9 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
30.7%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
30.8%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+5
30.7%
Frohnapfel, Blake pass incomplete to Mills, Rodney (BROWN, Anthony), QB hurry by BROWN, Mike, PENALTY EMU offside (MACLEAN, Luke) 5 yards to the EMU31, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
30.6%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+10
30.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the EMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
30.5%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the EMich 17Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
30.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 9
OPP 17
-4
31.0%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Kyle Rachwal for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 21Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
32.9%
Logan Laurent 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
32.5%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the EMich 21Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
32.4%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-9
31.9%
Brogan Roback sacked by Sha-Ki Holines for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 12Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 19
OWN 12
+1
31.7%
Austin Barnes punt for 45 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 1 yd to the UMass 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:3468% → 73%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
32.1%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
32.1%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+10
32.2%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
27.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 39 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.1%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
27.5%
Brogan Roback run for 7 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
27.8%
Austin Barnes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9INT
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
26.9%
Elgin Long run for 43 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
26.1%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 36Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+7
26.3%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
26.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted, touchback. Devon Russell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1727% → 37%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
27.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 12 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
27.7%
Darius Jackson run for 13 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
28.3%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+17
28.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 17 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
29.5%
Darius Jackson run for 7 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+5
29.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Austin Stone for 5 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
29.5%
JACKSON, Darius rush for loss of 2 yards to the UMASS25 (Messiah, Kassan), PENALTY UMASS personal foul 11 yards to the UMASS12, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
29.5%
Brogan Roback run for 3 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
29.5%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Cody Tuttle) to the UMass 14Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+4
29.5%
Darius Jackson run for 4 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
36.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
33.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
34.0%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+11
34.3%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 11 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
32.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
32.8%
Jamal Wilson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 1
50
-15
32.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+10
34.9%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+10
34.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 50 yds , Blake Banham returns for 10 yds to the EASTMICH 45 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, IB (7 Yards) to the EMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12FUMBLE
15 plays · 70 yds · 3:1134% → 37%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
34.4%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 6Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+11
34.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 11 yds to the EMich 17Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+5
33.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive offside (Jovan Santos-Knox) to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
34.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for 5 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
35.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Shaq VannSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+12
34.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 12 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
35.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 8 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
37.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 4 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
38.1%
Darius Jackson run for 2 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
38.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for 5 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
37.6%
Brogan Roback run for 4 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
38.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Darius JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
37.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+14
36.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for 14 yds Sam Browning fumbled, forced by Jordin Hamilton, recovered by UMass Jesse MonteiroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2167% → 69%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
33.0%
Marquis Young run for 12 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
32.6%
Marquis Young run for 15 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
30.6%
Ross Comis sacked by Great Ibe for a loss of 9 yards to the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1036% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.6%
Darius Jackson run for 5 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
36.1%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
34.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie Daugherty, broken up by Zeke EdmondsSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
33.4%
Austin Barnes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:5167% → 82%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.3%
Jamal Wilson run for no gain to the UMass 24Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
33.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Sharif Custis for 14 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
31.8%
Jamal Wilson run for no gain to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
33.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 13 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Elgin LongSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
30.9%
Marquis Young run for 10 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
30.7%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+16
29.4%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding (Kwanii Figueroa) to the EMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
29.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the EMich 11Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
29.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the EMich 10Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+7
30.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 7 yds to the EMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
29.5%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.1%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:1121% → 19%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
21.4%
Darius Jackson run for 9 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
22.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 7 yds to the UMass 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
22.8%
Darius Jackson run for 2 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
22.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive offside (Sha-Ki Holines) to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+13
22.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for 13 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
23.9%
Brogan Roback run for 3 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-3
23.9%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
22.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
19.2%
Dylan Mulder 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 6:2081% → 96%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Anthony BrownSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
19.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for no gain to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+11
20.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
18.5%
Marquis Young run for 30 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
17.0%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the EMich 32Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
17.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 5 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
17.1%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
16.8%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+12
16.8%
Marquis Young run for 12 yds to the EMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
14.4%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the EMich 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.4%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.7%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 2:416% → 5%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
6.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 21 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
6.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 10 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
6.9%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
6.9%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to TUTTLE, Cody (Monteiro, Jesse), PENALTY UMASS substitution infraction 5 yards to the UMASS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
7.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 10 yds to the UMass 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
7.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-15
7.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jake Hurcombe) to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 25
OPP 34
+9
6.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 9 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 16
OPP 25
-7
6.5%
Brogan Roback sacked by Kassan Messiah for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 23
OPP 32
+49
4.6%
Dylan Mulder 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
3.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 9 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
3.2%
Jamal Wilson run for 4 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
3.1%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
3.2%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 48Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-4
3.2%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 44Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
3.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 49 yds, downed at the EMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 93 yds · 3:424% → 9%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
3.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+15
3.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin Creel, broken up by Zeke Edmonds for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, UN (Zeke Edmonds) to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
3.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 5 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
3.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 7 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+16
3.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 16 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
3.8%
Brogan Roback run for 1 yd to the EMich 35Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
4.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sam Browning for 14 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
4.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 9 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
4.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sam BrowningSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
4.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sam BrowningSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
4.6%
Darius Jackson run for 2 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
4.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 8 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+12
4.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kris Strange for 12 yds to the UMass 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.8%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21END OF GAME
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:5095% → 96%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
4.9%
Marquis Young run for 5 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
4.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+20
4.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 20 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
3.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 4 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
3.9%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, OF (5 Yards) to the EMich 8Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-2
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-2
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:42
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q4 13:03
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 6:45
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com