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TOL

Toledo 28 at Central Michigan 23

CMU
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2015 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:27: Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +5.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:46: Derek Edwards 0 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick) — CMU win probability +9.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:24: Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +19.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 7:01: Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +14.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:26: Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CMU win probability +23.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:52CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:26TOL 4th & 7 at CMU 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:27CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 15, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:30CMU 4th & 10 at TOL 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:19TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−1.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:57TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:02CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:37CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:05TOL 4th & 11 at CMU 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:43TOL 4th & 4 at CMU 4, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−13.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:04TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−4.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:31CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−3.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:28TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:48TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:27TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:46CMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:24CMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:01TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:26CMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.4%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:2668% → 68%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
31.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 8 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
31.9%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
32.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
32.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 13 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
32.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
32.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 16 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
32.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 11 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
32.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+1
32.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
32.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
32.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 2Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3632% → 32%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
32.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 18 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
32.6%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-1
32.9%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
50
-7
32.6%
Cooper Rush sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
32.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 39 yds, downed at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:2668% → 68%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+28
32.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 28 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
31.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 14 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
31.4%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+2
31.4%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
31.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
32.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5933% → 32%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
32.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 7 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+1
32.7%
Cooper Rush run for 1 yd to the CMich 14Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
32.4%
Jay Roberson run for 1 yd to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+3
32.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 49 yds , Corey Jones returns for 3 yds to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:3968% → 73%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
31.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
32.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
50
+7
31.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
31.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+41
27.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 41 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:2129% → 28%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
28.5%
Rush, Cooper pass complete to Chapman, Mark for 7 yards to the CENTMICH33, PENALTY CENTMICH illegal block (Walker, Martez) 13 yards to the CENTMICH13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 23
OWN 13
+4
28.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 4 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+6
27.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 6 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+4
27.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 4 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+25
27.7%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 40 yds, downed at the CENTMICH 33 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mike Zenk) to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:4074% → 80%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
26.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 16 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
25.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
20.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:5720% → 23%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
20.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 8 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+7
20.2%
Cooper Rush run for 7 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
19.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jay Roberson for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
19.7%
Jay Roberson run for 6 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
20.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 9 yds to the CENTMICH 46 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
19.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 26 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
19.8%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
19.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Martez WalkerSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
19.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
23.2%
Brian Eavey 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1181% → 81%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
18.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 44 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Perschon) to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 13
OWN 34
-3
18.6%
Phillip Ely run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 31 Phillip Ely fumbled, recovered by Toled Phillip ElySimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
18.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+10
19.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
19.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:3322% → 30%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
22.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for no gain to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
21.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 2
50
+4
21.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
21.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 6 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
22.0%
Cooper Rush run for no gain to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
21.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+37
20.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 37 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
30.3%
Derek Edwards 0 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:4973% → 75%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
27.3%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
26.5%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
26.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+18
26.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
26.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
26.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+9
25.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
25.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:5527% → 26%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
27.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 1 yd to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
26.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+10
25.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 10 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
27.2%
Cooper Rush run for 5 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
26.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
26.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0275% → 76%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
24.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
24.8%
Marc Remy run for 9 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
23.9%
Marc Remy run for 8 yds to the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2326% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
25.5%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
24.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+4
24.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+36
23.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 36 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3275% → 76%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
24.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 15 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
23.6%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+7
23.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 7 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
23.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 8 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
22.8%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
22.7%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
23.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
24.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:4124% → 44%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
23.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 11 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+17
22.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 17 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
23.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
24.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
50
+27
24.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 27 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
44.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:4163% → 68%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.8%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
37.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 14 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
34.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Paul Perschon) to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+4
35.3%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
33.5%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+51
32.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 51 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
29.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
29.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the CMich 4Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
32.2%
Jameson Vest 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:0235% → 31%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
35.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
35.8%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+19
33.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 19 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
38.3%
Rush, Cooper pass incomplete to Rice, Anthony, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (Voss, Trent) 15 yards to the TOLEDO38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTMICH.Similar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
39.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
40.9%
Martez Walker pass incomplete to Cooper RushSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+33
36.9%
Cooper Rush run for 33 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
39.3%
Rush, Cooper pass incomplete to McCord, Ben, PENALTY CENTMICH pass interference (McCord, Ben) 15 yards to the TOLEDO17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
-16
38.9%
Cooper Rush sacked by Ja'Wuan Woodley for a loss of 16 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 33
0
36.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 33
0
34.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Joe BacciSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 33
+51
30.6%
Brian Eavey 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3771% → 68%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
29.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
27.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
27.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-5
30.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
32.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:2933% → 35%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Emmett ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
32.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
31.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 10 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
35.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+8
34.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 1
50
+3
36.7%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
37.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
37.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+3
37.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
34.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:3075% → 94%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
24.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 15 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
23.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
22.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
22.5%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
21.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+10
22.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 10 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
20.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
19.5%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+11
20.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 11 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:3511% → 31%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
10.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
10.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+16
9.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 16 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
9.4%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+12
7.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 12 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
8.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 9 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+20
7.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 20 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
9.3%
Rush, Cooper pass incomplete to Rice, Anthony, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Norrils, Cheatham) 15 yards to the TOLEDO5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTMICH.Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
7.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:0587% → 96%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
12.6%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
11.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 17 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
9.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 0
OPP 20
+2
8.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 0
OPP 18
-3
5.5%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 0
OPP 21
+10
3.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 0
OPP 11
-5
3.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
3.7%
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:129% → 9%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
9.3%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Cheatham Norrils return for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:26
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+23.2
TD · Q3 8:24
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q4 7:01
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com