2015 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2015 · Gillette Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Logan Laurent 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:20: Logan Laurent 40 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +5.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:54: Thomas Woodson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +16.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:43: Robert Stein 36 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +16.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:55: Thomas Woodson run for 4 yds to the Akron 39 — AKR win probability +12.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 23 — AKR win probability +22.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 12AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it44.5%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%average punt
- Q1 12:29MASS 4th & 3 at AKR 47, tiedClose callPunted · 55.9% before the snapGo for it56.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:36AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it43.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%average punt
- Q1 3:15MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.5%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 4 at MASS 47, tiedClose callPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it45.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:15MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.0%average punt
- Q2 11:18AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snapGo for it42.0%−1.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.5%average punt
- Q2 7:05MASS 4th & 7 at AKR 43, tiedClose callPunted · 57.4% before the snapGo for it57.6%37% to convertField goal56.7%−1.028% to makePuntTheir call57.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:50MASS 4th & 8 at AKR 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snapGo for it57.2%−0.632% to convertField goalTheir call57.8%77% to makePunt52.9%−4.8average punt
- Q2 0:20MASS 4th & 4 at AKR 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snapGo for it60.2%−1.347% to convertField goalTheir call61.5%70% to makePunt56.9%−4.6average punt
- Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 23, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snapGo for it63.8%−3.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%average punt
- Q3 8:54MASS 4th & 10 at AKR 35, down 1Close callWent for it · 52.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.1%−0.330% to convertField goal52.4%45% to makePunt51.2%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:20AKR 4th & 1 at MASS 48, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.8%−3.7average punt
- Q4 14:19AKR 4th & 12 at MASS 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snapGo for it48.6%−3.122% to convertField goalTheir call51.6%66% to makePunt36.5%−15.2average punt
- Q4 14:19MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 39, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snapGo for it46.3%−2.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.0%average punt
- Q4 13:39AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 39, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 52.2% before the snapGo for it54.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.1%−4.9average punt
- Q4 5:43AKR 4th & 10 at MASS 19, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snapGo for it54.4%−4.227% to convertField goalTheir call58.6%77% to makePunt35.6%−23.1average punt
- Q4 5:43MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.0%−1.7average punt
- Q4 3:01MASS 4th & 20 at AKR 35, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 5.8 ptsWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.8%−5.810% to convertField goal26.6%45% to makePunt19.7%−6.9average punt
- Q4 1:59AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 41, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%−1.1average punt
- Q4 1:52MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 29, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.0%−10.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:50MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.4%97% to makeGo for two58.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:15AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.9%97% to makeGo for two42.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:54AKR Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.0%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 8 yds to the Akron 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 1:5260% → 60%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
59.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 4 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
59.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 7 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
60.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Bryce CheekSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+1
60.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 1 yd to the Akron 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 11:36
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+9
60.2%
Zach Paul punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 40 , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 9 yds to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3861% → 63%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
60.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 18 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5TD10 plays · 73 yds · 4:3538% → 42%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
62.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Christian Allen for 6 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+10
62.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 10 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
61.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 4
50
+19
62.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 19 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
57.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 27 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
59.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Jordan GeorgeSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 0
0
59.5%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Nesmith, S., PENALTY UMASS pass interference off-setting, PENALTY AKRON pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
59.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Zach GuiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 1:4741% → 42%
Q1 1:47
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+8
59.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 8 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
58.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Randall Jette) to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
57.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 2 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+4
57.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 4 yds to the UMass 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
AKRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
58.2%
HUNDLEY, Conor rush for 10 yards to the AKRON45 (Singh, C.), PENALTY AKRON holding (GAUTHNEY, L.) 10 yards to the AKRON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+9
59.8%
Zach Paul punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 33 , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 9 yds to the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1460% → 62%
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+10
60.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by John SenterSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+3
60.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 3 yds to the Akron 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
58.1%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Trey Dudley-Giles return for no gain to the Akron 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12FG6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0265% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13FUMBLE5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
64.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 11 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+1
64.2%
Thomas Woodson run for 1 yd to the Akron 41 Thomas Woodson fumbled, forced by Jovan Santos-Knox, recovered by UMass Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14FG8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0567% → 70%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
66.8%
Elgin Long run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 49 Elgin Long fumbled, forced by Se'Von Pittman, recovered by UMass Tyrell SmithSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+11
64.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 11 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+11
66.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 11 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
67.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 3 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
67.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Kris GivensSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+3
66.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 3 yds to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15INT3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0032% → 35%
MASSDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
AKRDrive 18TD12 plays · 73 yds · 6:0634% → 50%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
65.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 11 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+23
71.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 23 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
66.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 4 yds to the UMass 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
54.3%
Frohnapfel, B. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UMASS15 (MARCUS, Jamal), PENALTY AKRON offside defense 5 yards to the UMASS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+15
53.8%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan George) to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
59.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 24 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
62.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-8
55.6%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Cody Grice for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20MISSED FG14 plays · 32 yds · 6:0150% → 49%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
49.2%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (LANE, Jerome) 15 yards to the AKRON39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+10
47.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 10 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
47.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Andrew Pratt, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
45.9%
Thomas Woodson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 25 Thomas Woodson fumbled, recovered by Akron Thomas WoodsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+14
52.7%
Marquis Young run for 14 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
54.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by John SenterSimilar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
52.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by Kris GivensSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
51.0%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q4 13:39
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
49.3%
Zach Paul punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
AKRDrive 24FG7 plays · 47 yds · 3:3254% → 73%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+25
46.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 25 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25DOWNS16 plays · 40 yds · 2:4237% → 31%
Q4 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
36.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 6 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
36.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur Nesmith, broken up by DeAndre ScottSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+11
38.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 11 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
40.4%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Mills, R., PENALTY AKRON holding (BROWN, Kyron) 10 yards to the AKRON35, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
44.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 10 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-12
40.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, intentional grounding (Blake Frohnapfel) to the Akron 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5682% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27INT7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0023% → 28%
Q4 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
23.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 3 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
21.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 2 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
24.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 18 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
27.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted DeAndre Scott return for no gain to the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 23
-22.1
TD · Q3 8:54
Thomas Woodson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
-16.1
FG · Q4 5:43
Robert Stein 36 yd FG GOOD
-16