Try the model
BALL

Ball State 7 at Western Michigan 54

WMU
2015 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2015 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:01 · Alex Egan run for a loss of 13 yards to the BalSt 32 Alex Egan fumbled, recovered by BalSt Nick Plavchak
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Pregame prior+20.3Home team on offense+26.4Score differential+23.0Blowout margin+10.2Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 14:03: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — BALL win probability +0.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:30: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +4.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:03: LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman PAT BLOCKED) — WMU win probability +5.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:15: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:06: Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK) — WMU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:03BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58WMU 4th & 8 at BALL 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:51BALL 4th & 7 at WMU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00WMU 4th & 1 at BALL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:30BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:03BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 49, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:20WMU 4th & 2 at BALL 4, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 21, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:06BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 40, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:20WMU 4th & 7 at BALL 24, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 29, down 40
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:50BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 28, down 47
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:48WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 27, up 47
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:31WMU 4th & 1 at BALL 35, up 47
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:31WMU 4th & 9 at BALL 30, up 47
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:03WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:30WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:03WMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:15WMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:06WMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:02BALL Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:04WMU Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:50WMU Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5786% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
85.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel Braverman, broken up by Sean WigginsSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+65
85.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.6%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+6
85.6%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 14:03
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
85.6%
Alex Egan punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:4386% → 85%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
85.5%
FRANKLIN, J rush for 6 yards to the WMU29 (WHITMAN III, J.;RYAN, Zack), PENALTY WMU tripping (OKORAFOR, C) 11 yards to the WMU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+1
85.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the WMich 13Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+27
85.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 27 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
85.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
85.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-3
85.5%
Zach Terrell sacked by Ben Ingle for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
85.2%
J. Schroeder punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:2915% → 15%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
85.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
85.2%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+13
85.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 13 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
84.9%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
85.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris Shillings, broken up by Jason SylvaSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+15
85.2%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MABON, KeVonn, QB hurry by LEWIS, Austin, PENALTY WMU pass interference (PHILLIPS, D) 15 yards to the BALL42, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
84.8%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
84.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Ronald ZamortSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
85.2%
Alex Egan punt for 46 yds, downed at the WMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
84.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
84.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 16Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+8
84.6%
Zach Terrell run for 8 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 34 Jarvion Franklin fumbled, forced by Zack Ryan, recovered by BalSt Martez HesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0717% → 16%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.5%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
83.5%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
83.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
84.1%
Morgan Hagee 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2185% → 88%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
84.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 20 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
85.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+15
85.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 15 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
85.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
85.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
85.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+5
84.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
88.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
87.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
87.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
86.7%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
87.0%
Alex Egan punt for 41 yds, downed at the WMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:4788% → 94%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
87.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+20
87.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 20 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-11
88.4%
TERRELL, Zach pass incomplete to BRAVERMAN, D, QB hurry by RYAN, Zack, PENALTY WMU holding (DAY, Jackson) 11 yards to the WMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 21
OWN 38
+8
88.2%
Daniel Braverman run for 8 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+25
88.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 25 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
88.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+15
88.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 15 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Ronald ZamortSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
93.3%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to CURRY, Dylan for 18 yards to the BALL43 (BROWN, Asantay), PENALTY BALL holding (RICHARD, Jacob) 10 yards to the BALL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
93.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Ronald ZamortSimilar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 55 yds, downed at the WMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:0893% → 98%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.4%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the WMich 20Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
93.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+23
93.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 23 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-12
93.6%
TERRELL, Zach pass complete to DAVIS, Corey for 13 yards to the BALL40 (CONAWAY, Darius), PENALTY WMU tripping (KEENOY, John) 12 yards to the WMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
93.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 35Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+32
93.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 32 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
93.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+3
93.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 3 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
98.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 12 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
99.2%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-13
98.8%
Alex Egan run for a loss of 13 yards to the BalSt 32 Alex Egan fumbled, recovered by BalSt Nick PlavchakSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
98.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 20 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.5%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
98.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Daniel BravermanSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+21
98.8%
Andrew Haldeman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
98.7%
Riley Neal sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Daniel Braverman at the WMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:0099% → 100%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.0%
Zach Terrell run for 1 yd to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+15
99.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Daniel Braverman for 15 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+10
99.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Kendrick Roberts for 10 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
98.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+10
99.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 10 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.4%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.4%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Rontavious AtkinsSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 28 yds , Daniel Braverman returns for no gain to the WMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+29
99.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 29 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
99.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 12 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Kendrick RobertsSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
Zach Terrell run for 3 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
99.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
99.7%
Andrew Haldeman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
99.7%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.6%
Riley Neal run for 14 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 7 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
99.6%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+30
99.6%
James Gilbert run for 30 yds to the WMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the WMich 6Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
99.7%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to CURRY, Dylan for 6 yards to the WMU0, clock 03:09, PENALTY BALL ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WMU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
99.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
99.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+12
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 12 yds Corey Davis fumbled, forced by Ben Ingle, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
99.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 76 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
99.8%
Darian Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 7 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
99.8%
Tom Flacco run for 19 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
99.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WESTMICH 49 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Rontrell Peyton) to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
99.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+13
99.8%
Tom Flacco run for 13 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
99.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+13
99.8%
Tom Flacco run for 13 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 15 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.9%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 4 yds to the WMich 12Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Michael Henry for 5 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 3 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for no gain to the WMich 20Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 18 Tom Flacco fumbled, recovered by WMich Tom FlaccoSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+9
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 9 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.9%
J. Schroeder punt for 52 yds, downed at the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
100.0%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Ian Thomas return for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for no gain to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Lucas Bezerra for no gain to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Michael Henry for 9 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-1
99.9%
Fabian Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+15
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 15 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:03
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman PAT BLOCKED)
+5.2
TD · Q2 2:15
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+4.6
TD · Q2 14:30
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Andrew Haldeman KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com