Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 10 at Ball State 20

BALL
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2015 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+3.7BALL 79.1%Morgan Hagee 36 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 20 · Q3 5:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:52 · Morgan Hagee 36 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense+13.0Pregame prior+2.2Garbage-time factor+6.3Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:52: NEAL, Riley pass complete to BRUNNER, Sam for 4 yards to the BALL49 (Colton, J.), PENALTY BALL holding (MILLER, Drake) 10 yards to the BALL35, NO PLAY. — BALL win probability +5.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: James Gilbert 2 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick) — BALL win probability +9.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:07: Jordan Williams 10 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick) — BALL win probability +9.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:21: Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +12.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:42: James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 8 — BALL win probability +7.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47BALL 4th & 9 at MASS 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:05MASS 4th & 7 at BALL 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:23BALL 4th & 1 at MASS 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:50MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55MASS 4th & 6 at BALL 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MASS 4th & 7 at BALL 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:21BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:02MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:52BALL 4th & 7 at MASS 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:42MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:42BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:51MASS 4th & 6 at BALL 26, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08BALL 4th & 8 at MASS 9, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 1:15BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:07BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:21MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
56.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 20 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
56.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Tajae Sharpe) to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+3
56.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-3
56.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+7
56.4%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 7 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
56.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 5:1757% → 58%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
56.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+14
56.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 14 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
56.6%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
56.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
57.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
57.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 27 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
57.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
57.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
57.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-10
57.3%
GILBERT, James rush for 7 yards to the UMASS9 (Downey, D.;Jette, R.), PENALTY BALL holding (RICHARD, Jacob) 10 yards to the UMASS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 18
OPP 26
+9
57.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
57.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+34
57.7%
Morgan Hagee 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:4242% → 42%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.4%
Jamal Wilson run for 7 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
57.0%
Jamal Wilson run for 8 yds to the BALLST 49 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
56.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 16 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
56.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 2 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+5
56.6%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
56.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
56.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+3
56.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+5
56.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shaquille Harris for 5 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
56.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
57.7%
Logan Laurent 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4DOWNS
17 plays · 79 yds · 4:4258% → 59%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
57.8%
Darian Green run for 11 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
57.9%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
57.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
58.9%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+17
58.8%
Darian Green run for 17 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
59.2%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
59.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 7 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
59.4%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HOGUE, Jordan, PENALTY UMASS holding (Brackett, K.) 10 yards to the UMASS15, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
59.4%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the UMass 11Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
59.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the UMass 10Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+8
59.0%
CURRY, Dylan pass incomplete to NEAL, Riley, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Jette, R.) 8 yards to the UMASS2, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
59.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
60.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the UMass 2Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the UMass 1Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.2%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the UMass 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
58.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Michael Boland) to the UMass 1Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
58.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the UMass 2Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
58.8%
Wilson, J. rush for 6 yards to the UMASS8 (McPHATTER, Jake;INGLE, Ben), PENALTY UMASS holding (Sparks, M.) 1 yards to the UMASS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+15
58.8%
Jamal Wilson run for 15 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
58.3%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
58.5%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 6 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+5
58.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 5 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
58.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shaquille Harris for 12 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 4 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
56.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
57.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur NesmithSimilar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
58.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
59.2%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
59.5%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
59.5%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
59.3%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
59.0%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Randall Jette return for no gain to the UMass 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
58.8%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 6 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+2
57.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
58.3%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
57.8%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 1 yd to the UMass 39Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
57.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 8 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
57.0%
Jamal Wilson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
56.5%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-2
56.5%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Carlutorbantu Zaramo for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+3
57.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
58.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Elgin LongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3764% → 73%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
63.5%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to BRUNNER, Sam for 4 yards to the BALL49 (Colton, J.), PENALTY BALL holding (MILLER, Drake) 10 yards to the BALL35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+9
60.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 9 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+14
62.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 14 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+40
64.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 40 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.2%
James Gilbert 2 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 1:0930% → 32%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
70.0%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+9
68.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 9 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
67.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur NesmithSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
68.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 8 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
68.6%
Jamal Wilson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
68.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Sharif Custis for 20 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
67.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Tajae Sharpe) to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 15
OPP 20
0
69.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+8
70.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
67.7%
Logan Laurent 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:4272% → 81%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
71.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
71.9%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
81.0%
Jordan Williams 10 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:4221% → 35%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
79.5%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
79.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for no gain to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+9
79.6%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 9 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Ben IngleSimilar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
79.2%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 3
50
+5
78.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
78.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 11 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
77.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 27 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.8%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
70.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
70.9%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
69.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
68.6%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 7 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
67.6%
Jamal Wilson run for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
67.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
70.2%
Logan Laurent punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:3974% → 79%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Trey Dudley-GilesSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
73.4%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MABON, KeVonn, PENALTY UMASS pass interference (Brackett, K.) 15 yards to the BALL42, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
75.5%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
75.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+9
74.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
76.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 21 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
76.5%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
76.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
75.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Charan SinghSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
79.1%
Morgan Hagee 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
78.8%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+13
78.3%
Marquis Young run for 13 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
78.0%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-10
77.8%
Wilson, J. rush for 6 yards to the UMASS37 (McPHATTER, Jake), PENALTY UMASS holding (Sparks, M.) 10 yards to the UMASS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 18
OWN 21
0
78.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 18
OWN 21
+5
79.7%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
80.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FUMBLE
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:2081% → 86%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
80.9%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
81.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
80.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
82.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
82.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+11
81.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
82.6%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
82.5%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
82.4%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+9
81.7%
Riley Neal run for 9 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
85.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 13 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
85.5%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the UMass 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-8
85.5%
Riley Neal sacked by Charan Singh for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 22 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by UMass Charan Singh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17INT
14 plays · 72 yds · 0:0016% → 21%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
83.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 1 yd to the UMass 23Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
84.1%
Jamal Wilson run for 8 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
82.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 2 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
82.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jamal WilsonSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
83.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 6 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
82.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 5 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
81.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+13
80.1%
Marquis Young run for 13 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
79.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 27 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (Shakur Nesmith) to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+10
81.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 10 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
79.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 6 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
79.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Ben Ingle return for 3 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
79.0%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
79.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
86.0%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
85.8%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
86.1%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
86.3%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
85.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+16
84.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 37 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 16 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
87.8%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+14
87.9%
Marquis Young run for 14 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
86.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 5 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
86.0%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+3
87.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 3 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-5
88.1%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (Elgin Long) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+5
89.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 5 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 0:4492% → 94%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
91.7%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
93.1%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+53
93.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 53 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
94.9%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+9
95.5%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the UMass 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
95.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the UMass 10Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
95.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the UMass 9Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
95.2%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the UMass 9Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+4
94.4%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
97.3%
Shadrach Abrokwah run for 12 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:21
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 1:15
James Gilbert 2 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)
+9.3
TD · Q3 14:07
Jordan Williams 10 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com