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BUF

Buffalo 29 at Miami (OH) 24

M-OH
2015 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2015 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior−7.4Home team on offense−23.1Garbage-time factor−9.3Score differential−10.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:20: Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +11.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:10: Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:15: Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED) — BUF win probability +14.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:29: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BUF win probability +9.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:21: Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK) — M-OH win probability +17.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23BUF 4th & 2 at M-OH 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:32M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:44BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00M-OH 4th & 3 at BUF 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:16M-OH 4th & 2 at BUF 16, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%−0.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:16BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:12M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:03BUF 4th & 1 at M-OH 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−2.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:39M-OH 4th & 7 at BUF 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:22M-OH 4th & 20 at BUF 40, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 34, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:29BUF 4th & 7 at M-OH 31, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:29M-OH 4th & 11 at BUF 26, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−5.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:55BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 34, up 12
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:31M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 26, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:01BUF 4th & 5 at M-OH 49, up 12
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:39BUF 4th & 6 at M-OH 46, up 5
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 5:46M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:29BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:20BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:10M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:15BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:29BUF Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:21M-OH Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
23.1%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Christian Koch punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5976% → 75%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
23.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+7
23.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+11
23.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
23.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
23.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
24.8%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
25.1%
Adam Mitcheson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5125% → 25%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
25.2%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 9 yds to the MiaOh 34 MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
25.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
25.0%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
24.9%
Christian Koch punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4INT TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3375% → 71%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
25.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
25.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
25.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+14
25.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 14 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-6
24.9%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 16
OPP 29
-4
25.2%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+76
29.1%
Joe Licata pass intercepted for a TD Brison Burris return for 76 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
27.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 78 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
26.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 16 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
27.2%
Maurice Thomas run for 10 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.4%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
27.3%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-5
26.7%
Billy Bahl sacked by Okezie Alozie for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
26.1%
Christian Koch punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3972% → 71%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
27.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 20 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (Marcus McGill) to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
27.5%
Devin Campbell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-2
27.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Brandon Smiley for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+2
28.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
28.7%
Tyler Grassman punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:4028% → 34%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
28.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Ryan Smith) to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+14
28.0%
Leonard Ross run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+15
28.9%
Kenny Young run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
29.7%
BAHL, Billy pass incomplete to MARTIN, Sam, PENALTY UB pass interference (ROSS, Boise) 15 yards to the UB41, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
30.1%
Leonard Ross run for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-1
30.1%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+4
29.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+10
29.1%
Kenny Young run for 10 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
30.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
30.5%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
29.9%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
34.3%
Kaleb Patterson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
31.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 16 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
30.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
30.5%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+4
31.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
31.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
34.7%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
34.8%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
33.9%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+4
33.1%
Christian Koch punt for 56 yds , Collin Lisa returns for 4 yds to the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:4868% → 79%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
32.2%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+7
32.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+8
32.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 8 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
31.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
50
+13
30.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 13 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
29.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 13 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
29.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+3
29.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 3 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
29.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Brandon Smiley, broken up by Allan KoikoiSimilar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+5
33.0%
MITCHESON, Adam field goal attempt from 37 MISSED - short,, clock 03:03, PENALTY MIAMI roughing the kicker (KOIKOI, Allan) 5 yards to the MIAMI15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+13
32.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:1027% → 43%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
27.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 37 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
29.5%
Leonard Ross run for 4 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
42.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
35.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+2
34.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4564% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
35.8%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
36.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
36.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 8 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+48
34.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 48 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
32.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete, broken up by Ikeem AllenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
32.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
33.7%
Joe Licata sacked by Bryson Albright for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
38.9%
MITCHESON, Adam field goal attempt from 29 GOOD, clock 11:20, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (WINTERS, Mitch) 7 yards to the MIAMI6, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3633% → 31%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
32.8%
Rokeem Williams run for 8 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
32.9%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+9
32.4%
Maurice Thomas run for 9 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
34.2%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
34.2%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
32.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
31.4%
Kaleb Patterson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1073% → 86%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
26.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+29
26.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 29 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
24.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+20
24.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 20 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by De'Andre MontgomerySimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
23.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
23.7%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
14.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
17.4%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
17.2%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+15
16.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 15 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
17.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 43 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
20.6%
Leonard Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
20.3%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 11
OPP 31
-9
18.4%
Billy Bahl sacked by Brandon Berry for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 40 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
17.1%
Christian Koch punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:3385% → 87%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
14.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+12
14.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
14.3%
LICATA, Joe pass complete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron for 11 yards to the UB39 (BIRDSALL, Bert), PENALTY UB ineligible downfield on pass (JOSEPH, Roubben) 5 yards to the UB23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+1
13.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+2
12.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-5
13.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (James O'Hagan) to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+13
13.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 13 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
13.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
14.9%
Rokeem Williams run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 34 Rokeem Williams fumbled, forced by Boise Ross, recovered by Buff Brandon BerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0689% → 89%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
11.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
11.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
11.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin Lisa, broken up by Buchi OkaforSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+47
10.9%
Adam Mitcheson 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Mitchell WintersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
14.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 24 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
16.4%
Leonard Ross run for 20 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.9%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
17.4%
Leonard Ross run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-2
16.1%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 11
OPP 26
0
14.4%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
8.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
8.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+7
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+54
9.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jared Murphy at the MIAMIOH 22 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (Tony Reid) to the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
8.1%
Billy Bahl run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
7.9%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Sam Martin, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+12
7.5%
Billy Bahl run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
8.3%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
8.0%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Sam MartinSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
7.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Jared Murphy, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
7.5%
Christian Koch punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1094% → 94%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
5.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+2
5.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 2 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
6.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:016% → 27%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.0%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete, broken up by Demone HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
5.9%
Billy Bahl run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
5.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Rokeem Williams for 13 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
6.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 23 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
7.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
7.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 12 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
9.5%
BAHL, Billy pass incomplete, PENALTY UB PU (1R) 15 yards to the UB14, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
9.5%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+10
9.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 10 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
9.5%
Billy Bahl run for 2 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
9.5%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.3%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:4290% → 94%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
50
0
9.7%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
50
+8
9.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-4
9.1%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
5.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 27 yds, downed at the MiaOh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
10.0%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
9.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
9.4%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+15
9.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brandon Crawford) to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
10.5%
Billy Bahl sacked by Solomon Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:21
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q3 11:15
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED)
-14.4
TD · Q2 1:10
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Martin for 16 yds for a TD, (Kaleb Patterson KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com