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TOL

Toledo 51 at Massachusetts 35

MASS
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Gillette Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:20 · Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the UMass 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense+11.1Pregame prior−14.6Score differential+3.8Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:23: Marquis Young run for 50 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +16.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:33: Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +12.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:13: Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +16.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 1:56: Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +20.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:13: Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +13.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 10 of 11TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:01TOL 4th & 5 at MASS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21TOL 4th & 9 at MASS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 35, down 4
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:44MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:51TOL 4th & 2 at MASS 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−1.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−9.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:46MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−4.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:20TOL 4th & 1 at MASS 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−4.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:25MASS 4th & 17 at MASS 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−4.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:52MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:45MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:58MASS 4th & 16 at MASS 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−6.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00TOL 4th & 2 at MASS 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−2.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−12.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:45MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:18MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:49MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 42, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:31TOL 4th & 6 at MASS 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:41TOL 4th & 7 at MASS 7, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:05MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 32, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:52MASS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:10TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:10MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:23MASS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:33TOL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:13TOL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:56TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:13TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:59TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:11MASS Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 3:3474% → 73%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
25.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+15
25.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
26.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
26.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
26.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
26.2%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+8
26.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
26.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
26.5%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the UMass 28Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
26.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+8
27.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 8 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
26.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the UMass 14Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
27.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-5
27.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (Phillip Ely) to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
27.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
27.2%
Jameson Vest 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4728% → 27%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
27.5%
Jamal Wilson run for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
27.9%
Jamal Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
27.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 6
OWN 39
-5
27.5%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Nick Berus) to the UMass 34Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
27.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds, downed at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3072% → 72%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
27.9%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
28.1%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Joe Colton return for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:5829% → 32%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
28.7%
Andy Isabella run for 8 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+3
28.8%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
29.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
29.4%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
29.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 5 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
29.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+12
29.9%
Marquis Young run for 12 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
31.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1969% → 68%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
30.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-3
31.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+8
31.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 8 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+16
31.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 41 yds , Trey Dudley-Giles returns for 16 yds to the UMASS 49 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3632% → 32%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
32.3%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+3
31.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 3 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 22
OWN 33
0
32.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Lorenzo WoodleySimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 22
OWN 33
+8
31.8%
Marquis Young run for 8 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+24
31.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 51 yds , Corey Jones returns for 24 yds to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:2968% → 68%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
32.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
32.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 13 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
32.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
32.1%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
31.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
32.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 20 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+48
31.6%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Randall Jette return for 48 yds to the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:1335% → 39%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
34.7%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 22 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
38.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 3:2262% → 66%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
38.4%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
38.3%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+9
38.9%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
39.4%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+22
39.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 22 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
38.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
39.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+7
40.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
39.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
39.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ruben Carter) to the UMass 20Similar
Q2 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+20
33.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 20 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:4536% → 47%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
36.2%
Marquis Young run for 2 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+12
36.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 12 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
37.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 13 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
38.5%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
38.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 14 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
47.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 35 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1456% → 54%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
44.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 3
50
-10
43.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+12
46.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
45.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
45.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
45.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+20
46.4%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Trey Dudley-Giles return for 20 yds to the 50 yard line Trey Dudley-Giles fumbled, forced by Corey Jones, recovered by UMass Joe Colton , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
50
+50
62.4%
Marquis Young run for 50 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5441% → 40%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
59.2%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
58.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
58.8%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
59.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 19 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
58.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
58.6%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the UMass 24Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
59.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
60.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5464% → 61%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
64.1%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 22Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
64.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 21Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
62.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+10
61.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 34 yds , Corey Jones returns for 10 yds to the Toled 31 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2037% → 37%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
63.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
63.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 7 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
62.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the UMass 36 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
63.3%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
62.7%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16INT
19 plays · 53 yds · 3:1467% → 72%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
66.8%
Sekai Lindsay run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 6
50
+7
66.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 7 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
68.9%
Sekai Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
69.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Jamal WilsonSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+15
70.8%
Sekai Lindsay run for 15 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
72.0%
Sekai Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
72.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 15 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
72.9%
Sekai Lindsay run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
70.0%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
71.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (5 Yards) to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shaquille HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
72.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 4 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+83
72.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Ja'Wuan Woodley return for 83 yds to the UMass 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:3072% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
72.3%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
76.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-10
76.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-15
75.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyshon Henderson) to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 26
OWN 19
+9
76.0%
Marquis Young run for 9 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
75.2%
Logan Laurent punt for 42 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:4526% → 38%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
73.9%
Terry Swanson run for 17 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
73.5%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+17
72.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 17 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
71.7%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
73.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UMass 21Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
72.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+6
74.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 6 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
73.4%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the UMass 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
73.9%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the UMass 4Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2367% → 68%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
67.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 6 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+10
68.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Brandon Howard for 10 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
70.4%
Jamal Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
70.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Elgin LongSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
67.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:2232% → 53%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+43
67.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 43 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
63.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 13 yds to the UMass 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
46.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1156% → 53%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
55.6%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+1
55.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 1 yd to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
54.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
53.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:3946% → 68%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
53.7%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+18
52.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 18 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
50.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Terry Swanson for 4 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
50.2%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-5
50.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Michael Roberts) to the UMass 47Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
52.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 15 yds Corey Jones fumbled, recovered by Toled Corey Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
49.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-16
49.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (-16 Yards) to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 22
OPP 44
+6
54.3%
Phillip Ely run for 6 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+28
56.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 28 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
50.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
51.9%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the UMass 4Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
31.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4638% → 35%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
37.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
37.5%
Marquis Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 11
OWN 10
0
35.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur NesmithSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 11
OWN 10
-5
35.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Steve Casali) to the UMass 5Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 16
OWN 5
+10
34.6%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds , Corey Jones returns for 10 yds to the UMass 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:3268% → 83%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
32.1%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
30.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
32.2%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+7
34.4%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the UMass 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+13
30.5%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the UMass 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
30.5%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the UMass 1Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.4%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4219% → 16%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
18.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 2 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
17.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+16
16.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 52 yds , Corey Jones returns for 16 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+16
16.1%
Logan Laurent punt for 52 yds , Corey Jones returns for 16 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:0182% → 95%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
18.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+8
15.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
15.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the UMass 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
15.2%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 33Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+2
15.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+31
5.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 31 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:015% → 5%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
5.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Elgin Long for 6 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+10
5.6%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 10 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
5.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur NesmithSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
5.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+3
5.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 3 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
5.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0995% → 99%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
4.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
4.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UMass 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
4.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+15
4.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 15 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
4.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
3.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the UMass 8Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
3.9%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
1.5%
Jameson Vest 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 29TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:041% → 10%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
1.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 11 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
1.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 1 yd to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+19
1.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 19 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
1.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 31 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
2.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
2.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
1.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marquis Young for 3 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 3 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 2:2496% → 99%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
4.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+9
3.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 9 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+11
3.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 11 yds to the UMass 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.8%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the UMass 7Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the UMass 7Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+29
1.4%
Jameson Vest 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:151% → 1%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
1.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 4 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
1.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
1.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
1.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:5099% → 99%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-5
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:56
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-20
TD · Q3 8:13
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q2 8:23
Marquis Young run for 50 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
+16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com