2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:40 · Anthony Melchiori punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:40: Matt Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:38: Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:35: Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:21: Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 58 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:07: Tyler Tate 25 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 10 of 10BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 15:00BGSU 4th & 1 at KENT 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.2%71% to convertField goal72.0%−0.251% to makePunt71.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:40BGSU 4th & 1 at KENT 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.9%65% to convertField goal69.6%−0.293% to makePunt69.0%−0.9average punt
- Q1 9:34KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snapGo for it28.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.5%average punt
- Q1 4:33KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.6%average punt
- Q2 8:45BGSU 4th & 4 at KENT 4, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.6%40% to convertField goalTheir call86.3%−0.393% to makePunt83.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 6:21KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.2%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.9%average punt
- Q2 2:22KENT 4th & 8 at BGSU 22, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call6.9%72% to makePunt6.0%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:24BGSU 4th & 8 at KENT 31, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%54% to makePunt94.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 14:53KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 20, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 13:26BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 28, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%average punt
- Q3 11:19KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 1, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.224% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q3 8:07BGSU 4th & 4 at KENT 7, up 31Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%−<0.191% to makePunt96.9%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:07KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 26, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 6:39BGSU 4th & 6 at KENT 49, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.1%average punt
- Q3 4:40KENT 4th & 13 at KENT 32, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 19 at KENT 28, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 8:50KENT 4th & 6 at BGSU 44, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goal0.2%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 1:55BGSU 4th & 10 at KENT 48, up 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 26, up 48Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:40BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.7%97% to makeGo for two70.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:38BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:35BGSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.4%97% to makeGo for two80.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:21BGSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:01BGSU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:55BGSU Touchdown, up 47 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:2077% → 76%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
22.6%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Elcee RefugeSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+35
22.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 35 yds to the KENTST 41 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+7
22.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 7 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+5
22.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 5 yds to the KntSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
22.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+3
25.0%
TATE, Tyler field goal attempt from 26 MISSED - wide left,, clock 09:48, PENALTY KENT roughing the kicker (MURRAY, Najee) 3 yards to the KENT4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
BGSUDrive 3TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4076% → 79%
Q1 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+12
23.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 10
50
+9
23.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 9 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+15
24.3%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to BURBRINK, Ryan, PENALTY KENT pass interference (REDMOND, Darius) 15 yards to the KENT26, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
21.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-10
22.3%
BOLLAS, George pass complete to WASHINGTON, M. for 12 yards to the KENT43, out-of-bounds (TEAM), PENALTY KENT holding (MACAULAY, Brock) 10 yards to the KENT21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+7
22.1%
George Bollas pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 7 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
22.1%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 47 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for no gain to the BwGrn 28 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (Ronnie Moore) to the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD11 plays · 85 yds · 2:5679% → 85%
Q1 2:31
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+16
21.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 16 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 7
50
+19
20.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Fred Coppet for 19 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+11
20.4%
KENT ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Elcee Refuge) to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
15.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6INT8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0016% → 17%
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.8%
George Bollas pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 1 yd to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+22
15.7%
George Bollas pass complete to P.J. Simmons for 22 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
16.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+15
16.1%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to DIXON, Antwan, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (REDDING, Teo) 15 yards to the BGSU40, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
16.7%
George Bollas pass intercepted Eilar Hardy return for 28 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FG11 plays · 51 yds · 3:0985% → 85%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
14.7%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY KENT illegal use of hands 15 yards to the KENT40, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
14.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 11 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
14.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for 12 yds to the KntSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2414% → 13%
BGSUDrive 9TD6 plays · 78 yds · 1:5586% → 91%
Q2 6:16
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+9
14.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 9 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
13.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 5 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+58
8.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 58 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 53 yds · 1:596% → 6%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
6.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 40 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+15
6.6%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to WOODS, Johnny, PENALTY BGSU targeting (TURNER, Dernard) 15 yards to the BGSU24, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
6.7%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Ernest Calhoun, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11MISSED FG11 plays · 47 yds · 1:5893% → 94%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
6.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 11 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+8
6.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Fred Coppet for 8 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+31
7.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 31 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
6.4%
GREENE, Travis rush for 14 yards to the KENT19 (McRAE, Juantez), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the KENT43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+4
6.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 4 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
5.8%
Tyler Tate 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Najee Murray TEAM return for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
KENTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
5.6%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
KENTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
4.8%
BOLLAS, George pass complete to WOODS, Johnny for 10 yards to the KENT11 (MACK, Alfonso;HARDY, Eilar), PENALTY KENT ineligible downfield on pass 0 yards to the KENT1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
4.8%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16FG5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2397% → 98%
KENTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
BGSUDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
KENTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
2.0%
George Bollas pass complete to Johnny Woods for 15 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-8
2.0%
George Bollas sacked by Zach Colvin for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 32Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
1.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD2 plays · 77 yds · 0:3199% → 99%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
0.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 13 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
0.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 64 yds for a TD KENT ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:011% → 0%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 4 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-11
0.5%
George Bollas sacked by James Sanford for a loss of 11 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+4
0.4%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 49 yds , Ryan Burbrink returns for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (Clint Stephens) to the BwGrn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BGSUDrive 23TD9 plays · 57 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
KENTDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BGSUDrive 25PUNT11 plays · 32 yds · 5:19100% → 100%
Q4 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
0.3%
James Knapke pass complete to Herve Coby for 13 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
0.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 5 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:21
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 58 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-5
TD · Q2 14:35
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q1 4:38
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-2.5