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OHIO

Ohio 17 at Buffalo 41

BUF
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:57 · Adam Mitcheson 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ian Wells Kurt Laseak return for no gain to the Ohio 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense+25.1Score differential+17.3Garbage-time factor+8.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Pregame prior−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:20: Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — BUF win probability +5.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:22: Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — BUF win probability +12.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:05: Derrius Vick pass intercepted for a TD Okezie Alozie return for 22 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +8.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Adam Mitcheson 24 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +8.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:58: Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +10.1 pts (now 18%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:35BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:54OHIO 4th & 3 at BUF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:44OHIO 4th & 6 at BUF 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:22OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:54BUF 4th & 9 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:58OHIO 4th & 1 at BUF 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.9%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 5 at OHIO 7, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−8.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:36OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:57BUF 4th & 4 at OHIO 14, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:06BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 18, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:06OHIO 4th & 21 at BUF 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:58BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:39OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:57BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:49OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:46OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:31BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:20BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:22BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:05BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:58OHIO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:58BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1455% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
44.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 9 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
44.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+7
44.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 7 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+13
44.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 13 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
44.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
44.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+14
44.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 14 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.6%
Derrius Vick run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
44.6%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+24
44.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Robbie Walker for 24 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
43.5%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
44.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
44.5%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
44.2%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
43.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
46.2%
Derrius Vick pass intercepted for a TD Ryan Williamson return for 15 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:3754% → 53%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.2%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 5 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
46.0%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Ohio 31Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
46.2%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 6 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
45.9%
Dorian Brown run for no gain to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.0%
Derrius Vick run for 4 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+12
45.8%
[SGUN], VICK, Derrius pass incomplete to SMITH, S., QB hurry by GILBO, Nick, PENALTY UB pass interference (LEWIS, Cameron) 12 yards to the UB47, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-13
45.5%
Derrius Vick sacked by Nick Gilbo for a loss of 13 yards to the BUFFALO 40 OHIO Penalty, intentional grounding (Derrius Vick) to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 23
OWN 40
+21
46.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 21 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-1
45.5%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
46.7%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Sebastian Smith, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3048% → 54%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.2%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
47.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
48.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
50
+11
48.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
48.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the Ohio 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
48.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 24 yds to the Ohio 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:3648% → 49%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
52.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 5 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
52.5%
[SGUN], VICK, Derrius pass incomplete to SMITH, S. (WILLIAMSON, Rya), PENALTY UB holding (BERRY, Brandon) 10 yards to the OHIO41, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
51.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
51.4%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+9
51.8%
Derrius Vick pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 9 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
51.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+16
52.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 16 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
51.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 6 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
51.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 9 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
51.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
51.3%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+4
52.5%
Derrius Vick run for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
51.1%
Josiah Yazdani 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:1451% → 65%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+26
51.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 26 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
52.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+10
53.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 10 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
53.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+2
53.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+19
52.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 19 yds to the Ohio 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
53.4%
Devin Campbell run for 4 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
53.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 16Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+15
52.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 15 yds to the Ohio 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.2%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
63.2%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-15
63.2%
[SGUN], VICK, Derrius pass complete to SMITH, S. for 4 yards to the OHIO40 (BAKER, Marqus), PENALTY OHIO pass interference (SMITH, S.) 15 yards to the OHIO21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 24
OWN 21
0
64.3%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Sebastian Smith, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+10
64.9%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 10 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
65.1%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
64.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 21 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
66.2%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
65.7%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+3
64.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 9
50
0
63.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10INT TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:4032% → 23%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
68.4%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 5 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+22
76.9%
Derrius Vick pass intercepted for a TD Okezie Alozie return for 22 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11INT
13 plays · 32 yds · 1:3924% → 24%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
75.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 5 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
75.5%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 4 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
75.1%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 2 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
75.5%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 4 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
74.9%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 2 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
75.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
74.9%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
74.5%
Derrius Vick sacked by Demone Harris and Justin Brandon for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 48Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+8
79.4%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+7
77.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 7 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+43
75.9%
Derrius Vick pass intercepted Debray Williams return for 43 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:3682% → 89%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
81.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+10
81.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 10 yds to the Ohio 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
81.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Ian WellsSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
81.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
81.4%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+5
81.0%
MITCHESON, Adam field goal attempt from 29 MISSED - wide left,, clock 00:05, PENALTY OHIO roughing the kicker (WELLS, Ian) 5 yards to the OHIO7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
89.2%
Adam Mitcheson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
89.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
88.8%
Tyler Grassman punt for 46 yds , Daz'mond Patterson returns for 11 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.0%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
88.1%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
88.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+8
88.7%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 44 yds , Collin Lisa returns for 8 yds to the Buff 41 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15MISSED FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:5991% → 94%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
91.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
91.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+3
90.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 25
-5
90.3%
GRASSMAN, Tyler punt 43 yards to the OHIO32, downed, PENALTY UB illegal formation 5 yards to the UB20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+15
90.2%
GRASSMAN, Tyler punt 51 yards to the OHIO29, PATTERSON, D. return to the OHIO29 (WILLIAMS, Brand), PENALTY OHIO roughing the kicker (SCIPIO, Blake) 15 yards to the UB35, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
91.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
91.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
91.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
91.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+9
91.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 9 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.6%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass complete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron for 14 yards to the OHIO23, out-of-bounds (WELLS, Ian), PENALTY UB illegal touching (WILLOUGHBY, Ron) 0 yards to the OHIO37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+17
91.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 17 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
91.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
91.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
91.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
94.0%
Adam Mitcheson 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ian Wells Kurt Laseak return for no gain to the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:597% → 18%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.4%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan CopeSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-3
93.5%
[SGUN], PENALTY OHIO false start (COOPER, Josh) 3 yards to the OHIO16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 13
OWN 16
0
93.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Kylan Nelson OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+19
93.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 19 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.2%
Maleek Irons run for 4 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+28
93.2%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 28 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
92.4%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 8 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+20
92.2%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 20 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.3%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
92.3%
Derrius Vick run for 3 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.2%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 5:5287% → 95%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
87.4%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Ian WellsSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+10
86.8%
Joe Licata run for 10 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 9
50
+10
87.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 10 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
87.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+8
87.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
92.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-15
92.0%
[PSTL], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY UB pass interference (SCHRECK, Mason) 15 yards to the OHIO31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+8
91.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
91.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
94.5%
Adam Mitcheson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 7 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+22
93.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 22 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
93.5%
Derrius Vick run for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+13
93.4%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 13 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Keith HeitzmanSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-8
93.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 2 yds to the Buff 27 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Keith Heitzman) to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+6
93.6%
Derrius Vick run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 12
OPP 31
-9
93.5%
Derrius Vick sacked by Charles Harris and Justin Brandon for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
94.1%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
95.5%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
95.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+2
95.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
95.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Daz'mond Patterson at the Ohio 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
95.8%
Derrius Vick sacked by Okezie Alozie for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 37Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan Reid, broken up by Marqus BakerSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+8
96.2%
[SGUN], VICK, Derrius pass intercepted by WILLIAMSON, Rya at the OHIO44, WILLIAMSON, Rya return to the OHIO15 (LUCAS, Mike), PENALTY UB pass interference (DADEBOE, Andrew) 8 yards to the OHIO45, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.8%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.9%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 6 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
95.8%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for no gain to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+3
95.9%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:3697% → 98%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
97.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-5
98.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Tyler Grassman punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.8%
Derrius Vick run for 8 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Sebastian Smith, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+16
97.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 16 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
97.7%
Derrius Vick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Derrius Vick pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:5499% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
99.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24INT
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.5%
Dorian Brown run for 11 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
99.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 47 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
99.3%
[SGUN], WINDHAM, Greg pass incomplete to WALKER, Robbie (REMBERT, Willia), PENALTY OHIO holding (LUCAS, Mike) 10 yards to the UB27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+2
99.4%
Greg Windham pass intercepted Houston Glass return for 2 yds to the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
99.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 8Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-1
99.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:22
Joe Licata run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) OHIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+12.4
TD · Q3 3:58
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q2 3:05
Derrius Vick pass intercepted for a TD Okezie Alozie return for 22 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com