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BUF

Buffalo 14 at Central Michigan 51

CMU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:27 · Tyler Grassman punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 24 , Emmitt Thomas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 19 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Eric Cooper) to the CMich 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+28.4Score differential+25.7Pregame prior+6.8Blowout margin+12.3Garbage-time factor+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:03: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 34 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +3.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:05: Cooper Rush run for 1 yd for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +3.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:09: Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 46 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:23: Cooper Rush pass complete to Trevor Thomas for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:54: Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:56BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at CMU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:32BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:54BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 24, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:25CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 43, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 49, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:40CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 13, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:27BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 20, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:24CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 18, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:28BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 49, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:28BUF 4th & 1 at CMU 31, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at CMU 20, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:01CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 14, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:59CMU 4th & 2 at BUF 41, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:56CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:03BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:05CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:09CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:23CMU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:54CMU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:28CMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:39BUF Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:35CMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0466% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
66.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Zach Crouch for 18 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
66.3%
Martez Walker run for 7 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+9
66.3%
Martez Walker run for 9 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.3%
Cooper Rush run for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+34
66.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 34 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
66.3%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.4%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
66.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
66.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
66.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone TaylorSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+6
67.0%
Tyler Grassman punt for 50 yds , Emmitt Thomas returns for 6 yds to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
67.3%
Martez Walker run for 4 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
67.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
67.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Ben McCordSimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
67.0%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:2633% → 36%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
67.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
67.2%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
67.2%
Joe Licata run for 5 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
67.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 6 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
67.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
64.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 34 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:5866% → 70%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
65.9%
Mark Chapman run for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+13
65.9%
Mark Chapman run for 13 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
66.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 9 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+15
66.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Andrews Dadeboe) to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
66.4%
Jay Roberson run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+12
66.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 12 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.4%
Jay Roberson run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.2%
Cooper Rush run for 1 yd for a TD BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 48 yds · 3:0531% → 32%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
68.8%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+5
69.0%
Jacob Martinez run for 5 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+11
69.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 11 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
68.3%
LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to SMILEY, Brandon, PENALTY CMU pass interference (COX, Josh) 15 yards to the CMU42, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
67.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
67.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
67.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
67.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 7 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-10
67.0%
JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 1 yard to the CMU23 (PERRY, Jeff;ANNESE, Tony), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the CMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+6
67.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 6 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+4
67.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 24
0
68.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2970% → 79%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.1%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
70.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Zach Crouch for 11 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.2%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
71.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
70.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 8 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+23
70.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 23 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
71.5%
Mark Chapman run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-15
71.5%
RUSH, Cooper pass complete to CONKLIN, Tyler for 9 yards to the UB22 (BERRY, Brandon), PENALTY CMU pass interference 15 yards to the UB46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+46
78.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 46 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8SF
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:3723% → 20%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
76.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
76.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-10
77.0%
LICATA, Joe pass complete to WILLOUGHBY, Ron for 7 yards to the UB27 (COX, Josh;RICKETTS, N.), PENALTY UB pass interference (WEISER, Matt) 10 yards to the UB10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 16
OWN 10
0
77.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jacob MartinezSimilar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
79.9%
Tyler Grassman punt blocked by Zach Oakley for a SAFETY blocked by Zach Oakley for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:0983% → 91%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
50
+18
82.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jay Roberson for 18 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
82.5%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
82.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Nathan Ricketts, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+12
82.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 12 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
82.6%
Corey Willis run for 14 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
82.6%
Martez Walker run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.6%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Trevor Thomas for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Joe Licata pass intercepted Kavon Frazier return for no gain to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:2492% → 98%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
92.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+10
92.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Martez Walker for 10 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
92.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, illegal use of hands (13 Yards) to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
92.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Gusty SchwartzmeierSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-10
92.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 20
OPP 23
+23
97.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
97.3%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-1
97.1%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete, broken up by Michael SteinhauerSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 31 yds, downed at the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:1498% → 98%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
98.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 4 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
97.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon CrawfordSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-6
97.8%
Cooper Rush sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 43 Cooper Rush fumbled, recovered by CMich Jack Ford , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
97.6%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
98.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
97.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 19 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
97.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
97.5%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
97.6%
Tyler Grassman punt for 41 yds, downed at the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
98.4%
Martez Walker run for 2 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
98.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Martez WalkerSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+10
98.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 10 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
98.4%
Martez Walker run for 6 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-2
98.4%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-13
98.4%
RUSH, Cooper pass complete to RICE, Anthony for 4 yards to the CMU30 (STANBACK, Brand), PENALTY CMU illegal block 13 yards to the CMU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 19
OWN 13
0
98.4%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the CMich 13Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
98.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 66 yds, downed at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
98.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
98.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-8
98.8%
Joe Licata sacked by Amari Coleman for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+55
98.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 24 , Emmitt Thomas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 19 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Eric Cooper) to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
99.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Kavon Frazier) to the CMich 12Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.4%
Jay Roberson run for 4 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
99.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+2
99.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jay Roberson for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 47 yds , Collin Lisa returns for no gain to the Buff 29 Collin Lisa fumbled, forced by Josh Cox, recovered by CMich Stefon ArmsteadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
99.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 11 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.5%
Martez Walker run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
99.5%
Martez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+15
99.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Trevor Thomas for 15 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.3%
Martez Walker run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Martez Walker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 49 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Kavon FrazierSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+11
99.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
99.5%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
99.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
99.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Brandon Smiley, broken up by Stefon ArmsteadSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
99.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 5 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 20
0
99.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21INT TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+17
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted for a TD Andrews Dadeboe return for 17 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:04100% → 100%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
Martez Walker run for 5 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Martez Walker run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
99.8%
Jay Roberson run for 3 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jay Roberson for 7 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 8
50
+15
99.8%
Romello Ross run for 15 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
99.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Ben McCord for 16 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 19 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Mason Schreck for 16 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Tony Daniel pass intercepted Stefon Armstead return for no gain to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
99.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Stefon Armstead) to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+2
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
99.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-2 Yards) to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+5
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Ron Coluzzi punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 11 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Chris Merchant pass incomplete to Kyril Threats, broken up by Tyree WallerSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 40 Johnathan Hawkins fumbled, recovered by CMich Gary JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 5 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Romello Ross run for 4 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
99.9%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:23
Cooper Rush pass complete to Trevor Thomas for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q2 9:09
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 46 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 2:54
Cooper Rush pass complete to Anthony Rice for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com