Try the model
AKR

Akron 10 at Bowling Green 59

BGSU
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:36 · Matt Domer run for 1 yd to the Akron 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:52: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 14 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK) — AKR win probability +5.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:46: Roger Lewis 12 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:19: Robert Stein 46 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +3.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:20: Gehrig Dieter 13 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:31: Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:19AKR 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q3 11:31BGSU 4th & 6 at AKR 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:24AKR 4th & 1 at BGSU 45, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−1.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:33BGSU 4th & 11 at AKR 32, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:56AKR 4th & 5 at BGSU 43, down 32
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:58AKR 4th & 1 at BGSU 43, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:41BGSU 4th & 10 at AKR 10, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:40BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:52AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:55BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:46BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:20BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:31BGSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:04BGSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:08BGSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:56BGSU Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.6%
Conor Hundley run for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
82.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 9 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
82.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+9
82.6%
Conor Hundley run for 9 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
82.6%
Thomas Woodson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
82.6%
Zach Paul punt for 7 yds, downed at the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 1:3982% → 83%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
82.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 19 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 1:52
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
77.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 14 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:5479% → 82%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
78.5%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 6 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+42
78.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 42 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
79.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+43
78.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Teo Redding for 43 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
79.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the Akron 12Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
79.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Derek Lee for 6 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.4%
Donovan Wilson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
86.3%
Roger Lewis 12 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7FG
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 10:19
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
82.7%
Robert Stein 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 5
OPP 13
+13
89.9%
Gehrig Dieter 13 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:31
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+34
97.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
97.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
50
+5
97.0%
Thomas Woodson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Conor Hundley run for no gain to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
97.1%
Conor Hundley run for no gain to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:2998% → 100%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.4%
Ronnie Moore run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
98.4%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to DIETER, Gehrig (BROWN, Jatavis), PENALTY AKRON offside 6 yards to the AKRON46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
98.3%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
98.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 2 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-3
98.4%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+11
98.3%
Travis Greene run for 11 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
98.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 5 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-6
98.4%
Matt Johnson sacked by Jatavis Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 32Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
98.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ronnie Moore, broken up by Bryce CheekSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+16
98.2%
Ryan Burbrink pass complete to Matt Johnson for 16 yds to the Akron 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
98.4%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the Akron 7Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+1
98.3%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Akron 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Conor Hundley run for no gain to the Akron 35Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Conor Hundley for 2 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
98.9%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, QB hurry by ROYSTER, Taylor, PENALTY BGSU roughing passer (ROYSTER, Taylor) 15 yards to the BGSU48, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
98.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Andrew PrattSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
98.4%
Zach Paul punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.7%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+14
99.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 14 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+41
99.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 41 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 10 yds to the Akron 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Tyrell Goodman, broken up by Dernard TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Thomas Woodson run for 2 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Alfonso Mack return for no gain to the Akron 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 7 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+41
99.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 41 yds to the Akron 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 21Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
99.9%
Thomas Woodson run for 7 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Donnell Alexander run for 7 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Donnell Alexander run for 3 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Josh McNeil for 10 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.9%
Donnell Alexander run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-1
99.8%
Donnell Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Josh McNeil for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-2
99.9%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:11100% → 100%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 7 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+39
99.9%
James Knapke pass complete to Herve Coby for 39 yds to the Akron 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the Akron 2Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the Akron 1Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 5Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 10Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
99.9%
Tyler Tate 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
100.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+4
100.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
100.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 12 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
100.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 3 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
100.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 43Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 47 Van Edwards Jr. fumbled, forced by Brandon Harris, recovered by BwGrn David KonowalskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
100.0%
Matt Domer run for 2 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
100.0%
Matt Domer run for 1 yd to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
100.0%
Matt Domer run for 1 yd to the Akron 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:31
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 34 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 4:20
Gehrig Dieter 13 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)
+7.2
TD · Q1 1:52
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 14 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com