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EMU

Eastern Michigan 20 at Toledo 63

TOL
2015 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2015 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:28 · Nick Ellis punt for 28 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+37.6Home team on offense+1.1Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:29: Dylan Mulder 23 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:09: Terry Swanson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:52: Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:11: Chase Murdock 45 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Jameson Vest Kick) — TOL win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:25: Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 55 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:01EMU 4th & 5 at TOL 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:53TOL 4th & 26 at EMU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:29EMU 4th & 6 at TOL 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at EMU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 2 at EMU 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06EMU 4th & 2 at TOL 47, down 1
    Close callPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:28TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33EMU 4th & 11 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11EMU 4th & 11 at TOL 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:25EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 48, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:00EMU 4th & 25 at EMU 11, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 48, down 50
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:29EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 42, down 50
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:14TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 26, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:09TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:25TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:52TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:11TOL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:25TOL Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:06TOL Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:06TOL Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:15TOL Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:07EMU Touchdown, down 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:25TOL Touchdown, up 49 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:20EMU Touchdown, down 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:594% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
96.0%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+11
96.0%
Reginald Bell run for 11 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
96.0%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
96.0%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Sam Browning, broken up by Cheatham NorrilsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+30
96.0%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Sam Browning for 30 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
96.0%
Eddie Daugherty run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
96.0%
Reginald Bell run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-2
96.0%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
95.1%
Dylan Mulder 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
95.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 17 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, offside defense (Clay Dawson) to the EMich 41Similar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+10
95.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
95.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 33Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-2
95.2%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-15
95.2%
ELY, Phillip pass complete to THOMPSON, Cody for 14 yards to the EMU21 (PACE, DaQuan), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (THOMPSON, Cody) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 29
50
+3
95.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 3 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 26
OPP 47
0
95.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 83 yds · 6:006% → 9%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
94.3%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 6 yds to the EMich 17Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
94.2%
Reginald Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+5
94.3%
Reginald Bell run for 5 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
94.2%
Reginald Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 21Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+8
94.2%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 8 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+4
93.7%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 4 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
93.7%
Darius Jackson run for 14 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
93.5%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+41
93.5%
Shaq Vann run for 41 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+3
93.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, substitution infraction (3 Yards) to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
93.4%
Darius Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.4%
Reginald Bell run for 1 yd to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
93.5%
Reginald Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 6 Reginald Bell fumbled, forced by Trent Voss,Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
91.5%
Dylan Mulder 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
16 plays · 78 yds · 3:2592% → 93%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
91.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
91.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+21
91.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 21 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.3%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
92.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+9
91.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 9 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
91.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
92.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 14 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
92.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the EMich 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
92.0%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
91.7%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the EMich 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+2
91.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the EMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.9%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.9%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
92.0%
Reginald Bell run for 14 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.6%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
91.7%
Shaq Vann run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 5
50
+3
91.5%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Darius Jackson for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
91.8%
Dylan Mulder punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
91.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Toled 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Toled Ruben CarterSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-8
91.7%
Phillip Ely run for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 18
OWN 6
+5
91.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 5 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
91.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.0%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
90.0%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Sam Browning for 11 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+39
89.7%
Reginald Bell pass intercepted Chaz Whittaker return for 39 yds to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:2991% → 94%
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
91.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 13 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo Russell, broken up by Ray TillmanSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
91.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+15
91.4%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
91.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the EMich 22Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-4
91.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+17
91.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 17 yds to the EMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
91.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:477% → 7%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.1%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Sam Browning, broken up by Keenen GibbsSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
93.2%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 15 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
92.5%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Cole Gardner) to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+13
93.2%
Shaq Vann run for 13 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
92.5%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-8
92.1%
Reginald Bell sacked by Treyvon Hester and Orion Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 11
50
0
93.2%
Dylan Mulder punt for 44 yds, downed at the Toled 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
3 plays · 94 yds · 0:4492% → 96%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
92.4%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+90
92.4%
Terry Swanson run for 90 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11MISSED FG TD
12 plays · 33 yds · 1:354% → 2%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
96.5%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
96.5%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 10 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
96.3%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Darius Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+30
96.8%
Darius Jackson run for 30 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
95.3%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-5
95.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Matt Thornton) to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
96.2%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
96.0%
Reginald Bell pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+45
98.4%
Chase Murdock 45 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Jameson Vest Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
98.4%
Darius Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
98.3%
Reginald Bell run for 12 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3598% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+22
97.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 22 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 55 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 4 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+6
99.5%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 6 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Dustin Creel for 4 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
99.4%
Darius Jackson run for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-4
99.4%
Reginald Bell sacked by Allen Covington for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 48Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Dylan Mulder punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
99.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+88
99.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 88 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
99.7%
Shaq Vann run for 8 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Reginald Bell run for no gain to the EMich 21Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+5
99.7%
Darius Jackson run for 5 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
99.7%
BELL, Reginald rush for no gain to the EMU26 (VOSS, Trent), PENALTY EMU holding (ARMSTRONG, K.) 10 yards to the EMU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 20
OWN 16
-3
99.7%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 13Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 23
OWN 13
-3
99.7%
Reginald Bell sacked by Ja'Wuan Woodley for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 10Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 26
OWN 10
+1
99.7%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 11Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 25
OWN 11
0
99.7%
Dylan Mulder punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+22
99.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 22 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 22 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the EMich 24Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+20
99.9%
Reginald Bell pass complete to Great Ibe for 20 yds Great Ibe fumbled, forced by Rolan Milligan, recovered by EMich for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-2
99.9%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 44Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-3
99.9%
Reginald Bell sacked by Tre James for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 42 Reginald Bell fumbled, recovered by Toled Marquise Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the EMich 41Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
Michael Julian pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
99.9%
Michael Julian pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Michael Julian pass complete to Zach Yousey for 14 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+28
99.9%
Shaq Vann run for 28 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the EMich 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kevin DavisSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+22
99.9%
Sam Browning run for 22 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 6 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Darius Jackson run for 3 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Darius Jackson run for 21 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+40
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 40 yds to the TOLEDO 49 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 9 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Devin AlexanderSimilar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+8
99.9%
Michael Julian pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 8 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 21 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ruben Carter) to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin Creel, broken up by Connery SwiftSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+10
100.0%
Darius Jackson run for 10 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-10
100.0%
ROBACK, Brogan pass complete to STONE, Austin for 12 yards to the EMU39 (SWIFT, Connery), PENALTY EMU holding (ARMSTRONG, K.) 10 yards to the EMU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 14
OWN 17
+8
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kevin Davis for 8 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+18
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 18 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
100.0%
VANN, Shaq rush for 10 yards to the TOLEDO47 (TAAFE, Tyler), PENALTY EMU holding (WYLIE, Andrew) 10 yards to the EMU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+7
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Blake Banham for 7 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Shaq Vann run for 2 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Austin StoneSimilar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Dylan Mulder punt for 29 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 36 Corey Jones fumbled, recovered by EMich Tyler OndaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+15
100.0%
Darius Jackson run for 15 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Izaiah Fuller for 3 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
100.0%
Darius Jackson run for 5 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sam BrowningSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
99.9%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BROWNING, Sam (TEACHEY, Josh), PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (OLEKANMA, R.) 3 yards to the TOLEDO3, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Darius Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 12 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Marc RemySimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 10
OWN 31
-5
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 15
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 43 yds , Blake Banham returns for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Juwan Lewis run for 1 yd to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Juwan Lewis run for 3 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+8
100.0%
Juwan Lewis run for 8 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
100.0%
Juwan Lewis run for 8 yds to the EMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:52
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q2 1:11
Chase Murdock 45 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Jameson Vest Kick)
+2.4
FG · Q1 1:29
Dylan Mulder 23 yd FG GOOD
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com