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BALL

Ball State 41 at Northern Illinois 59

NIU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 30 yds , Mayomi Olootu returns for no gain to the NoIll 41 Mayomi Olootu fumbled, recovered by BalSt David Moore
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+28.1Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:10: Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 13 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +8.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: James Gilbert run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +7.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:57: Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 48 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +8.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:57: Drew Hare run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +9.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:48: Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +9.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18BALL 4th & 7 at NIU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:11NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:56BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:56BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:53NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:56BALL 4th & 2 at NIU 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    29.2%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:20BALL 4th & 5 at NIU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:41BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:14NIU 4th & 6 at BALL 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:14BALL 4th & 15 at NIU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52BALL 4th & 1 at NIU 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:55BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 14:56BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:22NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:10NIU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:41NIU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:05NIU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:09BALL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:40NIU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:57BALL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:57NIU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:48BALL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:00NIU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:33NIU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:05BALL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.1%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
78.1%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
78.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 30 yds , Mayomi Olootu returns for no gain to the NoIll 41 Mayomi Olootu fumbled, recovered by BalSt David MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:5722% → 23%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
77.9%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 0
0
77.8%
PENALTY BALL unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NIU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+15
77.9%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jord., PENALTY NIU pass interference (LOGAN, Paris) 15 yards to the NIU23, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
77.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
77.8%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
77.9%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
77.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam Brunner, broken up by Renard CherenSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
77.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
77.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris Shillings, broken up by Sean FolliardSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+24
76.9%
Morgan Hagee 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
76.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
77.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+4
76.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 4 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Chad BeebeSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
76.9%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+2
77.0%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+12
77.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 49 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 12 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
76.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
76.0%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
76.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
75.9%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
76.1%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
75.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
75.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
76.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds , Chad Beebe returns for no gain to the NoIll 15 Chad Beebe fumbled, forced by Nick Traub, recovered by NoIll Elijah CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
74.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
74.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-2
74.4%
Drew Hare sacked by Michael Ayers for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+63
74.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 48 yds BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:4625% → 33%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
74.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
74.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 13 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
74.4%
Riley Neal sacked by Sean Folliard for a loss of 11 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+5
74.7%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+21
75.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 21 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
74.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Dylan Curry for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
73.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+36
74.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 36 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
73.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
73.6%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
70.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan CurrySimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
67.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:2667% → 73%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
66.8%
Kenny Golladay run for 3 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+19
66.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 19 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
67.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
67.9%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
50
+16
67.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 16 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
68.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+13
68.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 13 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
68.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+18
68.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 18 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the BalSt 3Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.2%
Kenny Golladay run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:5631% → 38%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
69.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
68.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
68.7%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
68.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
68.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 7 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
68.3%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
68.4%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+14
69.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 14 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
68.1%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+1
68.1%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
68.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+26
61.6%
Morgan Hagee 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 1:0264% → 76%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
64.0%
HARE, Drew pass complete to WIMANN, Shane for 6 yards to the NIU29 (PEYTON, Rontrel), PENALTY NIU illegal touching 5 yards to the NIU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+25
63.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 25 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
65.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+12
66.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 12 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
66.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 12 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
67.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 11 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
76.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 13 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
72.9%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Shawun Lurry return for 20 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:1276% → 81%
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
76.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Jordan Huff for 8 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.1%
Kenny Golladay run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.7%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
80.0%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
80.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Chris Shillings, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
81.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:2680% → 88%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
80.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 5 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+28
80.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 28 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
81.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+15
81.4%
HARE, Drew pass incomplete, PENALTY BALL pass interference (HOLDER, Tyree) 15 yards to the BALL23, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
81.6%
Jordan Huff run for 6 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
88.1%
Jordan Huff run for 17 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 1:4914% → 24%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
86.4%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
85.7%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+12
85.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
84.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
84.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Hogue, broken up by Anthony BrooksSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
85.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
84.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Marlon MooreSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
84.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 15 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Paris LoganSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
84.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 18 yds to the NoIll 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:1682% → 90%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
81.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
82.3%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
81.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
82.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 16 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
83.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 5 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
83.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+8
82.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 8 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
83.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
83.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
83.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 10 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
83.4%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+4
83.4%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.8%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4312% → 22%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
87.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 16 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
78.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 48 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:4382% → 85%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
82.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
83.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for 30 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Tommylee Lewis, broken up by Lamont McPhatterSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
84.9%
Christian Hagan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
83.9%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
84.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
83.4%
Darian Green run for 13 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
82.2%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
82.3%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
82.1%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
81.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-10
81.0%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to LACANARIA, C. for 10 yards to the NIU19 (MAYES, Brandon), PENALTY BALL holding (HARVEY, Jeremi.) 10 yards to the NIU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
82.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
83.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
84.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 4:5086% → 97%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
86.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+6
86.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
86.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Tommylee Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+12
86.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 12 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
86.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+18
86.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
87.5%
BOUAGNON, Joel rush for no gain to the NIU45 (POSLEY, Joshua), PENALTY NIU illegal cut (CONLON, Aidan) 15 yards to the NIU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+15
86.6%
Jordan Huff run for 15 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
87.3%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+19
86.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 19 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
87.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+15
87.5%
Jordan Huff run for 15 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
87.4%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
87.4%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.6%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 3:045% → 15%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.1%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
95.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
95.1%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jord., PENALTY NIU holding (LOGAN, Paris) 15 yards to the NIU39, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
95.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 10 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-2
94.6%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+11
95.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
94.7%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
94.4%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
94.4%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 5Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan Curry, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4889% → 98%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
89.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
50
+15
90.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
90.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-3
90.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+34
97.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 34 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Albert SmallsSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.9%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Marlon MooreSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Chad Beebe at the NoIll 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:4298% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
97.6%
Jordan Huff run for 19 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
97.7%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+5
97.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
97.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
97.6%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:230% → 2%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.7%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+10
99.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 10 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 13 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
98.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cywettnie Brown for 53 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1099% → 99%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
98.8%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+4
98.7%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
99.2%
Ryan Graham run for 11 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:57
Drew Hare run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q4 11:48
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 6:10
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 13 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com