Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 38 at Bowling Green 62

BGSU
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:57 · Logan Laurent punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense+34.4Score differential+29.9Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Blowout margin+15.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Shakur Nesmith 15 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick) — MASS win probability +4.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:09: Travis Greene 32 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:34: Donovan Wilson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:40: Fred Coppet 10 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:49: Travis Greene 12 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick) — BGSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 7:50MASS 4th & 3 at BGSU 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:50BGSU 4th & 7 at MASS 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:01MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 0:00BGSU 4th & 4 at MASS 19, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:52MASS 4th & 10 at BGSU 22, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:57MASS 4th & 3 at MASS 30, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:51BGSU 4th & 8 at MASS 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:39MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:29BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 26, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:11BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28MASS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:09BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:34BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:57MASS Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:40BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:33BGSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:18MASS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:49BGSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 3:57MASS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:02BGSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:15MASS Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4982% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Chris Gallon for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
82.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Chris Gallon for 5 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
82.1%
Travis Greene run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
82.1%
Travis Greene run for 15 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
82.1%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-1
82.1%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+17
82.1%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to DIETER, Gehrig, PENALTY UMASS pass interference 17 yards to the UMASS24, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
82.2%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the UMass 22Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+19
82.2%
Travis Greene run for 19 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.2%
Travis Greene run for no gain to the UMass 3Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.2%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the UMass 2Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.3%
Derek Lee 2 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:2118% → 19%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 13 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Sharif Custis for 3 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+16
81.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 16 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
81.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 4 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
81.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 10 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
81.7%
Marquis Young run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+10
81.8%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Nesmith, S., PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU12, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
81.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
81.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 7 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
81.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
80.6%
Logan Laurent 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
81.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 8 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
81.4%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
81.4%
GREENE, Travis rush for 2 yards to the 50 yardline (Seals, T.;Santos-Knox, J.), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+7
81.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+6
81.2%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
81.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Kelton BrackettSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
81.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trey Dudley-Giles at the UMass 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 4:2920% → 25%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+22
80.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 22 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
80.0%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by James Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+3
80.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 3 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+17
80.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 17 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
79.7%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Terrance Bush for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 47Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 13
50
+3
80.3%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Blake Frohnapfel pass complete Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Sharif Custis for 14 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 13
50
+14
80.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Sharif Custis for 14 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
79.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 10 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
79.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Andrew Libby for 10 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
79.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 3 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
79.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.1%
Shakur Nesmith 15 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 1:2176% → 79%
Q1 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+4
76.1%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
76.0%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
76.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
76.3%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
76.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+71
78.8%
Ronnie Moore 71 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6INT
15 plays · 63 yds · 2:5622% → 23%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
78.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
78.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills, broken up by Austin Valdez Blake Frohnapfel pass completeSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
78.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 8 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
78.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney Mills Blake Frohnapfel pass completeSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
78.1%
Marquis Young run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marquis YoungSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
77.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken Michel, broken up by Dernard TurnerSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+14
77.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 14 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST down Blake Frohnapfel pass complete Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 14 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST down Blake Frohnapfel pass complete Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 14 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST down to Jamal Wilson for 14 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
77.0%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by James Sanford for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+30
77.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 21 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
76.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+22
77.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass intercepted Alfonso Mack return for 22 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:3879% → 85%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
78.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
78.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 10 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
79.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Derek Lee for 7 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+16
79.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 16 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
84.7%
Travis Greene 32 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
83.7%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 21Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 15
OWN 21
-11
83.8%
Frohnapfel, B. pass complete to Sharpe, T. for 19 yards to the UMASS40 (MACK, Alfonso), PENALTY UMASS personal foul 11 yards to the UMASS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 26
OWN 10
+6
83.8%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 20
OWN 16
+17
84.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Marken Michel for 17 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
83.8%
Logan Laurent punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:4284% → 91%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.9%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger LewisSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
83.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 5
50
-10
84.7%
JOHNSON, Matt pass complete to GREENE, Travis for 4 yards to the UMASS46 (Dudley-Giles, T), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+5
84.2%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+23
84.5%
Matt Johnson run for 8 yds to the BOWLGREEN 47 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
84.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 15 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
86.1%
Travis Greene run for 8 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+7
86.1%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.3%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the UMass 1Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Donovan Wilson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 1:3211% → 16%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
89.4%
Frohnapfel, B. pass incomplete to Sharpe, T., PENALTY BGSU personal foul 15 yards to the UMASS34, 1ST DOWN UMASS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
88.9%
Jamal Wilson run for 1 yd to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
89.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
89.5%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
50
+15
88.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Shakur Nesmith for 15 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
87.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 12 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
84.0%
Tajae Sharpe 23 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT
14 plays · 39 yds · 2:0886% → 87%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
86.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for no gain to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
86.1%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+10
85.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 10 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
86.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 11 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
86.8%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Roger Lewis, broken up by Randall JetteSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
86.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 11 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.9%
Matt Johnson run for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-10
86.9%
JOHNSON, Matt pass complete to GREENE, Travis for 18 yards to the UMASS25, PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 18
OWN 47
+21
86.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 21 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
87.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 5 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-15
87.2%
JOHNSON, Matt pass complete to LEWIS, Roger for 3 yards to the UMASS24 (Moses, L.;Lucier, J.), PENALTY BGSU personal foul 15 yards to the UMASS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+2
86.6%
Matt Johnson pass intercepted Kelton Brackett return for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
86.2%
Sekai Lindsay run for 8 yds to the UMass 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
84.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken Michel, broken up by Zach ColvinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
85.0%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 6 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
84.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 6 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
84.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jamal Wilson for 3 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
84.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:4987% → 94%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
86.5%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
86.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 2 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+9
86.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 9 yds to the UMass 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
86.5%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
86.5%
Matt Johnson run for 4 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+6
86.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Derek Lee for 6 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
94.3%
Fred Coppet 10 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.6%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the UMass 30 Marquis Young fumbled, forced by Nate Locke, recovered by BwGrn Nilijah BallewSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:5994% → 98%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
94.4%
Matt Johnson sacked by Kassan Messiah for a loss of 10 yards to the UMass 40Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 20
OPP 40
0
94.3%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+40
98.3%
Ryan Burbrink 40 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2995% → 99%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.5%
JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY UMASS pass interference 15 yards to the BGSU40, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
94.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 24 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
94.8%
Matt Johnson sacked by Kassan Messiah for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 40Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+12
94.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Travis Greene for 12 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+6
94.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 6 yds to the UMass 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
94.9%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
94.9%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the UMass 16Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
94.8%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.9%
Travis Greene 12 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:522% → 6%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
97.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 6 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
97.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 29 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+24
97.7%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Rodney Mills for 24 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.6%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae Sharpe, broken up by James SanfordSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-10
97.6%
Frohnapfel, B. pass complete to Nesmith, S. for 6 yards to the BGSU5, out-of-bounds (STEPHENS, Clint), PENALTY UMASS holding 10 yards to the BGSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+21
93.7%
Marken Michel 21 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5796% → 98%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.6%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
95.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 16 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
95.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 10 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
95.8%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
95.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+8
95.7%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
95.8%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
95.8%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the UMass 17Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-2
95.7%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
98.4%
Tyler Tate 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken MichelSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
98.4%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 15 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.3%
Blake Frohnapfel run for 5 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+30
98.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 10 yds to the BOWLGREEN 42 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (20 Yards) to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.1%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
98.2%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Rodney MillsSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
98.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Tajae SharpeSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 22
0
98.3%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Shakur NesmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:3999% → 100%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
98.7%
Travis Greene run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.7%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+68
99.8%
Roger Lewis 68 Yd pass from Matt Johnson (Tyler Tate Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
99.9%
Blake Frohnapfel sacked by Zach Colvin for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 21Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+9
99.9%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Tajae Sharpe for 9 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Blake Frohnapfel pass incomplete to Marken Michel, broken up by Bryan BairdSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Logan Laurent punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:14100% → 100%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.8%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+2
99.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.8%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+43
99.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Teo Redding for 43 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.8%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-5
99.8%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 15Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
James Knapke run for 5 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
99.9%
Tyler Tate 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Ross Comis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Lorenzo Woodley for 7 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-1
99.9%
Ross Comis sacked by Nilijah Ballew for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Logan Laurent punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Burbrink at the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
99.9%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Herve CobySimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 45 yds , Jaurice Jones returns for 1 yd to the UMass 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:390% → 1%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+45
99.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Elgin Long for 45 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Ross Comis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.3%
Dan Jonah 25 Yd pass from Ross Comis (Logan Laurent Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
99.8%
KNAPKE, James pass complete to COBY, Herve for 4 yards to the BGSU22 (Richard, A.), PENALTY BGSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BGSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+13
99.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Scott Miller for 13 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.8%
James Knapke pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
99.8%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:40
Fred Coppet 10 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)
+8.3
TD · Q2 10:09
Travis Greene 32 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)
+5
TD · Q2 4:34
Donovan Wilson 1 Yd Run (Tyler Tate Kick)
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com