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KENT

Kent State 7 at Toledo 38

TOL
2015 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2015 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreKENT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:09 · Marc Remy run for 6 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior+25.4Home team on offense+4.9Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:44: Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:51: Terry Swanson run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:44: Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +7.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:30: Phillip Ely pass complete to Darryl Richards for 14 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST down — TOL win probability +3.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:48: Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +3.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 14:21TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 38, tied
    Close callWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49TOL 4th & 5 at KENT 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:49KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:36TOL 4th & 6 at KENT 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:52KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:39KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:12TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:09KENT 4th & 7 at TOL 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:09TOL 4th & 4 at KENT 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:49TOL 4th & 6 at KENT 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:49KENT 4th & 9 at TOL 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:39KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:56KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:53TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:33KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:26TOL 4th & 4 at KENT 41, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 39, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:09KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 38, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:22TOL 4th & 19 at KENT 19, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    100.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:44TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:51TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:44TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:48TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:13TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -38 yds · 0:2486% → 86%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete, broken up by James AlexanderSimilar
Q1 14:21
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
85.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 38 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by KntSt Ryan Seibert for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:2686% → 85%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
85.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
50
0
85.9%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
50
+20
85.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 20 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.9%
Phillip Ely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
85.9%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+2
85.9%
Phillip Ely run for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
84.7%
Jameson Vest 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
84.6%
Raekwon James run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+16
84.7%
Raekwon James run for 16 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
84.5%
JAMES, Raekwon rush for 26 yards to the TOLEDO36 (MURDOCK, Chase;ROGERS, DeJuan), PENALTY KENT holding (SCOTT, Wayne) 10 yards to the KENT28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+4
84.6%
Trayion Durham run for 4 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+2
84.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 2 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
84.7%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
84.7%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
83.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+5
83.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+25
83.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 25 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
83.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
83.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
83.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
82.4%
Trayion Durham run for 14 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.3%
Trayion Durham run for 1 yd to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Antwan DixonSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+8
82.5%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 8 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:2381% → 84%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
81.4%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
81.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
81.6%
Phillip Ely run for 7 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
82.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Darryl Richards for 26 yds to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
82.3%
ELY, Phillip pass incomplete to RICHARDS, D. (MONDAY, D.), PENALTY KENT offside (WAUGH, Terence) 5 yards to the KENT16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 5
OPP 16
+4
82.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the KntSt 12Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+9
82.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 6 yds to the KntSt 6 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Demetrius Monday) to the KntSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.4%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Antwan DixonSimilar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.4%
Trayion Durham run for 1 yd to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
82.6%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 20Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
82.7%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 14
OWN 20
-2
82.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 49 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
82.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
82.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
82.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
81.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 55 yds , Raekwon James returns for no gain to the KntSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:3619% → 19%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
81.0%
Colin Reardon sacked by Keenen Gibbs for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+15
80.8%
Antwan Dixon run for 15 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
80.7%
Trayion Durham run for 3 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
80.5%
Trayion Durham run for 1 yd to the KntSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
80.9%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+4
81.3%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 39 yds , Corey Jones returns for 4 yds to the Toled 34 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4181% → 85%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
80.8%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
81.7%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+18
81.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 3 yds to the TOLEDO 49 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Nate Holley) to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
82.1%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
82.1%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
85.0%
Terry Swanson run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:3516% → 17%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
83.7%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Raekwon James for 1 yd to the KntSt 27Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-1
83.7%
Raekwon James run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+46
84.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Raekwon James for 46 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
82.0%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
82.1%
Trayion Durham run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
82.7%
Colin Reardon pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
83.0%
Shane Hynes 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:2084% → 85%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
83.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 35 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
84.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
84.8%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
84.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Phillip Ely) to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+7
84.1%
Marc Remy run for 7 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+6
83.9%
Marc Remy run for 6 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.2%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
85.2%
Phillip Ely run for 4 yds to the KntSt 24Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
84.5%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Alonzo RussellSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
84.5%
Jameson Vest 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
84.3%
George Bollas run for 11 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
83.9%
Trayion Durham run for 3 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
83.7%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 4 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
83.5%
George Bollas run for 5 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
83.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 18 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
82.9%
Trayion Durham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+2
83.0%
Raekwon James run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
83.2%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Ernest CalhounSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
83.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Alonzo Russell at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:3685% → 92%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+88
84.8%
Terry Swanson run for 88 yds to the KntSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
90.3%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 22Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+9
90.5%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for 9 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+1
90.1%
Ernest Calhoun run for 1 yd to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+12
90.2%
George Bollas pass complete to Johnny Woods for 12 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.7%
George Bollas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
90.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Johnny WoodsSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
90.2%
George Bollas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
90.7%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 34 yds, downed at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
91.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
91.2%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Johnny WoodsSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.3%
Trayion Durham run for 1 yd to the KntSt 27Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
91.4%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Johnny WoodsSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+5
91.5%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 21 , Corey Jones returns for 5 yds to the Toled 32 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Connery Swift) to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
91.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
91.6%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Delando JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
91.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+7
90.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 53 yds , Raekwon James returns for 7 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19INT
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:008% → 10%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
91.6%
Raekwon James run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 30Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
92.2%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Raekwon James, broken up by Chase Murdock KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+23
92.2%
George Bollas run for 23 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
91.0%
George Bollas run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
90.8%
George Bollas pass complete to Brice Fackler for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
90.9%
Raekwon James run for 1 yd to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.0%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Zaquon Tyson, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
91.1%
BOLLAS, George pass incomplete to JAMES, Raekwon, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (COLEMAN, Jaylen) 9 yards to the TOLEDO28, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
90.3%
George Bollas pass intercepted, touchback. Rolan Milligan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4294% → 98%
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+14
94.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Darryl Richards for 14 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
93.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 11 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
93.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 22 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
94.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+7
94.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 7 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
94.0%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 1 yd to the KntSt 31Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+15
94.0%
ELY, Phillip pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY KENT roughing passer (MILLER, Clay) 15 yards to the KENT16, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
94.0%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 15Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 2:113% → 2%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
97.1%
Trayion Durham run for 3 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
97.1%
DURHAM, Trayion rush for 8 yards to the KENT40, out-of-bounds (WOODLEY,Ja'Wuan), PENALTY KENT holding (REDA, Reno) 10 yards to the KENT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 17
OWN 22
0
97.2%
George Bollas run for no gain to the KntSt 22Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+2
97.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 2 yds to the KntSt 24Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
98.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 8 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
98.7%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
98.7%
Corey Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
98.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 8 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-2
98.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
98.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kareem HuntSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
98.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 32 yds, downed at the KntSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:302% → 2%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
98.5%
Trayion Durham run for no gain to the KntSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
98.5%
P.J. Simmons run for 7 yds to the KntSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+15
98.5%
George Bollas pass complete to P.J. Simmons for 15 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
98.3%
Trayion Durham run for 3 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
98.3%
George Bollas pass incomplete to Connor ArliaSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
98.4%
George Bollas pass complete to Charles Chandler for 5 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+48
98.4%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 47 yds , Corey Jones returns for 48 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2999% → 100%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 14 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
99.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+8
99.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the KntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the KntSt 5Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
99.3%
ELY, Phillip pass complete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea for no gain to the KENT5 (DELLINGER, Matt), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (ZMOLIK, Alex) 10 yards to the KENT15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
99.3%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 8 yds to the KntSt 7Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
99.9%
Raekwon James run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 23Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+10
99.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Raekwon James for 10 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Raekwon James run for 3 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
George Bollas run for 3 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
99.9%
George Bollas pass complete to P.J. Simmons for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 38Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
99.9%
George Bollas pass incomplete to P.J. Simmons, broken up by Josh TeacheySimilar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Anthony Melchiori punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 7:02100% → 100%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 4 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+12
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 12 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Chaz Whittaker) to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+25
99.9%
Michael Julian pass complete to Andrew Davis for 25 yds to the TOLEDO 31 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+16
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 16 yds to the KntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the KntSt 7Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
99.9%
REMY, Marc rush for 2 yards to the KENT5 (ITALIANO, J.), PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (PERSCHON, Paul) 15 yards to the KENT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 2 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
Marc Remy run for 1 yd to the KntSt 19Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
99.9%
Jameson Vest 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Miles Hibbler run for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:44
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+7.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:30
Phillip Ely pass complete to Darryl Richards for 14 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST down
+3.8
TD · Q3 6:48
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com