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BGSU

Bowling Green 28 at Buffalo 22

BUF
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+18.2BUF 30.8%Joe Licata pass complete to RonWilloughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLINGGREEN Penalty, Defensive passinterference ( Yards) declined, (AdamMitcheson PAT MISSED)AWAY 28 - HOME 22 · Q4 5:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:13 · Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 189Home team on offense−9.7Pregame prior−1.6Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−8.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:08: Matt Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:54: Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Ronnie Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:42: Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:13: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +18.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:32BUF 4th & 2 at BGSU 12, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−2.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:26BGSU 4th & 4 at BUF 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 24 at BUF 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:17BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 26, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:04BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 22, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:18BUF 4th & 8 at BGSU 20, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:25BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 9, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−2.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−7.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:22BUF 4th & 8 at BGSU 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:39BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 29, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:41BUF 4th & 10 at BGSU 10, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−7.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−2.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    -1.3%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:42BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 1, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:36BGSU 4th & 9 at BUF 38, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 0 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:36BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:08BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:54BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54BGSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:42BUF Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:13BUF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    20.0%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:2468% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 7 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
31.7%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+13
31.7%
Travis Greene run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
31.7%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
31.7%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+37
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 37 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
31.7%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
31.7%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
31.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:0432% → 35%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
32.2%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
32.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 12 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
32.5%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
32.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
32.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
32.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
32.7%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
32.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
32.7%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
32.7%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
32.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
34.6%
Adam Mitcheson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
18 plays · 30 yds · 5:2666% → 64%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
34.2%
Matt Johnson sacked by Max Perisse for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
34.3%
Travis Greene run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
33.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 10 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
33.6%
Matt Johnson sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 42 Matt Johnson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+14
34.0%
Travis Greene run for 14 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+1
33.5%
Travis Greene run for 1 yd to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
33.5%
Ronnie Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-5
33.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+6
33.9%
Matt Johnson sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 46 Matt Johnson fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Matt Johnson , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+9
34.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 9 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+6
34.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 6 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
33.1%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
33.2%
Matt Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 23 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (Gehrig Dieter) to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-2
33.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-10
34.6%
Matt Johnson sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 24
OPP 45
0
35.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
35.2%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 19 yards to the UB38 (LOCKE, Nate), PENALTY UB holding (KLING, John) 9 yards to the UB10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 19
OWN 10
-2
35.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 21
OWN 8
0
34.7%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 21
OWN 8
+18
34.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 18 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
34.3%
Tyler Grassman punt for 46 yds, downed at the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4265% → 73%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
34.9%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+61
35.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 61 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
27.2%
Matt Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
28.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-2
28.7%
Anthone Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
28.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 5 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
28.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 50 yds, downed at the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:0572% → 82%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
27.9%
Travis Greene run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+15
27.6%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to LEWIS, Roger, QB hurry by HARRIS, Demone, PENALTY UB roughing passer (HARRIS, Demone) 15 yards to the BGSU48, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
27.1%
Matt Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
27.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 18 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+22
27.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 22 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
17.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8DOWNS
16 plays · 60 yds · 3:3121% → 20%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.3%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
21.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
21.9%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
21.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
22.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
22.6%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
22.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
23.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
23.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
23.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
23.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
23.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt Weiser, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 20
0
20.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin Lisa, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:4884% → 85%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
16.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 8 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+54
16.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 54 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
14.6%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+6
14.6%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
14.9%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
14.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan Burbrink, broken up by Nick GilboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FG
18 plays · 79 yds · 2:0023% → 26%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
22.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 12 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
22.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 16 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
23.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
19.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
24.3%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
24.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
24.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 16 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-14
24.9%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass complete to MCGILL, Marcus for 24 yards to the BGSU0, clock 01:06, PENALTY UB pass interference (MCGILL, Marcus) 14 yards to the BGSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 24
OPP 38
0
24.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 24
OPP 38
+15
24.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nilijah Ballew) to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
24.9%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
25.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 10 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
24.9%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
25.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 2 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
24.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
25.7%
Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:1882% → 84%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
18.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 11 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
17.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
16.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+54
15.6%
Tyler Tate 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12INT
14 plays · 62 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
20.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
20.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
21.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
21.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
22.2%
Joe Licata run for 1 yd to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
22.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
22.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
22.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
22.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+9
22.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
22.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
22.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
22.3%
Joe Licata pass intercepted, touchback. James Sanford return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
14.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
14.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-2
15.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 57 yds , Collin Lisa returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 5:3516% → 20%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
16.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+6
16.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 6 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
16.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone Taylor, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
16.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+11
16.4%
Joe Licata run for 11 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
17.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 23 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
18.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+10
19.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
19.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Brandon Manosalvas) to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+8
19.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
19.6%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+7
18.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron WilloughbySimilar
Q3 8:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt WeiserSimilar
Q3 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
19.7%
Adam Mitcheson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 2:4283% → 96%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
16.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
16.4%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
16.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 4 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
16.5%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+36
16.1%
Fred Coppet run for 36 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
14.6%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 2
OPP 24
0
14.5%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+12
14.8%
Fred Coppet run for 12 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
14.5%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
14.5%
Matt Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
3.7%
Ronnie Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
18 plays · 92 yds · 6:057% → 14%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
7.1%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+9
7.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+4
7.4%
Joe Licata run for 4 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
7.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 24 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, roughing passer (Zach Colvin) to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
8.3%
Joe Licata sacked by Shannon Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+7
7.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+11
8.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for no gain to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
8.8%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+4
8.8%
Joe Licata run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 15 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.4%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.5%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.3%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
7.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 20 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
7.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-2
7.2%
Travis Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
7.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-5
8.7%
[SGUN], PENALTY BGSU delay of game 5 yards to the UB38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
8.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan BurbrinkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:169% → 31%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
8.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
9.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
9.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+8
10.5%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
10.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 17 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
12.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 14 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19END OF GAME
14 plays · 52 yds · 1:5982% → 91%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.6%
Travis Greene run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
16.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Roger Lewis) to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
18.4%
Travis Greene run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
12.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
10.8%
Matt Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
11.0%
Travis Greene run for 29 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
9.2%
Travis Greene run for 7 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
8.9%
Travis Greene run for 4 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
8.9%
Travis Greene run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-1
8.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:13
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)
+18.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Ronnie Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 7:54
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com