2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:22 · Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:08: Matt Johnson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:54: Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: Ronnie Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK) — BGSU win probability +10.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:42: Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +8.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:13: Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +18.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 5:32BUF 4th & 2 at BGSU 12, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snapGo for it35.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call35.2%−0.386% to makePunt33.4%−2.1average punt
- Q1 5:26BGSU 4th & 4 at BUF 37, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.5%48% to convertField goal62.9%−0.540% to makePunt62.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 24 at BUF 45, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snapGo for it60.7%−1.37% to convertField goal61.3%−0.725% to makePuntTheir call62.0%average punt
- Q2 14:17BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 26, down 4Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it37.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:04BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 22, down 11Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 4:18BUF 4th & 8 at BGSU 20, down 18Close callWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%−0.732% to convertField goal21.8%75% to makePunt17.0%−4.7average punt
- Q2 2:25BGSU 4th & 1 at BUF 9, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.6%71% to convertField goal81.4%−2.289% to makePunt76.6%−7.1average punt
- Q2 0:22BUF 4th & 8 at BGSU 11, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snapGo for it18.2%−1.129% to convertField goalTheir call19.3%87% to makePunt15.1%−4.2average punt
- Q3 9:39BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 29, up 15Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 84.1% before the snapGo for it85.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.5%−2.3average punt
- Q3 2:41BUF 4th & 10 at BGSU 10, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snapGo for it14.3%−1.224% to convertField goalTheir call15.5%88% to makePunt8.4%−7.0average punt
- Q4 14:47BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 20, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%71% to convertField goal6.5%−2.475% to makePunt-1.3%−10.2average punt
- Q4 8:42BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 1, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.5%59% to convertField goal4.2%−1.394% to makePunt0.2%−5.3average punt
- Q4 8:36BGSU 4th & 9 at BUF 38, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.8%32% to convertField goal90.5%−0.238% to makePunt90.5%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 0 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:36BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.5%97% to makeGo for two64.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:08BGSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:54BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54BGSU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:42BUF Touchdown, down 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call8.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two8.6%45% to convert
- Q4 5:13BUF Touchdown, down 6 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · missedKickTheir call20.0%−1.597% to makeGo for two21.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD12 plays · 85 yds · 4:2468% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 7 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+37
31.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 37 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG13 plays · 53 yds · 5:0432% → 35%
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
32.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
32.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
32.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
32.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 7 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT18 plays · 30 yds · 5:2666% → 64%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
34.2%
Matt Johnson sacked by Max Perisse for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
33.9%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 10 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
33.6%
Matt Johnson sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 42 Matt Johnson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 16
OPP 49
+6
33.9%
Matt Johnson sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 46 Matt Johnson fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Matt Johnson , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+9
34.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 9 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+6
34.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 6 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
33.2%
Matt Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 23 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal block (Gehrig Dieter) to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 12
OPP 33
-2
33.3%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-10
34.6%
Matt Johnson sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 24
OPP 45
0
35.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
35.2%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 19 yards to the UB38 (LOCKE, Nate), PENALTY UB holding (KLING, John) 9 yards to the UB10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 19
OWN 10
-2
35.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Devin Campbell for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 21
OWN 8
+18
34.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 18 yds to the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4265% → 73%
Q2 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+61
35.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 61 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
28.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD7 plays · 72 yds · 1:0572% → 82%
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+15
27.6%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Matt pass incomplete to LEWIS, Roger, QB hurry by HARRIS, Demone, PENALTY UB roughing passer (HARRIS, Demone) 15 yards to the BGSU48, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
27.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ryan Burbrink for 18 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.0%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+22
27.0%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 22 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
17.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8DOWNS16 plays · 60 yds · 3:3121% → 20%
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
21.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+14
22.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 14 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
23.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt Weiser, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 20
0
20.0%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin Lisa, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 71 yds · 1:4884% → 85%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
16.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 8 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+54
16.1%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 54 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
14.7%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan Burbrink, broken up by Nick GilboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FG18 plays · 79 yds · 2:0023% → 26%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
22.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 12 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
22.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 16 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
24.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 11 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
24.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 16 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-14
24.9%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass complete to MCGILL, Marcus for 24 yards to the BGSU0, clock 01:06, PENALTY UB pass interference (MCGILL, Marcus) 14 yards to the BGSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 24
OPP 38
+15
24.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nilijah Ballew) to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
25.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 10 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
25.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 2 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11MISSED FG5 plays · 30 yds · 0:1882% → 84%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
18.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 11 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
17.2%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 13 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
16.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12INT14 plays · 62 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
20.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 12 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+9
22.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
22.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
22.3%
Joe Licata pass intercepted, touchback. James Sanford return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
14.5%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Matt Johnson pass incomplete to Gehrig Dieter, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
14.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-2
15.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 57 yds , Collin Lisa returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG17 plays · 78 yds · 5:3516% → 20%
Q3 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+6
16.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 6 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
16.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Anthone Taylor, broken up by Austin ValdezSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
17.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 23 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
19.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Brandon Manosalvas) to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+7
18.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby, broken up by Clint StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15TD12 plays · 94 yds · 2:4283% → 96%
BUFDrive 16TD18 plays · 92 yds · 6:057% → 14%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+39
7.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 24 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, roughing passer (Zach Colvin) to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
8.3%
Joe Licata sacked by Shannon Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+7
7.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+11
8.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 11 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 9 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for no gain to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
9.0%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 15 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
7.6%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 20 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
7.4%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
7.8%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD7 plays · 62 yds · 1:169% → 31%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
8.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Anthone Taylor for 7 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
9.7%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 6 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
9.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
10.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 17 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
12.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 14 yds to the BwGrn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
30.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19END OF GAME14 plays · 52 yds · 1:5982% → 91%
Q4 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
16.7%
Matt Johnson pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Roger Lewis) to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:13
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 5 yds for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)
+18.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Ronnie Moore run for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 7:54
Matt Johnson pass complete to Roger Lewis for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Tate KICK)
-9.5