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TOL

Toledo 24 at Ball State 10

BALL
2015 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2015 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:33 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 48 , Corey Jones returns for 24 yds to the Toled 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−29.6Pregame prior−10.8Score differential−16.0Garbage-time factor−7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:36: Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:02: Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 38 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +4.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:52: Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the Toled 47 TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Ruben Carter) to the Toled 32 — TOL win probability +5.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:12: Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 51 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +9.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:12: Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 25 — TOL win probability +4.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 14:22BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24BALL 4th & 18 at TOL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:55BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:15TOL 4th & 1 at BALL 13, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%−1.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54BALL 4th & 3 at TOL 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:52TOL 4th & 26 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:33BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:37TOL 4th & 14 at BALL 29, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:12TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:57BALL 4th & 1 at TOL 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:34BALL 4th & 19 at TOL 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:47TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:36TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:02TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:12BALL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
22.9%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Tyree Holder return for no gain to the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
23.2%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
23.3%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-8
23.2%
Riley Neal sacked by Tre James for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 14:22
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+16
23.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 45 yds , Corey Jones returns for 16 yds to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
24.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 22 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
23.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-5
23.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Storm Norton) to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
24.1%
Phillip Ely pass intercepted Terin Solomon return for no gain to the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.8%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
24.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
24.9%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
25.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
25.0%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+9
24.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+5
25.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
25.1%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-1
25.1%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-13
25.0%
Riley Neal sacked by Trent Voss for a loss of 13 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
24.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 37 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
27.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
27.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for no gain to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+6
27.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for 6 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
27.7%
Nick Ellis punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
29.3%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
29.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
29.1%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Toled 31 Riley Neal fumbled, forced by DeJuan Rogers, recovered by Toled Keenen GibbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:2872% → 76%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
28.4%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+16
28.0%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
27.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Cody Thompson) to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+5
28.2%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
27.7%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
27.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
27.2%
Phillip Ely run for 3 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
28.6%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
28.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the BalSt 25 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Toled Terry SwansonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+4
28.8%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+17
28.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
28.1%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Michael Roberts for 3 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
26.0%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
26.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+7
25.5%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
26.1%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
26.1%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
25.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4674% → 82%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
25.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 11 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
24.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
24.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Kishon Wilcher for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+7
24.8%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
24.6%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
24.4%
Terry Swanson run for 16 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
24.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.1%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3419% → 20%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
19.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
19.3%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
19.6%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
19.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:3481% → 85%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
18.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 10 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
18.7%
Marc Remy run for 41 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
18.1%
Marc Remy run for 5 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
18.1%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
18.3%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+31
15.1%
Jameson Vest 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Damion Jones-MooreSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
16.7%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
16.6%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-3
16.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 44 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1286% → 91%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
14.1%
Marc Remy run for 7 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+21
13.6%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 21 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
13.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+38
9.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 38 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:5611% → 13%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
10.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 9 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+22
11.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Richard Olekanma) to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
11.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
11.0%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HOGUE, Jordan, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (MATHIS, Trevon) 15 yards to the TOLEDO27, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
11.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
11.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+15
11.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 15 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+29
12.9%
Morgan Hagee 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
11.0%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
10.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+8
10.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 8 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
11.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+8
12.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+14
12.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 14 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
12.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Cheatham NorrilsSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
12.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 7 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
12.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan Curry, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 21
-5
12.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BalSt James GilbertSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
15 plays · 11 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
6.7%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the Toled 47 TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Ruben Carter) to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 17
OWN 32
+7
7.1%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
6.8%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
6.9%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alonzo Russell for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
7.2%
REMY, Marc rush for 1 yard to the TOLEDO49 (AYERS, Michael), PENALTY BALL substitution infraction (SOLOMON, Terin) 5 yards to the BALL47, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
6.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
6.7%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+12
6.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
6.6%
Marc Remy run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
6.4%
Phillip Ely run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-15
6.7%
ELY, Phillip pass complete to JONES, Corey for 9 yards to the BALL21 (AYERS, Michael;THURMON, Kevin), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal block (NORTON, Storm) 15 yards to the BALL45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 21
OPP 45
+5
6.8%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 16
OPP 40
-5
7.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Trent Voss) to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 21
OPP 45
-5
7.3%
ELLIS, Nick punt 41 yards to the BALL4, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 26
50
0
7.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
6.7%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 7Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+9
6.7%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
6.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 16Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 2
OWN 16
+5
6.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Marcus Whitfield) to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
6.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
7.4%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
7.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-13
7.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 2 yds to the BalSt 45 BALL ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Williams) to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 16
OWN 30
-7
6.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 23Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 23
OWN 23
+11
6.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+24
6.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 48 , Corey Jones returns for 24 yds to the Toled 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:0198% → 98%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
2.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+8
2.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
2.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
2.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+5
2.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Alex Zmolik for 5 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
2.2%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
2.2%
JONES-MOORE, D. rush for 6 yards to the BALL19 (INGLE, Ben), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (CARTER, Ruben) 10 yards to the BALL35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+2
2.2%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+4
2.2%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Marc Remy for 4 yds to the BalSt 29 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 14
OPP 29
0
1.7%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by Jake McphatterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:173% → 13%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
2.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
2.6%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+19
2.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 19 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
12.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 51 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
6.0%
ELY, Phillip pass complete to JONES, Corey for 11 yards to the TOLEDO44, out-of-bounds (HOLDER, Tyree), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
6.0%
Phillip Ely pass incomplete to Kishon WilcherSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
6.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds , Jordan Hogue returns for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21MISSED FG
16 plays · 47 yds · 3:548% → 6%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
7.8%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
7.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
8.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Chase Murdock) to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
8.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 5 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
8.9%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to LACANARIA, C. (ROGERS, DeJuan), PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (JONES, Orion) 15 yards to the TOLEDO34, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Cheatham NorrilsSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
9.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
9.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 9 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
7.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
7.9%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jord. (NORRILS, C.), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (NORRILS, C.) 15 yards to the TOLEDO8, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
7.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Dylan Curry, broken up by Allen CovingtonSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
7.0%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to WILLIAMS, Jord. for 4 yards to the TOLEDO0, clock 05:45, PENALTY BALL pass interference (CURRY, Dylan) 15 yards to the TOLEDO19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
5.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+35
5.6%
Morgan Hagee 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22END OF GAME
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:1397% → 99%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
2.7%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
2.7%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
2.5%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
2.6%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
2.5%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
2.4%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
1.4%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
1.5%
Phillip Ely pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
1.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
1.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
1.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:12
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 51 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 7:36
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-6.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:52
Damion Jones-Moore run for 8 yds to the Toled 47 TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Ruben Carter) to the Toled 32
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com