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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:46 · Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:41: Daz'mond Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK) — OHIO win probability +6.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:16: Robert Stein 41 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +5.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 3:55: Robert Stein 30 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +8.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:55: Derrius Vick pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 39 — OHIO win probability +13.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:09: AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 18 for a 1ST down — OHIO win probability +20.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 15:00OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 29, tiedClose callPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it59.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:57AKR 4th & 14 at OHIO 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snapGo for it42.6%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call42.9%72% to makePunt41.9%−1.1average punt
- Q1 4:27AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.9%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.2%average punt
- Q2 10:30AKR 4th & 8 at OHIO 37, down 11Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it35.1%35% to convertField goal34.8%−0.340% to makePuntTheir call34.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:32OHIO 4th & 6 at AKR 37, up 11Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snapGo for it66.4%40% to convertField goal65.8%−0.640% to makePuntTheir call65.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 7:21AKR 4th & 9 at OHIO 37, down 11Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snapGo for it32.5%32% to convertField goal32.4%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call32.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:01OHIO 4th & 19 at OHIO 17, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it65.0%−2.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q2 2:13AKR 4th & 1 at OHIO 37, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.1%70% to convertField goal29.4%−1.840% to makePunt28.9%−2.3average punt
- Q2 0:03AKR 4th & 4 at OHIO 16, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.7%46% to convertField goalTheir call29.4%−0.381% to makePunt23.8%−5.9average punt
- Q3 10:55AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 33, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snapGo for it28.8%−2.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q3 8:26OHIO 4th & 10 at AKR 47, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snapGo for it71.2%−1.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.2%average punt
- Q3 0:16AKR 4th & 16 at OHIO 24, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snapGo for it20.7%−3.115% to convertField goalTheir call23.8%68% to makePunt14.5%−9.3average punt
- Q4 15:00OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 39, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it67.0%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q4 11:44AKR 4th & 7 at OHIO 49, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it34.6%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q4 8:46OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 10, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snapGo for it62.8%−6.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q4 7:11AKR 4th & 6 at OHIO 34, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.1%40% to convertField goal30.9%−0.247% to makePunt26.3%−4.8average punt
- Q4 3:55AKR 4th & 9 at OHIO 13, down 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snapGo for it23.9%−4.428% to convertField goalTheir call28.3%85% to makePunt14.4%−13.8average punt
- Q4 3:55OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 35, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it62.0%−6.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q4 1:37AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 33, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt21.5%−7.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:27OHIO Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.7%97% to makeGo for two57.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:41OHIO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.6%97% to makeGo for two64.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
34.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 6 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FG13 plays · 48 yds · 6:0635% → 38%
Q1 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
34.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 8 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
34.8%
WOODSON, T. pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, PENALTY OHIO pass interference 15 yards to the OHIO30, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+6
34.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 6 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
34.8%
Conor Hundley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 23 Tyrell GoodmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2262% → 65%
Q1 7:49
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
38.1%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Papi White for 15 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
37.6%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 12 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
35.4%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Keith Heitzman for 24 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
36.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Michael Means Jr. for 3 yds to the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD13 plays · 57 yds · 5:3064% → 71%
Q1 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
36.2%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 12 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
36.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for 9 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
35.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Kawmae Sawyer for 6 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+8
35.7%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 3 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (5 Yards) to the Akron 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
35.7%
VICK, Derrius sacked for loss of 7 yards to the AKRON16 (MARCUS, Jamal), PENALTY AKRON face mask 5 yards to the AKRON4, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.5%
Daz'mond Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Josiah Yazdani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 2:0331% → 31%
Q2 12:33
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+37
30.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 22 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
32.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 7 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-5
32.6%
HUNDLEY, Conor rush for 2 yards to the OHIO30 (CROUTCH, Evan), PENALTY AKRON illegal motion 5 yards to the OHIO37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT9 plays · 43 yds · 1:5170% → 70%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
29.9%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Papi White for 8 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
28.8%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 11 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
28.7%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 4 yds to the Akron 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 43 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
28.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 42 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT11 plays · 12 yds · 2:1971% → 70%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
29.4%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Herman Brunis for 9 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+11
29.5%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Brendan Cope for 11 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
28.8%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Rodney CoeSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-7
29.1%
Derrius Vick run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 17 Derrius Vick fumbled, recovered by Ohio Derrius VickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10FG12 plays · 30 yds · 2:1030% → 32%
Q2 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
30.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 5 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
30.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Tyrell Goodman, broken up by Ian WellsSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+12
30.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 12 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+6
28.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 6 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12INT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
29.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 13 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
30.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Imani Davis, broken up by Devin JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
29.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 5 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
30.0%
Thomas Woodson sacked by Trent Smart for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+16
29.2%
Thomas Woodson pass intercepted Quentin Poling return for 16 yds to the Akron 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13INT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 12:19
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
25.7%
Greg Windham pass intercepted, touchback. DeAndre Scott return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
OHIODrive 15PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
25.4%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 4 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+15
24.4%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
24.0%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 7 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-7
24.3%
Derrius Vick sacked by Jamal Marcus for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 47Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
26.3%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16FG15 plays · 67 yds · 6:4127% → 30%
Q3 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+11
28.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 11 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
31.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 13 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+19
30.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Michael Means Jr. for 19 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
32.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Tyrell Goodman, broken up by Langston ProvittSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 11
OPP 19
-10
30.6%
WOODSON, T. pass complete to McNEIL, Josh for 13 yards to the OHIO6 (POLING, Quentin;BROWN, Blair), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the OHIO29, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0570% → 70%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
29.6%
VICK, Derrius pass incomplete to HEITZMAN, K., PENALTY OHIO holding 4 yards to the OHIO4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+29
31.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Papi White for 29 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-1
26.8%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Daz'mond Patterson for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
30.0%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
30.5%
WOODSON, T. pass intercepted by BASS, Devin at the AKRON45, BASS, Devin return to the AKRON45, PENALTY OHIO pass interference 15 yards to the AKRON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
30.5%
Zach Paul punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0075% → 72%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
25.2%
VICK, Derrius pass incomplete to SMITH, S., PENALTY OHIO holding 7 yards to the OHIO8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 17
OWN 8
0
25.6%
Derrius Vick pass incomplete to Brendan Cope, broken up by Bryce CheekSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+9
26.1%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Jordan Reid for 9 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-7
27.0%
Derrius Vick sacked by Jamal Marcus for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 10Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
28.2%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20FG10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1632% → 41%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
50
+12
32.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Hakeem Lawrence for 12 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
32.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Tyrell Goodman, broken up by Casey SaylesSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+22
29.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Imani Davis for 22 yds Imani Davis fumbled, forced by Langston Provitt, for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0074% → 69%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
26.3%
Derrius Vick pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
24.6%
Derrius Vick sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 35 OHIO Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the Ohio 35Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
30.9%
Mitch Bonnstetter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by A.J. Coney at the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4038% → 31%
Q4 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-8
37.8%
Thomas Woodson sacked by Quentin Poling for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 20Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+13
29.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Andrew Pratt for 13 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
31.0%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Andrew Pratt, broken up by Ian WellsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
10.3%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:09
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 18 for a 1ST down
-20.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:55
Derrius Vick pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 39
-13
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-10.4