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BALL

Ball State 28 at Eastern Michigan 17

EMU
2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:44 · James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the EMich 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+0.5Pregame prior−4.6Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:23: Darius Jackson run for 63 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK) — EMU win probability +15.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:22: Riley Neal run for 41 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +9.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:38: Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +13.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:55: James Gilbert run for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +25.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:14: James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +17.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44EMU 4th & 3 at BALL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:23BALL 4th & 5 at EMU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27EMU 4th & 21 at EMU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:39EMU 4th & 9 at BALL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:29BALL 4th & 5 at EMU 21, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:06BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:22EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−3.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:59EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:44BALL 4th & 1 at EMU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−5.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:53BALL 4th & 1 at EMU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−5.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−6.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:55EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:46EMU 4th & 5 at BALL 17, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%−1.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−4.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:46BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:36BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 12:51EMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:23EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:22BALL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:38BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:55BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:14BALL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.0%
Shaq Vann run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
38.0%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
38.0%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Osazuwamen Igbinosun) to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
38.0%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+11
38.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 46 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 11 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:1362% → 61%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
38.3%
Darian Green run for 42 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
38.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
38.2%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
38.3%
MILAS, Jack pass incomplete to LACANARIA, Corey (GIRALDO, Juan), PENALTY EMU personal foul (GIRALDO, Juan) 10 yards to the EMU9, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
38.2%
Jack Milas sacked by Derric Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the EMich 20Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
-15
38.7%
MILAS, Jack pass complete to MABON, KeVonn for 20 yards to the EMU0, clock 12:02, PENALTY BALL pass interference (HOGUE, Jordan) 15 yards to the EMU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 35
0
38.4%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 35
0
38.6%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 35
+52
38.8%
Morgan Hagee 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 4 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
39.5%
Eddie Daugherty run for 5 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+16
39.4%
Brogan Roback run for 16 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
39.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-10
39.5%
Brogan Roback run for 5 yds to the EMich 37 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Dustin Creel) to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+19
39.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 19 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
39.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Darius Jackson, broken up by Keenan NoelSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
39.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
40.0%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
40.1%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
39.7%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
39.7%
Darian Green run for 8 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
39.5%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
39.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
39.5%
Jack Milas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
39.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
40.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
41.1%
Shaq Vann run for 13 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
41.2%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+14
41.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 14 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
41.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 11 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
42.2%
Brogan Roback run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
50
-5
42.3%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the EMich 45Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
41.7%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-9
41.2%
Brogan Roback sacked by Sean Wiggins for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
40.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 20 , Corey Lacanaria returns for no gain to the BalSt 20 Corey Lacanaria fumbled, forced by Tyrie Mack, recovered by EMich Kyle Rachwal , return for 1 yd to the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4944% → 44%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
44.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Shaq Vann for 8 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
44.2%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-8
43.7%
Brogan Roback run for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
44.4%
Dylan Mulder 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3356% → 55%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
44.5%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
43.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
44.8%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
45.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2346% → 53%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
50
0
46.3%
Darius Jackson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
50
+4
46.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kris Strange for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+27
45.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kris Strange for 27 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
46.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
53.1%
Darius Jackson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:2248% → 46%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
52.0%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
51.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
50.7%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
50
+14
50.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 14 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
50.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
50.4%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
49.5%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
49.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+4
50.6%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+4
53.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the EMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 2:0054% → 69%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
53.5%
Darius Jackson run for 7 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
53.6%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
52.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kris Strange for 6 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
53.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 7 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+63
69.3%
Darius Jackson run for 63 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0133% → 42%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.0%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
66.3%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
66.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+10
69.0%
James Gilbert run for 10 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
68.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Chris Shillings for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
67.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
58.3%
Riley Neal run for 41 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
60.0%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
61.4%
Shaq Vann run for 1 yd to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
60.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Shaq Vann, broken up by Ben IngleSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
59.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:1837% → 54%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+23
63.4%
Darian Green run for 23 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
61.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 22 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
59.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
59.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
58.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
59.5%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
45.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 26 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
51.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
50.9%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
51.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
49.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 6 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-8
48.5%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the EASTMICH 49 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (John Whitman III) to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-7
50.5%
Riley Neal sacked by Anthony Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+7
53.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
52.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 40 yds, downed at the EMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
54.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 4 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
54.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 2 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+21
53.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dustin Creel for 21 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
57.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Lavonte Robinson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 6
50
+1
57.9%
Darius Jackson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-8
57.1%
Eddie Daugherty run for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 43Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 13
OWN 43
+42
53.1%
Austin Barnes punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EASTMICH 15 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
21 plays · 85 yds · 9:4945% → 71%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
55.3%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
55.1%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+9
56.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
54.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
55.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+14
56.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 14 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
51.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-8
51.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+16
55.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 16 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
53.2%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
50.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 2 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
50.9%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
51.4%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
58.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
54.7%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the EMich 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
55.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 4 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+9
56.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 9 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
54.8%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+7
54.8%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
29.0%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin Creel, broken up by Darius ConawaySimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
37.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
37.1%
Austin Barnes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4768% → 90%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
31.7%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Mike Brown) to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+30
28.9%
Darian Green run for 30 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
28.2%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
28.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 6 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
29.1%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
28.2%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
28.2%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the EMich 1Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:2814% → 12%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
13.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Kris Strange for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+20
14.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 20 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
15.8%
Darius Jackson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
16.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Austin StoneSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+21
15.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 21 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
18.4%
Shaq Vann run for 5 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
18.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Cody Tuttle, broken up by David MooreSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
16.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
12.4%
Dylan Mulder 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
8.3%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
8.4%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
8.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
8.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 20 yds, downed at the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
10.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris StrangeSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
9.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+14
9.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Cody Tuttle for 14 yds to the BalSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
12.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dustin CreelSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
12.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris Strange, broken up by Darius ConawaySimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
10.0%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Sean Wiggins return for no gain to the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1795% → 95%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
5.5%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 11
OWN 10
0
5.3%
Darian Green run for no gain to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+5
5.0%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+9
4.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 54 yds , Blake Banham returns for 9 yds to the EMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
4.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Cody Tuttle, broken up by Ben IngleSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
3.9%
Brogan Roback sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
3.5%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Sean Wiggins return for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
3.3%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+2
3.3%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+1
3.3%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:55
James Gilbert run for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-25.8
TD · Q4 8:14
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-17.9
TD · Q2 7:23
Darius Jackson run for 63 yds for a TD, (Dylan Mulder KICK)
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com