Try the model
MUR

Murray State 26 at Northern Illinois 57

NIU
2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:05 · Landon Stratton punt for 42 yds, downed at the NoIll 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior+46.5Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 3 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:19: Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 55 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan PAT BLOCKED) — NIU win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:53: Kd Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 34 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MUR win probability +3.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:31: Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 33 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:17: Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:56NIU 4th & 14 at MUR 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:05MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:47MUR 4th & 14 at MUR 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:11NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 38, up 6
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:58MUR 4th & 9 at NIU 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:58NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:28MUR 4th & 1 at NIU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.8
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:40NIU 4th & 9 at MUR 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:26MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 19, down 3
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:25MUR 4th & 9 at MUR 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:33NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:23MUR 4th & 15 at MUR 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:12MUR 4th & 8 at MUR 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:42MUR 4th & 3 at NIU 9, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:33NIU 4th & 1 at MUR 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55NIU 4th & 3 at MUR 26, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:52NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:51MUR Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:48NIU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:19NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:53MUR Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:31NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:17NIU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:11NIU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:58NIU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.5%
Kd Humphries pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
97.5%
Kd Humphries run for 3 yds to the MurrS 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
97.5%
Kd Humphries pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
97.5%
Landon Stratton punt for 27 yds, downed at the NoIll 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the MurrS 49Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
97.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the MurrS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
97.4%
D.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the MurrS 42Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-5
97.4%
HARE, Drew rush for 5 yards to the MUR37 (DEAN, Zach), PENALTY NIU illegal shift 5 yards to the MUR47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 6 yds to the MurrS 26Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
97.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 6 yds to the MurrS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
97.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 13 yds to the MurrS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 2 yds to the MurrS 47Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Kd Humphries pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-1
97.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Nick Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 46Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
97.1%
Landon Stratton punt for 42 yds, downed at the NoIll 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 1:5797% → 97%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
96.7%
Drew Hare run for 14 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
96.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+7
96.8%
Drew Hare run for 7 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
96.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+49
96.8%
Aregeros Turner run for 49 yds to the MurrS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
96.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the MurrS 4Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.8%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.6%
Kd Humphries run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 24Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
96.6%
Roman Clay run for 6 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
96.6%
HUMPHRIES, KD pass incomplete to DAVIS, Janawski, PENALTY NIU pass interference (LOGAN, Paris) 15 yards to the MUR45, 1ST DOWN MUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.5%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Roman ClaySimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
96.6%
Roman Clay run for 4 yds to the MurrS 49Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-10
96.5%
HUMPHRIES, KD rush for 2 yards to the NIU49 (JONES, Mario), PENALTY MUR holding (WHITE, Chris) 10 yards to the MUR39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+2
96.6%
Roman Clay run for 2 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+6
96.7%
Landon Stratton punt for 34 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
96.3%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
96.3%
Drew Hare run for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
96.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+6
96.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 49 yds , Janawski Davis returns for 6 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:004% → 6%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
96.0%
Nick Taylor run for 9 yds to the MurrS 28Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
95.9%
Nick Taylor run for 3 yds to the MurrS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
96.0%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 29Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-5
96.0%
MURRAY ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MurrS 24Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 17
OWN 24
+6
96.0%
Nick Taylor run for 6 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+35
96.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 35 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
95.7%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 7 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+15
95.7%
Kd Humphries run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Paris Logan) to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
95.7%
Nick Taylor run for 7 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
95.7%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Janawski DavisSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
94.1%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Nick Taylor for 6 yds for a TD, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0395% → 96%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
94.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 16 yds to the MurrS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
94.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 2 yds to the MurrS 47Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
94.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 6 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+23
94.6%
D.J. Brown run for 23 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
94.7%
D.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the MurrS 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+8
94.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the MurrS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
94.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the MurrS 1Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:425% → 7%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
94.9%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 11 yds to the MurrS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.9%
Roman Clay run for 1 yd to the MurrS 26Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
94.9%
Roman Clay run for 5 yds to the MurrS 31Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
94.9%
Roman Clay run for 6 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Renard Cheren) to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.5%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Paul RiceSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
94.6%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Drew Rutland for 15 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.4%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+24
94.4%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 24 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.4%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Paul RiceSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.4%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for no gain to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.6%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Drew RutlandSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
93.1%
Carson Greifenkamp 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.3%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.3%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
93.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by D'Montre WadeSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Janawski Davis at the MurrS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11INT
16 plays · 62 yds · 5:297% → 10%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for no gain to the MurrS 34Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
93.0%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 7 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+8
92.6%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 8 yds to the MurrS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
92.5%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Nick Taylor for 22 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
92.2%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 1 yd to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-8
92.3%
Kd Humphries sacked by Renard Cheren for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+17
92.3%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 17 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
91.5%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 1 yd to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
91.5%
Nick Taylor run for 5 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
91.8%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Nick Taylor for 3 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
92.1%
Kd Humphries run for 3 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
91.5%
Nick Taylor run for 4 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
91.5%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Drew Rutland for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 4Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.2%
Kd Humphries pass intercepted, touchback. Paris Logan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
92.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the MurrS 34Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-3
92.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 37Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
91.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
91.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Janawski Davis at the MurrS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:569% → 9%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
90.7%
Roman Clay run for 2 yds to the MurrS 12Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
90.8%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 3 yds to the MurrS 15Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
91.1%
Kd Humphries run for 4 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+10
90.8%
Landon Stratton punt for 51 yds , Chad Beebe returns for 10 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:0191% → 94%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
91.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 18 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
91.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Desroy Maxwell for 3 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+14
91.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 14 yds to the MurrS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Desroy MaxwellSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
91.6%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the MurrS 25Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+11
90.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 11 yds to the MurrS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
91.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 11 yds to the MurrS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 3 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:3794% → 96%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
93.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
94.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
96.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 55 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:214% → 8%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
95.6%
Kd Humphries run for 3 yds to the MurrS 17Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
95.6%
Nick Taylor run for 4 yds to the MurrS 21Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+8
95.6%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 8 yds to the MurrS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
95.4%
Nick Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 28Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+38
95.6%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Jeremy Harness for 38 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
92.0%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 34 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 2:1793% → 97%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
93.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 13 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
93.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
93.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 12 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
93.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Jordan Huff for 4 yds to the MurrS 42Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
93.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 6 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
93.9%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+33
97.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 33 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
96.3%
Roman Clay run for 7 yds to the MurrS 34Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
96.1%
Roman Clay run for 2 yds to the MurrS 36Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+6
96.1%
Roman Clay run for 6 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.1%
Roman Clay run for 1 yd to the MurrS 43Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
96.1%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
96.3%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy Harness, broken up by Bobby Jones IVSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
96.5%
Landon Stratton punt for 37 yds, downed at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+17
97.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 17 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
97.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
97.3%
Aregeros Turner run for no gain to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+1
97.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 39 yds , Janawski Davis returns for 1 yd to the MurrS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Paul RiceSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-5
96.8%
Kd Humphries sacked by William Lee and Rajshawn Mosley for a loss of 5 yards to the MurrS 13Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 15
OWN 13
+24
96.9%
Landon Stratton punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MurrS 27 , Chad Beebe returns for 24 yds to the MurrS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:0197% → 99%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
97.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+8
97.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 8 yds to the MurrS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
97.3%
Drew Hare run for 5 yds to the MurrS 6Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.8%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Zach Shipley for 1 yd to the MurrS 26Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.8%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Zach Shipley for no gain to the MurrS 26Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
98.8%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Paul Rice for 9 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.7%
Roman Clay run for no gain to the MurrS 35Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.7%
Roman Clay run for 2 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Dominique RhymesSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Landon Stratton punt for 50 yds, downed at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
99.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 12 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+32
99.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Chad Beebe for 32 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+47
99.2%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 16 Jordan Huff fumbled, forced by Jalen Harrington, recovered by MurrS Jalen Harrington , return for 47 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Kd Humphries pass incomplete to Jeremy HarnessSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
98.9%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Nick Taylor for 6 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+1
99.0%
Nick Taylor run for 1 yd to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
99.1%
Carson Greifenkamp 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:2599% → 100%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
99.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 6 yds to the NoIll 39 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (Aregeros Turner) to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 14
OWN 29
+7
99.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 7 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
99.2%
Marcus Jones run for 9 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 4 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
99.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the MurrS 46Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+46
99.9%
Jordan Huff run for 46 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 27INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Roman Clay run for 4 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Kd Humphries pass complete to Mitch Stults for 2 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Kd Humphries pass intercepted Mycial Allen return for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:38100% → 99%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 12 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the MurrS 31Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
99.9%
D.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the MurrS 30Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
D.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the MurrS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
D.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the MurrS 27Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+60
99.4%
Ryan Graham sacked by St. Pierre Anilus for a loss of 9 yards Ryan Graham fumbled, recovered by MurrS Dylan Boone , return for 0 yards , return for 60 yds, (Carson Greifenkamp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:5499% → 100%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.3%
Ryan Graham run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+25
99.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 25 yds to the MurrS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.4%
D.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
99.4%
D.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the MurrS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.4%
D.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the MurrS 32Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-6
99.4%
Ryan Graham sacked by Jalen Harrington for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 38Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+12
99.3%
D.J. Brown run for 12 yds to the MurrS 26Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
99.8%
Christian Hagan 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 30INT TD
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:521% → 0%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
99.4%
Kd Humphries sacked by Cody Sullivan for a loss of 10 yards to the MurrS 29Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+42
100.0%
Kd Humphries pass intercepted for a TD Mayomi Olootu return for 42 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
100.0%
Roman Clay run for 7 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
Roman Clay run for 9 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:53
Kd Humphries pass complete to Janawski Davis for 34 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3.6
TD · Q3 9:31
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 33 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 14:19
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 55 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan PAT BLOCKED)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com