2015 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2015 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:05 · Trayion Durham run for 2 yds to the DelSt 19 Trayion Durham fumbled, forced by Mark Flakes, for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FUMBLE · Q1 1:45: Esayah Obado run for a loss of 5 yards Esayah Obado fumbled, recovered by KntSt Nate Terhune for a TD, (G. Bollas Run For Two-point Conversion) — KENT win probability +0.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: DSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:38: Trayion Durham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) KENT ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined — KENT win probability +2.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:58: William Burton 35 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — DSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:30: George Bollas run for 5 yds for a TD, (April Goss KICK) — KENT win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:18: Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 18 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9DSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 15:00KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%average punt
- Q1 8:15DSU 4th & 12 at DSU 18, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q1 6:18KENT 4th & 17 at DSU 28, up 8Close callWent for it · 92.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.8%−0.214% to convertField goal92.0%60% to makePunt91.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 1:39DSU 4th & 9 at DSU 18, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q2 11:38KENT 4th & 1 at DSU 1, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.4%59% to convertField goal92.9%−0.594% to makePunt91.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 11:31DSU 4th & 23 at DSU 14, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 8:50KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 47, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:24DSU 4th & 2 at DSU 34, down 23Close callPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:57KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 38, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:29DSU 4th & 18 at DSU 18, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 10:36KENT 4th & 18 at DSU 39, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.113% to convertField goal99.6%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 3:24DSU 4th & 14 at DSU 5, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:11KENT 4th & 9 at DSU 43, up 39Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.7%−0.128% to makePunt99.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00DSU 4th & 4 at DSU 49, down 39Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:05KENT 4th & 1 at DSU 21, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.174% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 7:18KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 45, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:54DSU 4th & 6 at KENT 41, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.140% to convertField goal0.3%32% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5DSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 8:20KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick92.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:38KENT Touchdown, up 22 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick95.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:58DSU Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick6.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:30KENT Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:18KENT Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:34KENT Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
DSUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -28 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 11:58
3RD & 14
OWN 29
-16
94.5%
Esayah Obado sacked by Nate Terhune for a loss of 9 yards to the DelSt 5 Esayah Obado fumbled, , return for 0 yards DELAWARE ST Penalty, illegal kicking (Jamaal Jackson) to the DelSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3TD5 plays · 42 yds · 1:3694% → 94%
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
94.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 20 yds for a TD, (George Bollas pass to Brice Fackler for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-10
94.2%
Esayah Obado sacked by Clay Miller for a loss of 10 yards to the DelSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5DOWNS10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
94.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Johnny Woods for 11 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
94.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 18 yds to the DelSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
94.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Johnny Woods for 5 yds to the DelSt 30Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-10
94.1%
HOLLEY, Nick rush for no gain to the DSU18 (SHERROD,G.;BARRETT,R.), PENALTY KENT holding (REDA, Reno) 10 yards to the DSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 17
OPP 28
0
93.9%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Ernest Calhoun, broken up by Ronald RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+15
93.8%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 15 yds to the DelSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 6FUMBLE TD3 plays · -13 yds · 0:537% → 6%
Q1 1:45
3RD & 15
OWN 8
0
94.2%
Esayah Obado run for a loss of 5 yards Esayah Obado fumbled, recovered by KntSt Nate Terhune for a TD, (G. Bollas Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
KENTDrive 8FUMBLE5 plays · 39 yds · 0:4195% → 95%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+8
94.8%
Colin Reardon run for 8 yds to the DelSt 12 Colin Reardon fumbled, forced by Terrick Colston, recovered by DelSt Kevin JocelynSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 9INT2 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
KENTDrive 10TD5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5895% → 97%
Q2 11:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Trayion Durham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) KENT ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
96.6%
Esayah Obado run for a loss of 10 yards to the DelSt 17 Esayah Obado fumbled, recovered by DelSt Esayah ObadoSimilar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 20
OWN 17
-8
96.7%
Esayah Obado sacked by Terence Waugh for a loss of 8 yards to the DelSt 9 DELAWARE ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3297% → 95%
KENTDrive 13TD13 plays · 60 yds · 4:2096% → 98%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
95.5%
HOLLEY, Nick rush for 3 yards to the KENT43 (COLSTON,T.), PENALTY KENT holding (PRUITT, Anthony) 10 yards to the KENT30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+6
95.3%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 6 yds to the DelSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
95.6%
George Bollas pass complete to Kris White for 20 yds to the DelSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.0%
Esayah Obado pass complete to Kamal Abrams for 6 yds to the DelSt 32Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+4
96.9%
Esayah Obado pass complete to Jerimiah Williams for 4 yds to the DelSt 34Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 2
OWN 34
-2
96.9%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 46 yds , Ernest Calhoun returns for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 32 KENT ST Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the KntSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15TD10 plays · 91 yds · 2:1598% → 99%
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+21
98.0%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for 21 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
98.1%
Colin Reardon run for 6 yds to the KntSt 36 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 14
OWN 26
+12
98.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 12 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Kris White for no gain to the KntSt 38Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Colin Reardon pass incomplete to Kris White, broken up by William BurtonSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.4%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 18 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 17FUMBLE6 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-10
99.3%
OBADO,E. pass incomplete to SCOTT,A., PENALTY DSU holding (MENGONI,E.) 10 yards to the DSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 25
-8
99.3%
Esayah Obado sacked by Terence Waugh for a loss of 8 yards to the DelSt 19 Esayah Obado fumbled, recovered by KntSt Marques Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD3 plays · 19 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Nick Holley for 4 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-9
99.6%
Esayah Obado sacked by Nate Holley for a loss of 9 yards to the DelSt 18Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
99.6%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 37 yds , Ernest Calhoun returns for no gain to the KntSt 46 Ernest Calhoun fumbled, recovered by KntSt Ernest CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.7%
WASHINGTON, M. rush for 13 yards to the DSU41 (FLAKES,M.), PENALTY KENT holding (SHINSKY, Connor) 10 yards to the KENT36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-1
99.7%
George Bollas pass complete to Myles Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 35Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 23
OWN 33
+15
99.6%
MELCHIORI, A. punt 43 yards to the DSU24, downed, PENALTY DSU roughing the kicker (JACKSON,J.) 15 yards to the KENT48, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
99.7%
BOLLAS, George rush for 2 yards to the DSU47 (COLSTON,T.), PENALTY DSU offside defense (SHERROD,G.) 5 yards to the DSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-9
99.7%
Raekwon James run for a loss of 9 yards to the DelSt 39 Raekwon James fumbled, recovered by KntSt Raekwon JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 21SF5 plays · -4 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 15
OWN 4
0
99.8%
Esayah Obado pass incomplete to Aris Scott, broken up by Nate HolleySimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 12
OWN 7
-2
99.8%
Esayah Obado sacked by Jon Cunningham for a loss of 2 yards to the DelSt 5Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
99.8%
OBADO,E. pass incomplete to ABRAMS,K. (MONDAY, D.), PENALTY DSU holding 5 yards to the DSU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 14
OWN 5
0
99.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Ryan Seibert for a SAFETY blocked by Ryan Seibert for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
DSUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Jeremiah McGeough punt for 38 yds , Ernest Calhoun returns for 7 yds to the KENTST 44 KENT ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the KntSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24FUMBLE TD16 plays · 62 yds · 6:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+10
99.9%
George Bollas pass complete to Charles Chandler for 10 yds to the KntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+18
99.9%
George Bollas pass complete to P.J. Simmons for 18 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
99.9%
DURHAM, Trayion rush for 6 yards to the DSU37 (COLSTON,T.), PENALTY KENT illegal block 15 yards to the KENT42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Trayion Durham run for 2 yds to the DelSt 19 Trayion Durham fumbled, forced by Mark Flakes, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+72
99.9%
George Bollas run for a loss of 9 yards George Bollas fumbled, recovered by DelSt Terrick Colston , return for 72 yds, (Wisdom Nzidee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 25TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
99.7%
KENT ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Josh Boyle) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26DOWNS8 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
99.7%
George Bollas pass complete to Luke Grandjean for 6 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 27DOWNS4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28END OF GAME6 plays · 4 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
99.9%
KENT ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:30
George Bollas run for 5 yds for a TD, (April Goss KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 11:38
Trayion Durham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) KENT ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined
+2
TD · Q2 8:58
William Burton 35 Yd Fumble Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-2