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UALB

UAlbany 14 at Buffalo 51

BUF
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2015 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreUALB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:48 · Tyler Grassman punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Josh Gontarek at the Alban 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+31.5Pregame prior+8.5Score differential+26.3Garbage-time factor+10.4Blowout margin+9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:27: D.J. Crook pass complete to Josh Gontarek for 4 yds for a TD, (Patrick Toole KICK) — UALB win probability +5.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:19: Anthone Taylor run for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +5.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:28: Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +9.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:16: Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +6.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:08: Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UALB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:23UALB 4th & 5 at UALB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:30BUF 4th & 13 at UALB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:30UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:19UALB 4th & 5 at UALB 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:58BUF 4th & 2 at UALB 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−1.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:16UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:03UALB 4th & 10 at UALB 18, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:48BUF 4th & 6 at UALB 35, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:42BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 31, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:01BUF 4th & 1 at UALB 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:01BUF 4th & 1 at UALB 1, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:32UALB 4th & 12 at UALB 38, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UALB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:27UALB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:29BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:19BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:28BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:16BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:08BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:48UALB Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:01BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
73.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
73.1%
Joe Licata pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.1%
Tyler Grassman punt for 51 yds, downed at the Alban 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 6:5427% → 33%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
72.7%
Elliot Croskey run for 6 yds to the Alban 24Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
72.7%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Elliot CroskeySimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+6
72.8%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Zee Roberson for 6 yds to the Alban 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
72.7%
Elliot Croskey run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alban 27Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+7
72.7%
D.J. Crook run for 7 yds to the Alban 34Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+30
72.7%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Josh Gontarek for 30 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
72.6%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Josh Gontarek for 6 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
72.5%
Elliot Croskey run for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+8
72.6%
D.J. Crook run for 8 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
72.5%
Elliot Croskey run for 4 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
72.5%
D.J. Crook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
72.6%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Zee Roberson for 11 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
72.5%
Elliot Croskey run for 2 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.5%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Josh Gontarek for 4 yds for a TD, (Patrick Toole KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:4969% → 72%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
68.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
68.7%
Joe Licata run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
50
0
69.2%
Anthone Taylor run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 10
50
+13
69.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 13 yds to the Alban 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
69.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 13 yds to the Alban 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
69.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 5 yds to the Alban 19Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
69.6%
Anthone Taylor run for 10 yds to the Alban 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
72.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
70.6%
Elliot Croskey run for 2 yds to the Alban 29Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
70.6%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Josh GontarekSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+3
70.9%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Brad Harris for 3 yds to the Alban 32Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+15
71.2%
Jon Martin punt for 55 yds , Collin Lisa returns for 15 yds to the Buff 47 ALBANY Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:2672% → 71%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
71.5%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 10 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
71.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Alban 46Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+26
72.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 26 yds to the Alban 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
72.5%
James O'Hagan run for no gain to the Alban 36 James O'Hagan fumbled, recovered by Buff Jordan Johnson , return for no gain to the Alban 36Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 26
OPP 36
+11
71.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 11 yds to the Alban 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+2
71.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 2 yds to the Alban 23Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
71.2%
Adam Mitcheson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Elliot Croskey, broken up by Justin BrandonSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.6%
Elliot Croskey rush for 3 yards to the ALBANY28 (WILLIAMSON, Rya), PENALTY UB offside (HARRIS, Charles) 5 yards to the ALBANY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
71.2%
Josh Gontarek run for 5 yds to the Alban 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
71.3%
Elliot Croskey run for 4 yds to the Alban 39Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
70.5%
Elliot Croskey run for 3 yds to the Alban 42Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
70.5%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete, broken up by Nick GilboSimilar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
71.4%
Jon Martin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:4571% → 79%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
71.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 5 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+7
71.1%
Anthone Taylor run for 7 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
71.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+3
72.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
71.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+6
71.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 6 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
71.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+24
71.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Ron Willoughby for 24 yds to the Alban 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
73.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 6 yds to the Alban 24Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
73.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Alban 21Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
79.0%
Anthone Taylor run for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.1%
Elliot Croskey run for 3 yds to the Alban 28Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
77.9%
Elliot Croskey run for 2 yds to the Alban 30Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
78.1%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Brad Harris, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Jon Martin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:1579% → 89%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
78.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Jordan Johnson, broken up by DaSharnte ThompsonSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
78.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
78.2%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 11 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
79.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (O'HAGAN, James) 5 yards to the UB34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+15
78.6%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Ron Willoughby for a 1ST down ALBANY Penalty, personal foul (Jamal Merritt) to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
79.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 27 yds to the Alban 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.2%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
80.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Alban 19Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+3
79.6%
Joe Licata pass complete to Matt Weiser for 3 yds to the Alban 16Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+14
77.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds to the Alban 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.3%
[SGUN], LICATA, Joe pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus, PENALTY ALBANY pass interference (Kyle Sakowski) 1 yards to the ALBANY1, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 1:2214% → 16%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
86.3%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Josh Gontarek for 21 yds to the Alban 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
85.4%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Brad HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
85.7%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Elliot Croskey for 10 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
84.6%
D.J. Crook run for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
84.4%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Zee Roberson for 5 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
84.0%
D.J. Crook pass complete to A Manzo-Lewis for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
82.9%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Brad HarrisSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+11
83.9%
D.J. Crook pass intercepted Nick Gilbo return for 11 yds to the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:3090% → 88%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
89.8%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 8 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
89.9%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.1%
Joe Licata run for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
88.8%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (LISA, Collin) 5 yards to the UB39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 15
OWN 39
0
88.7%
Joe Licata pass incomplete to Matt Weiser BUFFALO Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+8
88.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
87.3%
Elliot Croskey run for 3 yds to the Alban 14Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
87.5%
D.J. Crook pass intercepted Boise Ross return for no gain to the Alban 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:5488% → 95%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
88.4%
Anthone Taylor run for 3 yds to the Alban 19Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+18
88.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 18 yds to the Alban 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.9%
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
D.J. Crook pass incomplete to Brad HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.9%
Elliot Croskey run for 2 yds to the Alban 27Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
94.0%
D.J. Crook pass complete to Josh Gontarek for 5 yds to the Alban 32Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.8%
Jon Martin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Collin Lisa at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3295% → 99%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.2%
Anthone Taylor run for 8 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-13
95.3%
JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the UB31 (Ch. Harris), PENALTY UB SL (O'HENLY, Tyler) 13 yards to the UB15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+14
95.1%
Joe Licata pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
95.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+46
95.3%
Joe Licata pass complete to Collin Lisa for 46 yds to the Alban 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.4%
Joe Licata pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.2%
Neven Sussman run for 5 yds to the Alban 23Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-2
99.3%
Neven Sussman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alban 21 Neven Sussman fumbled, recovered by Alban Neven SussmanSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-8
99.2%
Neven Sussman sacked by Okezie Alozie for a loss of 8 yards to the Alban 18 Neven Sussman fumbled, recovered by Alban Brad Harris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.2%
Jon Martin punt for 42 yds , Collin Lisa returns for 8 yds to the Buff 26 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (Ishmael Hargrove) to the Buff 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.6%
Tony Daniel run for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
99.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-4
99.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+18
99.6%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 3 yds to the Alban 46 for a 1ST down ALBANY Penalty, roughing passer (Neil Morrison) to the Alban 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alban 37Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
99.6%
Tony Daniel pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 6 yds to the Alban 31Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-4
99.5%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alban 35Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
99.5%
Tyler Grassman punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Josh Gontarek at the Alban 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 18TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 5:470% → 1%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
99.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 8 yds to the Alban 19Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+10
99.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 10 yds to the Alban 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.7%
Neven Sussman run for 2 yds to the Alban 31Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
99.8%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Jordan Crockett for 1 yd to the Alban 32Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+23
99.8%
Neven Sussman pass complete to A Manzo-Lewis for 23 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.8%
Neven Sussman run for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
99.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+20
99.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 20 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 10 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 4 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 3 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Patrick Toole KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Tony Daniel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
98.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
99.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
98.9%
Tyler Grassman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Josh Gontarek at the Alban 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.9%
Neven Sussman run for 6 yds to the Alban 46 Neven Sussman fumbled, forced by C.J. Stancil, recovered by Buff Brandon StanbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 6:0099% → 100%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Alban 42Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+17
99.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 17 yds to the Alban 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Alban 17Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Alban 16Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Alban 16Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+12
99.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Alban 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Alban 2Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Alban 1Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Alban 1Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Tony Daniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
100.0%
Neven Sussman run for 2 yds to the Alban 26Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+14
100.0%
[SGUN], Neven Sussman pass incomplete to J. Crockett, PENALTY UB pass interference (WILLIAMS, DIAMO) 14 yards to the ALBANY40, 1ST DOWN ALBANY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
99.9%
Neven Sussman sacked by Chris Ford and Randy Anyanwu for a loss of 7 yards to the Alban 33Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+5
100.0%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 5 yds to the Alban 38Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Neven Sussman pass incomplete to Zee Roberson, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+86
100.0%
Jon Martin punt for 48 yds , Jacob Martinez returns for 86 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
100.0%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 4 yds to the Alban 33Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 4 yds to the Alban 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:28
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q3 13:16
Anthone Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 7:19
Anthone Taylor run for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com