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VMI

VMI 36 at Ball State 48

BALL
2015 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2015 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadVMI aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreVMI score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:18 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 41 yds , Dane Forlines returns for 11 yds to the VMI 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Home team on offense+16.8Pregame prior+3.8Score differential+2.2Garbage-time factor+9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:54: Al Cobb pass complete to Dontae Mauck for 80 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher KICK) — VMI win probability +6.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: VMI has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:05: Darian Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +7.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:34: Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 35 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +11.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:23: Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 6 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher KICK) — VMI win probability +8.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: VMI has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:41: James Gilbert run for 14 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7VMI made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00VMI 4th & 1 at VMI 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:25BALL 4th & 1 at VMI 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16BALL 4th & 7 at VMI 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:10VMI 4th & 2 at VMI 35, down 3
    Close callPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:31BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:37VMI 4th & 18 at VMI 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:55BALL 4th & 7 at VMI 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00VMI 4th & 2 at VMI 20, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:03VMI 4th & 13 at VMI 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:35BALL 4th & 9 at VMI 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:59VMI 4th & 3 at BALL 10, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:29VMI 4th & 2 at BALL 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:29BALL 4th & 5 at VMI 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:23VMI 4th & 1 at BALL 6, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−2.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    -2.3%−8.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:18BALL 4th & 14 at VMI 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:41VMI 4th & 3 at VMI 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:55VMI 4th & 6 at BALL 15, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VMI made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 12:09BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:54VMI Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:05BALL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:34BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:20BALL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:34VMI Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:23VMI Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:41BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:55VMI Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:40BALL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:48VMI Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VMIDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
68.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 1 yd to the VMI 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
68.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 7 yds to the VMI 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
68.5%
Al Cobb run for 1 yd to the VMI 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
68.5%
Hayden Alford punt for 46 yds, downed at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 5:0968% → 69%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
68.4%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+13
68.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 13 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
68.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 6 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
68.5%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the VMI 49Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+12
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 12 yds to the VMI 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 19 yds to the VMI 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
68.6%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the VMI 16Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
68.6%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the VMI 12Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+3
68.5%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 3 yds to the VMI 9Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+2
68.5%
Jack Milas run for 2 yds to the VMI 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.6%
Teddy Williamson run for no gain to the VMI 7Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Damian JonesSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
68.5%
Morgan Hagee 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
68.4%
Brice Tucker run for 11 yds to the VMI 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
68.4%
Brice Tucker run for 2 yds to the VMI 29Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
68.4%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 7 yds to the VMI 36Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-1
68.1%
Brice Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the VMI 35Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+9
68.6%
Hayden Alford punt for 46 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 9 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
68.1%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+14
68.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 14 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete, broken up by J.C. GarvinSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
68.5%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Jordan Williams) to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+1
68.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+7
67.9%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
67.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 49 yds, downed at the VMI 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
68.5%
Brice Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the VMI 4Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-2
68.5%
VMI Penalty, false start (Brice Tucker) to the VMI 2Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+9
68.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 9 yds to the VMI 11Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+15
68.8%
Al Cobb pass complete to Darrian Johnson for 15 yds to the VMI 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
68.3%
Brice Tucker rush for 5 yards to the VMI31 (TAYLOR, Aaron), PENALTY VMI holding (Andrew Lewis) 10 yards to the VMI16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 20
OWN 16
-5
68.4%
VMI Penalty, false start (Andrew Lewis) to the VMI 11Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 25
OWN 11
0
68.4%
Al Cobb pass incomplete, broken up by Julian JacksonSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 25
OWN 11
+7
68.4%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 7 yds to the VMI 18Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 18
OWN 18
0
68.8%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Aaron SandersSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 18
OWN 18
+10
69.1%
Hayden Alford punt for 41 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 10 yds to the VMI 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
68.7%
Jack Milas run for 3 yds to the VMI 46Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
68.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Damian JonesSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
68.4%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Alijah RobinsonSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
67.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 34 yds, downed at the VMI 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0032% → 31%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
67.8%
Dane Forlines run for 7 yds to the VMI 19Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
67.7%
Brice Tucker run for 1 yd to the VMI 20Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
68.2%
Al Cobb pass complete to Derrick Ziglar for no gain to the VMI 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+9
68.6%
Hayden Alford punt for 40 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 9 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:4269% → 74%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
68.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the VMI 44Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
68.8%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the VMI 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
68.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the VMI 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
69.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the VMI 25Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+8
69.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 8 yds to the VMI 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
69.1%
Jack Milas pass incomplete, broken up by Joe NelsonSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
69.1%
Jack Milas run for 13 yds to the VMI 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.9%
Darian Green run for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
72.9%
Al Cobb run for 2 yds to the VMI 26Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
72.9%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Chad JacobSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
73.4%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Dane Forlines, broken up by Lamont McPhatterSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 8
OWN 26
-5
73.9%
VMI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the VMI 21Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
74.0%
Hayden Alford punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 2:4473% → 80%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
73.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 12 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
74.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 36 yds to the VMI 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
75.5%
Jack Milas run for 5 yds to the VMI 15Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-10
75.5%
MILAS, Jack rush for loss of 1 yard to the VMI16 (Ryan Francis), PENALTY BALL holding (HARVEY, Jeremi.) 10 yards to the VMI25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
74.2%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+15
73.5%
MILAS, Jack pass incomplete to HOGUE, Jordan, PENALTY VMI pass interference (Caleb Furlow) 15 yards to the VMI10, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
74.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
74.6%
MILAS, Jack pass complete to SHILLINGS, Chri for 1 yard to the VMI9 (A. Cratsenberg;Greg Sanders), PENALTY BALL illegal formation (MILLER, Drake) 5 yards to the VMI15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
74.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 6 yds to the VMI 9Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
74.0%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
79.7%
Morgan Hagee 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 11TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:3721% → 28%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
79.2%
Al Cobb pass complete to Darrian Johnson for 4 yds to the VMI 20Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+80
72.3%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dontae Mauck for 80 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:4174% → 82%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
74.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 6 yds to the VMI 43Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+12
74.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 12 yds to the VMI 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
74.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 16 yds to the VMI 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
74.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 3 yds to the VMI 12Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+10
74.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the VMI 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.7%
Darian Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 69 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
80.1%
Brice Tucker run for 5 yds to the VMI 23Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+19
80.0%
Brice Tucker run for 19 yds to the VMI 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
79.5%
Brice Tucker run for 2 yds to the VMI 44Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
79.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Matthew Nicholson for 5 yds Matthew Nicholson fumbled, forced by Corey Hall, , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 2
50
+7
78.9%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dane Forlines for 7 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
78.6%
Brice Tucker run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
78.7%
Derrick Ziglar run for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+21
78.8%
Dane Forlines pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 21 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
77.5%
Derrick Ziglar run for 3 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
77.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 4 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
78.3%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Aaron SandersSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 3
OPP 10
-3
78.6%
Dane Forlines run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14INT
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
83.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 13 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
83.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 14 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
83.9%
Jack Milas pass intercepted Alijah Robinson return for 28 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 15FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5320% → 24%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
79.9%
Al Cobb pass complete to Samuel Patterson for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+9
78.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Brice Tucker for 9 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
77.7%
Al Cobb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
78.2%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 8 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
79.7%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Samuel PattersonSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
76.2%
Dillon Christopher 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:1979% → 81%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
79.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to Chris Shillings for 14 yds to the VMI 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
79.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
78.8%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 12 yds to the VMI 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
81.4%
Jack Milas pass complete to Morgan Hagee for 4 yds to the VMI 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:2078% → 91%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
77.9%
Darian Green run for 9 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+4
78.2%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 4 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
78.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
77.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Williams for 4 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
78.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+10
79.3%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the VMI 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
79.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 9 yds to the VMI 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
79.5%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
78.8%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the VMI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
79.7%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
79.6%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+35
90.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 35 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0591% → 96%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
91.0%
Jack Milas pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the VMI 20Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+15
91.0%
James Gilbert run for 15 yds to the VMI 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the VMI 1Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 20TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:425% → 10%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
95.1%
Dontae Mauck run for a loss of 3 yards to the VMI 31Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-5
95.4%
VMI Penalty, false start (Stephen Miller) to the VMI 26Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+6
95.4%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dane Forlines for 6 yds to the VMI 32Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+32
95.4%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dane Forlines for 17 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
89.6%
Brice Tucker run for 36 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
91.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-5
92.0%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Jordan Williams) to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
91.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+14
91.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 14 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
92.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
92.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
92.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
92.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 9
50
+4
92.4%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the VMI 46Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
92.3%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Chris ShillingsSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
91.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 45 yds, downed at the VMI 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 22TD
19 plays · 99 yds · 6:327% → 14%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
93.0%
VMI Penalty, false start (Stephen Miller) to the VMI 1Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
93.0%
Al Cobb run for 4 yds to the VMI 5Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+17
93.0%
Al Cobb pass complete to Samuel Patterson for 17 yds to the VMI 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.7%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Dontae Mauck, broken up by Martez HesterSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
92.7%
Brice Tucker run for 7 yds to the VMI 29Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+6
92.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Samuel Patterson for 6 yds to the VMI 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.3%
Brice Tucker run for 2 yds to the VMI 37Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
92.3%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dane Forlines for 12 yds to the VMI 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
92.1%
Derrick Ziglar run for a loss of 3 yards to the VMI 46Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+9
92.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Matthew Nicholson for 9 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
92.2%
Al Cobb pass complete to Brice Tucker for 6 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
93.7%
Brice Tucker run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
92.8%
Al Cobb pass incomplete, broken up by Keenan NoelSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+20
93.6%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 20 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
92.8%
Brice Tucker run for no gain to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
92.8%
Al Cobb pass complete to Brice Tucker for 6 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
94.6%
Al Cobb pass complete to Cody Shirley for 3 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
85.9%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 6 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
88.7%
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+11
88.6%
Jack Milas pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the VMI 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.9%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
88.8%
Jack Milas pass incomplete to Dylan Curry, broken up by Brian LipscombSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-4
88.1%
Jack Milas pass complete to Teddy Williamson for a loss of 4 yards to the VMI 49Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 14
OPP 49
+11
87.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 41 yds , Dane Forlines returns for 11 yds to the VMI 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
89.5%
Derrick Ziglar run for 3 yds to the VMI 22Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
89.5%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Dontae MauckSimilar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+9
90.0%
Al Cobb sacked by Joshua Posley and Anthony Winbush for a loss of 6 yards to the VMI 32 Al Cobb fumbled, recovered by BalSt Osazuwamen Igbinosun , return for 0 yards BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Osazuwamen Igbinosun) to the VMI 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:1590% → 97%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.1%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the VMI 32Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
89.9%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the VMI 23Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
89.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the VMI 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
90.1%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the VMI 14Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
90.1%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the VMI 14Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
97.4%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:463% → 7%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.6%
Al Cobb run for 5 yds to the VMI 30Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Aaron SandersSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
96.5%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dane Forlines for 2 yds to the VMI 32Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+24
96.6%
Hayden Alford pass complete to Matthew Nicholson for 24 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
96.3%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dane Forlines for 25 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
95.8%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Dane Forlines, broken up by Dedrick CromartieSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
95.9%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Samuel PattersonSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+4
96.3%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 4 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+15
92.9%
Al Cobb pass complete to Samuel Patterson for 15 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
98.8%
Darian Green run for 46 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VMIDrive 28TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:522% → 4%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
98.1%
Al Cobb pass complete to Dontae Mauck for 51 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
97.6%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 12 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
97.6%
Brice Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
97.6%
Al Cobb pass incomplete to Aaron SandersSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+12
97.9%
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 12 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.6%
Al Cobb run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Derrick Ziglar run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 98%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the VMI 41Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
97.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the VMI 37Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
97.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the VMI 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
97.5%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the VMI 29Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VMI 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:34
Jack Milas pass complete to Darian Green for 35 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+11
TD · Q4 12:23
Al Cobb pass complete to Aaron Sanders for 6 yds for a TD, (Dillon Christopher KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q2 6:05
Darian Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com