Try the model
NEV

Nevada 14 at San Diego State 31

SDSU
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Qualcomm Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:19 · Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+19.3Home team on offense+6.1Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:42: Jerico Richardson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brent Zuzo Kick) — NEV win probability +6.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:42: PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 15 yards to the NEV47 (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU28, NO PLAY. — SDSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:21: Donnel Pumphrey 72 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick) — SDSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:58: Donny Hageman 29 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:36: Chase Price 2 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick) — SDSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:24NEV 4th & 4 at SDSU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:20NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 3 at NEV 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:40NEV 4th & 24 at NEV 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:02SDSU 4th & 4 at NEV 9, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 2 at NEV 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:09SDSU 4th & 4 at NEV 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:29NEV 4th & 18 at NEV 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:58SDSU 4th & 3 at NEV 12, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36SDSU 4th & 1 at NEV 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:36NEV 4th & 6 at SDSU 47, down 17
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:45SDSU 4th & 6 at SDSU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:29SDSU 4th & 6 at NEV 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:50NEV 4th & 16 at NEV 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:01SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:30SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:24NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:20SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:42NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:21SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:36SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:3085% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
84.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
84.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
84.8%
Dakota Gordon run for 4 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
84.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
84.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
84.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
84.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 27 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.7%
Donnel Pumphrey 1 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0616% → 17%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+72
84.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 72 yds to the SDSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
83.9%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
83.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 7Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
83.7%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SDSt 4Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.6%
Hunter Fralick 4 Yd Run (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 4:0483% → 85%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
82.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+2
82.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 2 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+24
82.7%
Chase Price run for 24 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
83.2%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
50
+22
83.3%
Chase Price run for 22 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
83.4%
Chase Price run for 11 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
83.4%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
84.5%
Rashaad Penny 14 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
83.8%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
84.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
84.2%
Alex Boy punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4184% → 84%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
84.0%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
84.4%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-8
84.4%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+9
84.0%
Christian Chapman run for 9 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
84.2%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Chase Price for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
83.5%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6INT
10 plays · 72 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.3%
Tyler Stewart run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
83.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Damontae KazeeSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+35
83.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 35 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
82.4%
JACKSON, Don rush for 3 yards to the SDSU41 (FELY, Jake), PENALTY SDSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the SDSU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 5
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the SDSt 39Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
82.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
81.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
81.8%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
81.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 11 yds to the SDSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.8%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted, touchback. Malik Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
82.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-14
83.4%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Calvin Munson and Ryan Dunn for a loss of 14 yards to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 24
OWN 20
+38
83.9%
Alex Boy punt for 33 yds , Mikah Holder returns for 38 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2884% → 83%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
84.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-4
84.0%
Rashaad Penny run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 17Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+8
83.5%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Donnel Pumphrey for 8 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
83.3%
Donny Hageman 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2017% → 26%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
83.0%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
82.8%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
83.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
82.6%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
82.9%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+24
82.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Don Jackson for 24 yds to the SDSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
81.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 39 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
80.5%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 3Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 0
OWN 3
0
74.1%
Jerico Richardson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brent Zuzo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:2176% → 83%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
76.0%
PUMPHREY, Donne rush for 15 yards to the NEV47 (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+3
75.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the SDSt 31Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 17
OWN 31
-3
74.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 28 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+72
82.5%
Donnel Pumphrey 72 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0217% → 16%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
83.5%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Randy Ricks for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 22 Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by Nevad James Butler , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+2
84.0%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+2
84.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
84.3%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the SDSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
83.0%
Christian Chapman run for 8 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 22Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
84.0%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 1 yd to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+1
83.8%
Christian Chapman run for 1 yd to the SDSt 24Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
83.5%
Tanner Blain punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
81.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
81.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
81.2%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
82.0%
Alex Boy punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 47 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
82.0%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
81.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+15
81.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 15 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
82.3%
Chase Price run for 11 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
82.5%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
83.5%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
82.3%
Christian Chapman run for 11 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
83.8%
Chase Price run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 9
50
+6
83.7%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-5
83.4%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 49Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
82.9%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Chase Price for 4 yds to the Nevad 45 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
82.4%
Tanner Blain punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.9%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-13
81.5%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Alex Barrett for a loss of 13 yards to the Nevad 12Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+18
82.6%
Alex Boy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Mikah Holder at the Nevad 45 NEVADA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Nevad 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2786% → 87%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the Nevad 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
86.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
85.2%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
86.7%
Donny Hageman 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
85.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
85.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jake Fely , return for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:3289% → 96%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
88.5%
Chase Price run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+2
88.2%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+21
87.6%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Mikah Holder for 21 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
88.5%
Chase Price run for 5 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-2
89.4%
Chase Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
88.8%
Christian Chapman pass complete to David Wells for 6 yds to the Nevad 2Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Chase Price 2 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
95.6%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+6
95.9%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Malik SmithSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+17
95.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 17 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
95.5%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
95.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by JJ WhittakerSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
95.7%
Alex Boy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
96.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 16Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+16
96.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 16 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
96.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
96.7%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Christian Chapman pass incomplete to Mikah HolderSimilar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
96.7%
Tanner Blain punt for 44 yds, downed at the Nevad 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
96.8%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 15Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
96.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
96.9%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 15 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
96.9%
Tyler Stewart pass intercepted Damontae Kazee return for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
97.2%
PRICE, Chase rush for 1 yard to the NEV42 (MOODY, Elijah), PENALTY SDSU holding 10 yards to the SDSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+3
97.1%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 17
50
-1
97.0%
Chase Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+12
97.0%
Chase Price run for 12 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
96.9%
Tanner Blain punt for 21 yds, downed at the Nevad 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
97.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 16Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 12
OWN 16
-4
97.5%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 12 Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by Nevad Austin Corbett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 16
OWN 12
-5
97.5%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 7Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 21
OWN 7
+5
97.6%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 16
OWN 12
-5
97.5%
Alex Boy punt for 44 yds , Damontae Kazee returns for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
98.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
98.2%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+17
98.1%
Don Jackson run for 17 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:21
Donnel Pumphrey 72 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q4 13:36
Chase Price 2 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)
+7.5
TD · Q2 2:42
Jerico Richardson 0 Yd Fumble Return (Brent Zuzo Kick)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com