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CSU

Colorado State 34 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:51 · Dustin Garrison run for no gain to the ColSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior−18.1Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:40: Dustin Garrison run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +16.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:47: Garrett Swanson kickoff for 61 yds , Kevin Nutt Jr. return for 96 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan PAT BLOCKED) — CSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:27: Izzy Matthews run for 39 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +20.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:58: Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +27.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:03: Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 24 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +26.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 11 of 11CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:16FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59FRES 4th & 5 at CSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50CSU 4th & 10 at FRES 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51FRES 4th & 1 at CSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    31.9%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:26CSU 4th & 25 at CSU 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:13FRES 4th & 1 at CSU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−1.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:54FRES 4th & 27 at CSU 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:06CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 30, down 10
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:21CSU 4th & 9 at FRES 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:42FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−5.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:38FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:28CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:59FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:55CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:42FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−2.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:55FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:39CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:51FRES 4th & 12 at CSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:13FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:13FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:40FRES Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:47CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:27CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:58FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:03CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4430% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
29.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
29.6%
Kilton Anderson run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
29.6%
Marteze Waller run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-1
29.6%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+75
29.9%
Garrett Swanson punt for 44 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 75 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0830% → 32%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
30.3%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
30.3%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
30.4%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+6
30.4%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
30.4%
Kilton Anderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 15
OPP 26
+10
30.2%
Marteze Waller run for 10 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
30.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Kevin Pierre-LouisSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
31.7%
Kody Kroening 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
31.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 16 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
31.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+10
31.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for 10 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
31.0%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
31.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
31.1%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
31.5%
Hayden Hunt punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 55 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
31.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
31.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marteze Waller for 7 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
31.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
31.9%
Marteze Waller run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
32.3%
Marteze Waller run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
32.2%
Marteze Waller run for 21 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
32.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for no gain to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
32.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marteze Waller for no gain to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-5
32.5%
ANDERSON, Kilto pass complete to JORDAN, Jamire for 9 yards to the CS32 (MATTHEWS, Trent), PENALTY FS holding (SCOTT, Da'Mari) 5 yards to the CS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+14
31.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 14 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
32.4%
Dustin Garrison run for no gain to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
32.9%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-15
33.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 32 COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 17Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 25
OWN 17
+30
34.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 40 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 30 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 25
OWN 17
0
33.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:2335% → 38%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
35.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
35.3%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+7
34.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+18
38.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1162% → 61%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
38.1%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+6
38.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 7
-4
38.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+5
39.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 53 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 0:4040% → 38%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
39.8%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
40.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
39.9%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+16
40.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 16 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
40.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
40.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-11
39.8%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Kevin Davis for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 22
OPP 35
-5
37.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 27
OPP 40
0
37.6%
Garrett Swanson punt for 36 yds, downed at the ColSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
40.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
40.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
39.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
39.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
39.6%
MATTHEWS, Izzy rush for 1 yard to the CS31 (EDERAINE, Ejiro), PENALTY CS illegal block (MOXLEY, Trae) 15 yards to the CS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+8
40.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+2
40.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+34
41.0%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Tyquwan Glass return for 34 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.4%
Ejiro Ederaine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
50.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jasen Oden Jr. for 5 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
50.2%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
50.6%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Joe Hansley, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+9
51.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 59 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 9 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2152% → 71%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
51.7%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+55
51.2%
Dustin Garrison run for 55 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
54.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
53.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Josiah Blandin for 9 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+13
53.1%
Kilton Anderson run for 13 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
54.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
70.9%
Dustin Garrison run for 11 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:1933% → 32%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
66.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 14 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
65.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+1
64.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 1 yd to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
64.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
64.5%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
50
+24
63.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 24 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
62.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-3
62.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 25 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
63.7%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
67.9%
Wyatt Bryan 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3973% → 60%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
74.4%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+61
60.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 41 yds , Joe Hansley returns for 61 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
62.2%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
49.0%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+10
48.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+3
47.8%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
49.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+21
49.3%
Marteze Waller run for 21 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
51.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
51.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
50.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Da'Mari Scott, broken up by Braylin ScottSimilar
Q3 14:38
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
48.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
50.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Deionte Gaines for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
51.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Kivon Cartwright, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+12
52.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 12 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-5
51.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Kevin Nutt Jr.) to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
52.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.5%
Kilton Anderson run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
57.0%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
55.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
54.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
53.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 40 yds , Joe Hansley returns for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0845% → 45%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
53.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
53.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
52.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
53.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
54.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds, downed at the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
57.4%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 6
0
57.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+34
55.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 34 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
61.4%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+1
61.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-5
59.0%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Martavius Foster for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
56.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 37 yds, downed at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3043% → 69%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.0%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
55.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 6 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+15
52.6%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
51.5%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+39
30.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 39 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2337% → 70%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
37.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 17 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
40.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 21 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
42.6%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+20
42.4%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for 20 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
45.4%
Kilton Anderson run for no gain to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-1
45.4%
Kilton Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+16
42.1%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for 16 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.6%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:5543% → 74%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
57.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+20
55.3%
Rashard Higgins run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
54.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+6
51.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
51.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+24
25.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 24 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
34.7%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.0%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
36.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Chad Olsen, broken up by Nick JanuskaSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
34.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Martavius FosterSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
32.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Joe Hansley at the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
29.8%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
28.4%
Jasen Oden Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
29.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Jordon Vaden, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+31
32.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 31 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0040% → 32%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
40.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for no gain to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
39.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Chad Olsen for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-1
35.8%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 49 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
31.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 31 yds, downed at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28END OF GAME
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:0075% → 92%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
25.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
24.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+14
24.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
21.7%
MATTHEWS, Izzy rush for 8 yards to the FS47 (HELMUTH, George), PENALTY CS holding (ZERBLIS, Fred) 10 yards to the CS35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+8
25.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+12
16.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
14.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
13.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-2
7.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 13
OPP 35
-1
8.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:58
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+27.5
TD · Q4 10:03
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 24 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-26.2
TD · Q3 1:27
Izzy Matthews run for 39 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com