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AF

Air Force 35 at New Mexico 47

UNM
2015 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2015 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:09 · Zack Rogers 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior−5.3Home team on offense+12.5Score differential+1.8Garbage-time factor+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:30: Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +18.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:52: Richard McQuarley run for 44 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +20.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:26: Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +26.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:08: Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +23.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:57: Jhurell Pressley 13 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick) — UNM win probability +24.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 6:06AF 4th & 8 at AF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:10UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38AF 4th & 8 at UNM 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:40AF 4th & 4 at AF 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:16AF 4th & 2 at AF 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:40UNM 4th & 9 at AF 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.0
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:30UNM 4th & 16 at UNM 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−4.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:55UNM 4th & 19 at AF 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−3.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:46UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:09UNM 4th & 8 at AF 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−8.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:09AF 4th & 8 at AF 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:42UNM 4th & 1 at AF 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−4.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−11.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:17UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:19AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:08UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:01UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:30AF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:52UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:30AF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:26AF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:01UNM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:08AF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:57UNM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:4326% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
25.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
25.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 7 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
25.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
25.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+57
28.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 57 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5872% → 71%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.7%
Timothy McVey run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
27.6%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
27.6%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
27.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
27.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
27.5%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+12
27.5%
Karson Roberts run for 12 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
27.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
27.4%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
27.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+16
27.5%
Garrett Brown run for 16 yds to the NMex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.7%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
33.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
32.8%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
32.8%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
33.4%
Steve Brosy punt for 35 yds, downed at the NMex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
34.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
34.0%
Dameon Gamblin run for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
34.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
33.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
34.9%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
34.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.5%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
34.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 14 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
33.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 47Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
33.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
34.3%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Daniel HenrySimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
35.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3538% → 37%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for no gain to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
38.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
37.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
37.1%
Zack Rogers punt for 55 yds, downed at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
39.0%
Karson Roberts run for 23 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
38.2%
Karson Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
37.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+1
37.8%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
38.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 14 yds, downed at the NMex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1443% → 54%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+45
42.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 45 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
43.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
54.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 16 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4550% → 49%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.0%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
49.8%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
49.7%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
51.3%
Luke Strebel punt for 49 yds , Carlos Wiggins returns for 4 yds to the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:2652% → 71%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
51.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
51.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+58
51.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Reece White for 58 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
53.7%
David Anaya run for 6 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
53.7%
David Anaya run for 2 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
52.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
59.3%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 5Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
59.3%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
71.1%
Zack Rogers 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
53.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2956% → 75%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
55.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+1
55.1%
David Anaya run for 1 yd to the NMex 44Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+12
54.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 12 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
74.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 44 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
68.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.9%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
70.3%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
70.3%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Timothy McVeySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.1%
Luke Strebel punt for 43 yds, downed at the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-4
72.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 19Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
71.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+9
70.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 52 yds , Garrett Brown returns for 9 yds to the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.6%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Nias MartinSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
76.1%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-1
76.2%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Ryan Santos return for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 4:5182% → 93%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
50
+1
81.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
81.7%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+15
81.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Romell Jordan for 15 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
81.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to David Anaya for 18 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
81.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
81.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-10
81.3%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+41
92.8%
Zack Rogers 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.2%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
92.3%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Cranston Jones return for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
93.7%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 14
OWN 26
-4
93.6%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 22Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+4
93.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+35
93.2%
Zack Rogers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the NEWMEXICO 34 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the AFA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
78.8%
Timothy McVey run for 61 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
84.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
84.7%
David Anaya run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
83.9%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for 9 yds to the NMex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:2219% → 45%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
80.7%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+6
79.1%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
81.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
54.7%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24MISSED FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1771% → 74%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
70.6%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Carlos Wiggins for 44 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
74.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
74.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
72.9%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
74.2%
Zack Rogers 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
66.0%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
66.9%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+4
68.6%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
68.8%
Luke Strebel punt for 47 yds, downed at the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 6:4179% → 96%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
78.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 2 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+20
78.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 20 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
81.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+14
81.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 14 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
81.6%
Jhurell Pressley run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
81.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
80.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+1
79.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
82.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 23 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
82.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Lamar Jordan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:537% → 32%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
92.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
68.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.6%
Jhurell Pressley 13 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 29INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
94.7%
Karson Roberts sacked by Dakota Cox for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+19
94.8%
Karson Roberts pass intercepted Donnie Duncan return for 19 yds to the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 30Uncategorized
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:1197% → 98%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
96.8%
David Anaya run for 1 yd to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
97.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
97.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
97.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:26
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 26 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-26.5
TD · Q4 2:57
Jhurell Pressley 13 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)
+24.4
TD · Q4 3:08
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-23.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com