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SDSU

San Diego State 52 at UNLV 14

UNLV
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:16 · Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−0.7Pregame prior−27.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:40: Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:31: Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:43: Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:14: Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 14 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:57: Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 17 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK) — SDSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16UNLV 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:16UNLV 4th & 8 at SDSU 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:40SDSU 4th & 2 at UNLV 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SDSU 4th & 15 at SDSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:24UNLV 4th & 2 at SDSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:35UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:59SDSU 4th & 4 at SDSU 41, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:13SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:26UNLV 4th & 18 at UNLV 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:00UNLV 4th & 19 at UNLV 27, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:10SDSU 4th & 8 at SDSU 25, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:32UNLV 4th & 3 at SDSU 12, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:21SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:40SDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:31SDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:43SDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:14UNLV Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:57SDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:41UNLV Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:05SDSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
21.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 9 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+1
21.3%
Keith Whitely run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
21.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
21.3%
Kurt Palandech run for 4 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
21.3%
Xzaviar Campbell run for no gain to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
21.3%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Damontae Kazee at the SDSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5677% → 78%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
22.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Mikah Holder for 18 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+48
22.4%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 44 yds to the UNLV 8 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Tim Hough) to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
22.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the UNLV 3Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.9%
Maxwell Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3FUMBLE
12 plays · 34 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
22.4%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+16
22.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 16 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
22.6%
Kurt Palandech run for 7 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
22.7%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 1
50
0
22.7%
Keith Whitely run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 1
50
+1
22.5%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
22.7%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
22.9%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
22.9%
Keith Whitely run for 2 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
22.7%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+15
22.4%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Randy Ricks and Jake Fely for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 49 Kurt Palandech fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jon Sanchez , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:3178% → 80%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
22.3%
Chase Price run for 6 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
22.2%
Chase Price run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
22.3%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
22.3%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 13 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
22.2%
Chase Price run for 2 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+13
22.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 13 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
22.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 3 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
22.8%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to David Wells for 2 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
22.9%
Dakota Gordon run for 3 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.1%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
20.8%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 47 Lexington Thomas fumbled, forced by Tyler Morris, recovered by SDSt Malik Smith , return for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1680% → 80%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
19.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+1
19.6%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 1 yd to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-5
19.6%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
19.8%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Dakota GordonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
20.1%
Tanner Blain punt for 40 yds , Keith Whitely returns for no gain to the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
20.7%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the UNLV 13Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+6
20.6%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 6 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+12
20.6%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 12 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
20.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
20.9%
Kurt Palandech pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+15
20.8%
Kurt Palandech pass intercepted Kameron Kelly return for 15 yds to the UNLV 48 UNLV Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:5581% → 88%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
18.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 8 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+11
18.9%
Chase Price run for 11 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
18.9%
Chase Price run for 7 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
18.9%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Dakota Gordon for 4 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
18.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 5 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+7
18.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.8%
Dakota Gordon run for 2 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.2%
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
13.0%
Keith Whitely run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-5
12.8%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Calvin Munson for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+21
12.7%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 21 yds to the UNLV 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
13.6%
Kurt Palandech run for 13 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
13.9%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 4 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
14.0%
Keith Whitely run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
14.0%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
13.7%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Aaron Criswell, broken up by Na'im McGeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3888% → 91%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+60
12.5%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 60 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
8.1%
Kurt Palandech run for 8 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 2
OWN 36
-2
7.9%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
7.8%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Aaron CriswellSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
7.7%
Logan Yunker punt for 28 yds, downed at the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:0791% → 95%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
9.5%
Chase Price run for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
9.5%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Jemond Hazely for 11 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
9.4%
Chase Price run for 9 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+13
9.1%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Daniel Brunskill for 13 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
9.0%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Eric Judge for 6 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
6.2%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+10
6.2%
Chase Price run for 10 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
6.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
5.0%
Maxwell Smith run for 1 yd to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+29
5.1%
Donny Hageman 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
5.3%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 6 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
5.1%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
5.3%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Eric JudgeSimilar
Q3 14:59
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+19
5.8%
Tanner Blain punt for 34 yds , Keith Whitely returns for 19 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:447% → 8%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
6.7%
Kurt Palandech run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ryan Dunn) to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
7.6%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+20
7.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Aaron Criswell for 20 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
7.5%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Jake PhillipsSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
7.4%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 14Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
8.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 14 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
5.9%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
5.8%
Donnel Pumphrey run for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
5.9%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Donnel Pumphrey, broken up by Ryan McAleenanSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
6.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.4%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.3%
Kurt Palandech run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 26 Kurt Palandech fumbled, recovered by UNLV Kurt Palandech , return for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
6.3%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Keith Whitely for 10 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
6.6%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Jon Sanchez for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+28
6.4%
Kurt Palandech pass intercepted Parker Baldwin return for 28 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:4796% → 97%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
3.9%
Chase Price run for 4 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
3.9%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to David Wells, broken up by Blake RichmondSimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+17
3.2%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Chase Price for 17 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:243% → 1%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
2.6%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+15
2.5%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 15 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.7%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
2.6%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Kendal KeysSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-3
2.6%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Calvin Munson and Jon Sanchez for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 13
OWN 36
-5
2.5%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Kimble Jensen) to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 18
OWN 31
+66
0.9%
Logan Yunker punt for 35 yds , Damontae Kazee returns for 66 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:381% → 2%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
1.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 32 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
1.1%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
1.0%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+14
1.0%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 14 yds to the SDSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
1.2%
David Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 6Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.8%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Xzaviar Campbell for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicolai Bornand KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 60 yds · 8:2999% → 100%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
1.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 7 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
0.9%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
1.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
1.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+2
0.6%
Maxwell Smith pass complete to Rashaad Penny for 2 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
0.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
0.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+9
0.7%
Rashaad Penny run for 9 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
0.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
0.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 8 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.6%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
0.6%
Rashaad Penny run for 13 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.5%
Rashaad Penny run for no gain to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 16 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
0.2%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Kyle Kelley for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 29Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 17
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Xzaviar Campbell, broken up by Randy RicksSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 17
OWN 29
-2
0.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Xzaviar Campbell for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 19
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Logan Yunker punt for 50 yds, downed at the SDSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
0.2%
Marcus Stamps run for 2 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 2 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Rashaad Penny run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 3
OWN 30
-5
0.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, false start (Billy Vaughn Jr) to the SDSt 25Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Tanner Blain punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Keith Whitely at the UNLV 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
0.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 13 yds to the SDSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
0.1%
Kurt Palandech sacked by Julian Rochelin for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 16
50
+16
0.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Aaron Criswell for 16 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
0.2%
PALANDECH, Kurt pass incomplete to KEYS, Kendal, PENALTY SDSU personal foul (HALL, Noble) 15 yards to the SDSU19, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
0.2%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Kendal Keys for 7 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Brandon PresleySimilar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Kurt Palandech pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Derek BabiashSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+2
0.1%
Kurt Palandech pass complete to Xzaviar Campbell for 2 yds to the SDSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
0.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
0.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
0.1%
Rashaad Penny run for 6 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:31
Dakota Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 4:43
Donnel Pumphrey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q1 1:40
Donnel Pumphrey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
-2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com