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NEV

Nevada 27 at Utah State 31

USU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:55 · Alex Boy punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+30.9Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:16: James Butler run for 33 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +16.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:10: James Butler run for 60 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo PAT BLOCKED) — NEV win probability +13.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:25: Devante Mays run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK) — USU win probability +17.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 6:55: Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kyler Fackrell for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK) — USU win probability +18.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. FG · Q4 0:35: Jake Thompson 42 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +18.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:55USU 4th & 3 at NEV 11, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:55NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:11USU 4th & 3 at NEV 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 2 at USU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−0.7
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:10USU 4th & 10 at NEV 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    49.7%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:10USU 4th & 1 at USU 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.3%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:59NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−3.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:25NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−3.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:22USU 4th & 10 at USU 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:58NEV 4th & 20 at NEV 8, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−5.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 16 at USU 36, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:10USU 4th & 9 at NEV 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    45.3%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:55NEV 4th & 1 at USU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%−7.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:35USU 4th & 13 at NEV 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−12.4
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−30.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:31NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:36NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:22NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:07USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:16NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:10NEV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:05USU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:25USU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0582% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
82.3%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
82.3%
Devante Mays run for 6 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
82.3%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
82.3%
Devante Mays run for 6 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-2
82.3%
Nick Vigil run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
81.7%
Brock Warren 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
81.5%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+2
81.4%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
81.4%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
81.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 10 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
81.3%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
81.3%
Tyler Stewart run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
81.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
81.5%
Alex Boy punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4480% → 78%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
80.4%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
80.4%
Devante Mays run for 8 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+25
78.1%
Kent Myers pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Dobrich return for 25 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4MISSED FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 5:1779% → 75%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
78.5%
Chuckie Keeton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 38 Chuckie Keeton fumbled, recovered by UthSt Chuckie KeetonSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-3
78.3%
Devante Mays run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+19
77.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 4 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside (15 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
78.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 6 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+11
78.8%
Chuckie Keeton run for 11 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
79.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 9 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
78.8%
Nick Vigil run for 5 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
79.0%
Chuckie Keeton run for no gain to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
79.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete, broken up by Ian SeauSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+7
78.8%
KEETON,Chuckie pass incomplete, PENALTY NEV personal foul 7 yards to the NEV8, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
79.0%
Devante Mays run for 4 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
79.0%
Chuckie Keeton run for 1 yd to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
75.1%
Brock Warren 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:1126% → 28%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+15
74.5%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, J., PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the NEV37, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
74.0%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
73.7%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+10
71.9%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
71.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
71.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
71.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 36
0
72.3%
Alex Boy punt for 29 yds, downed at the UthSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
71.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 8 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+3
71.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
71.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 4 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
71.6%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+14
71.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass intercepted Trae Wells return for 14 yds to the UthSt 39 UTAH ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1033% → 43%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
67.5%
Don Jackson run for 18 yds to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.3%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
67.3%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 2Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:4534% → 52%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
66.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+2
65.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
65.5%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
65.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
65.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
50
-1
65.0%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+6
65.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+13
65.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 13 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
64.7%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-3
64.6%
James Butler run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+33
48.1%
James Butler run for 33 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.5%
Chuckie Keeton run for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
52.5%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
52.1%
Chuckie Keeton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
51.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nevad 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0952% → 54%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
47.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
46.5%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+7
46.5%
Don Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
45.5%
Don Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 12Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 13
OWN 12
-1
45.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:5056% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.2%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+60
30.3%
James Butler run for 60 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:0536% → 46%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.1%
Chuckie Keeton sacked by Rykeem Yates for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+16
35.9%
Chuckie Keeton run for 16 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
38.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+8
36.3%
Devante Mays run for 8 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
38.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Elijah MoodySimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
38.2%
Chuckie Keeton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 45 Chuckie Keeton fumbled, forced by Ian Seau, recovered by UthSt Chuckie Keeton , return for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+8
39.1%
Nick Vigil run for 8 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
39.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Ahki MuhammadSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
39.8%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 8 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+6
40.4%
Chuckie Keeton run for 6 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
40.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 16 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
40.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Devonte RobinsonSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
40.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 12 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.6%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
35.7%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
35.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
36.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+18
37.5%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 32 , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 18 yds to the UTAHST 46 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:4140% → 59%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
39.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 9 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+10
40.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Kennedy Williams for 10 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
42.0%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 9 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
42.5%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
42.1%
Devante Mays run for 35 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.1%
Devante Mays run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
51.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.5%
Alex Boy punt for 39 yds , Hunter Sharp returns for 13 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 51%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
55.9%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Asauni RufusSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
55.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Hunter Sharp, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
52.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Faigofie FaaitualaSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
51.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0053% → 49%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
47.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 19Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+4
47.9%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-15
47.7%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Torrey Green for a loss of 15 yards to the Nevad 8Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 20
OWN 8
0
50.7%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for no gain to the Nevad 45 Andrew Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by Nevad Randy UzomaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4259% → 58%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
41.3%
Don Jackson run for 14 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
40.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
39.9%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
40.1%
JACKSON, Don rush for no gain to the USU30 (FACKRELL,Kyler;NIELSEN,Jordan), PENALTY NEV holding 10 yards to the USU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+2
41.2%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+2
37.4%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
38.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
41.7%
Alex Boy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
14 plays · 55 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
44.6%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+4
45.2%
Devante Mays run for 4 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+1
43.4%
Nick Vigil run for 1 yd to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
45.4%
Chuckie Keeton run for 4 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+11
45.3%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 11 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
46.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+16
46.1%
Chuckie Keeton run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
50
+2
50.4%
Chuckie Keeton run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
50.7%
Devante Mays run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
50.3%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
50.9%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
53.0%
Chuckie Keeton run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 38 Chuckie Keeton fumbled, recovered by UthSt Chuckie KeetonSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
49.7%
Chuckie Keeton pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for no gain to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
45.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FUMBLE TD
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
63.8%
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kyler Fackrell for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0037% → 40%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
62.8%
James Butler run for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
61.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
59.6%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+6
59.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 6 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
58.0%
Don Jackson run for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
56.7%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
57.2%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
60.5%
James Butler run for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:2272% → 93%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
72.4%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
74.7%
Devante Mays run for no gain to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+32
73.8%
Devante Mays run for 32 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
78.9%
Devante Mays run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 14
OPP 25
-1
77.9%
Devante Mays run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+2
74.8%
Chuckie Keeton run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
93.3%
Jake Thompson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
90.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
91.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Deshane HinesSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 3 yds to the Nevad 25 lat. to Tyler Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 25 lat. to Randy Uzoma for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 25 lat. to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds Jerico Richardson fumbled, recovered by UthSt Nick VigilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 6:55
Tyler Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kyler Fackrell for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK)
+18.5
FG · Q4 0:35
Jake Thompson 42 yd FG GOOD
+18.5
TD · Q3 6:25
Devante Mays run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Thompson KICK)
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com