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FRES

Fresno State 10 at BYU 52

BYU
2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Garrett Swanson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+27.9Home team on offense+18.6Score differential+12.2Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:11: Kody Kroening 28 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +0.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:25: Francis Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:21: Zack Greenlee pass intercepted for a TD Kai Nacua return for 32 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson PAT MISSED) — BYU win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:11: Moroni Laulu-Pututau 18 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Tanner Mangum Pass to Terenn Houk for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:59: Francis Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK) — BYU win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:43FRES 4th & 6 at BYU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:56BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:28FRES 4th & 24 at FRES 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:37BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 24, tied
    Close callWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:11FRES 4th & 8 at BYU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:42BYU 4th & 5 at FRES 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:36FRES 4th & 17 at FRES 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:25FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:28BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:07FRES 4th & 5 at BYU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:02BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 13, up 21
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:54FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:17FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 6, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:15FRES 4th & 3 at BYU 13, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:10FRES 4th & 11 at BYU 32, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:27BYU 4th & 7 at FRES 46, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:25BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:21BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:11BYU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:59BYU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:06BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52BYU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:22BYU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:42FRES Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.4%
Algernon Brown run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+21
94.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 44 yds , Da'Mari Scott returns for 21 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.0%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
94.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
94.0%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
94.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+23
93.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 23 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
93.9%
Algernon Brown run for 7 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
93.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 5 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
93.9%
Francis Bernard run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+3
93.9%
Tanner Mangum run for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
93.9%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 yds, downed at the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
93.3%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+18
93.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 18 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
93.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-12
93.3%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 12 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 24
OWN 25
-3
93.4%
Garrett Swanson punt for 51 yds , Michael Shelton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
92.8%
Tanner Mangum run for 3 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Jonny Linehan run for no gain to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:338% → 9%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
92.2%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Marteze Waller for 4 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
92.2%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
92.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 6 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
92.2%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
92.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
92.3%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
91.5%
Kody Kroening 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:2491% → 91%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
91.3%
Tanner Mangum run for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+9
91.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 9 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
91.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitchell Juergens for 12 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
91.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 11 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
91.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+12
91.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 12 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
91.9%
Francis Bernard run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
91.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Terenn HoukSimilar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
91.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
90.9%
Trevor Samson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
90.4%
Dustin Garrison run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
90.0%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-4
90.3%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 17
OWN 35
0
90.6%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 17
OWN 35
+24
90.7%
Garrett Swanson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 26 FRESNO ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:3691% → 92%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
90.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+45
90.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 45 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
90.8%
Algernon Brown run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
90.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 9 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Francis Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.4%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
91.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+21
91.7%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Justin Johnson for 21 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
91.2%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
91.4%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
91.7%
Garrett Swanson punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
91.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 7 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 13
0
91.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+6
90.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Remington Peck for 6 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
91.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 9 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+10
91.5%
Algernon Brown run for 10 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.5%
Francis Bernard run for no gain to the BYU 34 Francis Bernard fumbled, forced by Kyrie Wilson,Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+11
91.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 11 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
91.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
91.1%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:509% → 7%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.6%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+32
93.1%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted for a TD Kai Nacua return for 32 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
92.9%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+15
92.6%
BYU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
92.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+27
92.9%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted Fred Warner return for 27 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.0%
Moroni Laulu-Pututau 18 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Tanner Mangum Pass to Terenn Houk for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15MISSED FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 4:564% → 3%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
96.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Justin Johnson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
96.4%
GREENLEE, Zack pass incomplete to BROWN, Stratton, PENALTY BYU pass interference 15 yards to the FS45, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.1%
BYU Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 5
50
+4
95.9%
Marteze Waller run for 4 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
95.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+8
96.0%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 8 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
96.0%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
96.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Justin Johnson for 10 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.7%
Zack Greenlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
95.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-2
96.5%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
96.6%
Kody Kroening 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Bronson Kaufusi Bronson Kaufusi return for no gain to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0598% → 98%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon Blackmon, broken up by Charles WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
97.7%
BROWN,Algernon rush for 5 yards to the BYU25 (HUGHES, Brandon), PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+4
97.7%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-1
97.6%
Algernon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+11
97.6%
Algernon Brown run for 11 yds to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.0%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
97.0%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Bronson Kaufusi for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Garrett Swanson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3798% → 100%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
97.7%
Algernon Brown run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
97.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 7 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
97.7%
Algernon Brown run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
97.7%
Francis Bernard run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+14
97.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 14 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitchell JuergensSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
97.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Terenn Houk for 4 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+7
97.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 7 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Francis Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Marteze Waller for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+9
99.5%
Zack Greenlee run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+10
99.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 10 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete, broken up by Bronson KaufusiSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 56 yds, downed at the BYU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.7%
Riley Burt run for 3 yds to the BYU 8Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+33
99.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 33 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.7%
BYU Penalty, sideline interference (-5 Yards) to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+7
99.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Colby Pearson for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
99.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Francis Bernard for 12 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Devon BlackmonSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.8%
Algernon Brown run for 45 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.8%
Dustin Garrison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Michael DavisSimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-8
99.8%
Zack Greenlee sacked by Sae Tautu for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 19
OWN 6
0
99.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews, broken up by Jamal EllisSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-15
99.8%
BYU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 25
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Ejiro Ederaine for 0 yards to the BYU 42 Tanner Mangum fumbled, recovered by FrsSt George Helmuth , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.8%
Marteze Waller run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+20
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 20 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 3
OPP 13
0
99.8%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.8%
Riley Burt run for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+13
99.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Nick Kurtz for 13 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+54
99.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 54 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Remington Peck pass complete to Terenn Houk for 15 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+29
99.9%
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted Kai Nacua return for 29 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.9%
Beau Hoge run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+11
99.9%
Beau Hoge pass complete to Devon Blackmon for 11 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Nate Carter run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
100.0%
Marteze Waller run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Marteze Waller run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
100.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
100.0%
Marteze Waller run for 9 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Kilton Anderson run for 29 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
HOGE,Beau pass incomplete to HENDERSON,Kurt, PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BYU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-1
99.9%
Riley Burt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-2
99.9%
Riley Burt run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31 Riley Burt fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FrsSt Brandon HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
100.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-3
100.0%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
100.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
100.0%
Riley Burt run for 6 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+13
100.0%
Riley Burt run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
100.0%
Riley Burt run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+1
100.0%
Riley Burt run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Jonny Linehan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
100.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+1
100.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+43
100.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Stratton Brown for 43 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Stratton Brown, broken up by Jordan PreatorSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+11
100.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 11 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:11
Moroni Laulu-Pututau 18 Yd pass from Tanner Mangum (Tanner Mangum Pass to Terenn Houk for Two-Point Conversion)
+4.1
TD · Q2 7:21
Zack Greenlee pass intercepted for a TD Kai Nacua return for 32 yds for a TD, (Trevor Samson PAT MISSED)
+2.4
TD · Q3 9:59
Francis Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Samson KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com