2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:02 · Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:24: Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 8 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:53: Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +6.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:47: Wyatt Bryan 22 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:54: Jhurell Pressley run for 36 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +21.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:41: Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Stevens pass to Joe Hansley for Two-Point Conversion) — CSU win probability +35.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 8:39CSU 4th & 12 at UNM 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snapGo for it49.4%−1.121% to convertField goalTheir call50.4%77% to makePunt46.5%−4.0average punt
- Q2 8:39UNM 4th & 12 at CSU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snapGo for it49.8%−0.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%average punt
- Q3 12:47CSU 4th & 5 at UNM 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snapGo for it55.6%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call55.8%92% to makePunt46.8%−9.0average punt
- Q3 12:47UNM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt39.1%−3.0average punt
- Q3 8:47CSU 4th & 1 at UNM 28, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.0%71% to convertField goal41.5%−3.560% to makePunt33.5%−11.5average punt
- Q4 13:25UNM 4th & 5 at CSU 5, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snapGo for it60.8%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call61.0%92% to makePunt46.4%−14.5average punt
- Q4 6:02CSU 4th & 19 at UNM 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snapGo for it79.6%−2.611% to convertField goalTheir call82.2%45% to makePunt80.8%−1.4average punt
- Q4 6:02UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.3%−4.8average punt
- Q4 6:02UNM 4th & 5 at CSU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt19.9%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 14:06CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:53UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.8%97% to makeGo for two47.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:24CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.6%97% to makeGo for two54.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:53UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.6%97% to makeGo for two48.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:54UNM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:41CSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick68.3%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call68.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 2INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
CSUDrive 3TD1 play · 30 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1348% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD14 plays · 89 yds · 5:2551% → 55%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
49.4%
DAWKINS, Dalyn rush for 1 yard to the CS12 (SANTOS, Ryan), PENALTY CS holding (MONTES, Christian) 5 yards to the CS6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+15
49.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 15 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
48.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Steven Walker for 5 yds Steven Walker fumbled, forced by Daniel Henry, , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
50
+41
48.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 41 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
44.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 8 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6TD12 plays · 77 yds · 5:2546% → 53%
CSUDrive 7MISSED FG11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1450% → 49%
Q2 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
50.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 13 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
48.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 31 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-5
48.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Rashard Higgins) to the NMex 19Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
50.9%
Wyatt Bryan 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nik D'Avanzo N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FG19 plays · 90 yds · 4:0450% → 59%
Q2 2:50
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+7
50.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+8
50.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Kivon Cartwright for 8 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
48.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 16 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
46.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 7 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
45.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Jordon Vaden, broken up by Daniel HenrySimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
46.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 9 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+16
46.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Joe Hansley for 16 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
44.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 7 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+5
44.8%
STEVENS, Nick sacked for loss of 6 yards to the NM18 (BYRD, Markel), fumble by STEVENS, Nick recovered by CS DAWKINS, Dalyn at NM18, PENALTY NM offside defense (BYRD, Markel) 5 yards to the NM7, 1ST DOWN CS, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10FG8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1355% → 62%
UNMDrive 11TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5341% → 62%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
41.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 26 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
41.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
44.7%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Kevin Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+16
40.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 16 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13MISSED FG10 plays · 67 yds · 5:2860% → 63%
Q4 13:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
62.5%
Zack Rogers 23 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by DeAndre Elliott DeAndre Elliott return for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14TD13 plays · 87 yds · 4:4440% → 83%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
60.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Rashard Higgins for 10 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+14
60.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Jordon Vaden for 14 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
56.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Cody Baker) to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 5
OWN 44
0
55.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Rashard Higgins, broken up by Nias MartinSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Stevens pass to Joe Hansley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
26.1%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Kevin Davis return for 17 yds to the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16MISSED FG4 plays · -9 yds · 2:2383% → 82%
Q4 8:25
3RD & 14
OPP 30
-5
18.4%
Nick Stevens sacked by Kimmie Carson for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 35 Nick Stevens fumbled, recovered by ColSt Nick Stevens , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17INT11 plays · 10 yds · 4:4223% → 15%
CSUDrive 18Uncategorized8 plays · 18 yds · 0:1790% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:41
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Stevens pass to Joe Hansley for Two-Point Conversion)
-35.6
TD · Q3 8:54
Jhurell Pressley run for 36 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
+21.6
TD · Q2 12:53
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
+6.1