Try the model
SJSU

San José State 34 at Nevada 37

NEV
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+6.2NEV 63.3%Brent Zuzo 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q2 7:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:54 · Brent Zuzo 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 55Home team on offense+7.1Garbage-time factor+1.9Pregame prior−2.6Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:54: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 24 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +17.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:21: Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +27.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:36: Don Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +44.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Austin Lopez 35 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 11 yds for a TD — NEV win probability +43.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39SJSU 4th & 4 at NEV 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:14NEV 4th & 4 at SJSU 32, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:22NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.6%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:22NEV 4th & 1 at SJSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−1.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:54NEV 4th & 5 at SJSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:38NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:33SJSU 4th & 12 at SJSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:02NEV 4th & 1 at SJSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.1%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:21NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:49SJSU 4th & 7 at NEV 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−13.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:16NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:12NEV 4th & 3 at SJSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−5.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:48NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:38SJSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:23SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:55SJSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:37NEV Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54NEV Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:21SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:36NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−7.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1654% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
45.8%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+4
45.8%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-3
46.2%
Kenny Potter sacked by Korey Rush for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 16Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+17
46.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 59 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 17 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:1547% → 51%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
46.6%
JACKSON, Don rush for no gain to the NEV42 (IRVING, Isaiah;TAGO, Christian), PENALTY SJ offside 5 yards to the NEV47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+7
46.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
46.7%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
46.7%
Don Jackson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
46.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
46.7%
Don Jackson run for 9 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
46.7%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
46.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the SJSt 6Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
46.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the SJSt 5Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
50.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:0950% → 49%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+45
49.6%
Hansell Wilson run for 45 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
48.7%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
48.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+7
49.2%
Kenny Potter run for 7 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
51.3%
Austin Lopez 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2552% → 54%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
52.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
52.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+12
51.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
52.8%
James Butler run for 21 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
53.0%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
53.0%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
52.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
54.4%
Brent Zuzo 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1447% → 44%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
53.5%
Kenny Potter run for 17 yds to the SJSt 49 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, personal foul (Keoni Taylor) to the SJSt 34Similar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
53.5%
Thomas Tucker run for 2 yds to the SJSt 36Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
53.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+11
53.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 11 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-12
52.7%
Kenny Potter sacked by Ian Seau for a loss of 12 yards to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+12
55.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 12 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
54.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete, broken up by Malik ReedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
55.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 6:2856% → 63%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
56.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 17 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
56.6%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
57.2%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
56.8%
Tyler Stewart run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
56.2%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
57.3%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
57.2%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+7
56.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 7 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
57.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 4 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
57.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
57.1%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the SJSt 30Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+15
56.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 15 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
57.7%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
57.7%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
57.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Jimmy PruittSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
63.3%
Brent Zuzo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0640% → 46%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
60.1%
Thomas Tucker run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+8
60.3%
Kenny Potter run for 8 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
60.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the Nevad 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
60.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 11Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
60.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the Nevad 9Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
54.3%
Tim Crawley 0 Yd Fumble Return (Austin Lopez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
56.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to James ButlerSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
54.8%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Eugene Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 22 NEVADA Penalty, intentional grounding (Tyler Stewart) to the Nevad 22Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
53.9%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:1945% → 60%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
54.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
53.5%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 38Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+12
55.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
50
+3
52.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
52.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+32
53.0%
Kenny Potter run for 32 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
51.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
51.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell Wilson, broken up by Lenny JonesSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
45.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.2%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
43.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Vincente Miles Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
42.5%
Alex Boy punt for 32 yds , Tyler Ervin returns for 3 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:3860% → 72%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
40.5%
Thomas Tucker run for 3 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+28
40.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 28 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
38.9%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
27.6%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 23 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1830% → 46%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.6%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
29.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.8%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
30.3%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
31.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+58
45.8%
James Butler run for 58 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
42.8%
Thomas Tucker run for 4 yds to the SJSt 15Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+5
42.8%
POTTER, Kenny pass complete to CRAWLEY, Tim for 3 yards to the SJ18, PENALTY NEV offside (RUSH, Korey) 5 yards to the SJ20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+8
41.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
42.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
41.6%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-8
42.4%
Tim Crawley run for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 26Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+15
45.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 58 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 15 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 6:0843% → 66%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
42.7%
Don Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
45.0%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
44.6%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
45.2%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
46.2%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 3
50
+2
45.7%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+4
44.2%
Don Jackson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
46.8%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+11
46.8%
Don Jackson run for 11 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
48.9%
Don Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+3
48.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
66.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 24 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3338% → 72%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Shane SmithSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 7 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
62.2%
Kenny Potter run for 7 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
60.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 21 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
57.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Thomas Tucker for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+10
56.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 10 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
54.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 14 yds to the Nevad 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
27.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.9%
Don Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
37.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.8%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
36.4%
Alex Boy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 7:0069% → 89%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
31.1%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 19Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
31.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Hansell WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+17
33.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 17 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
29.7%
Thomas Tucker run for 3 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
28.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
28.7%
Kenny Potter run for 9 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
27.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+5
27.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
27.5%
Kenny Potter run for 8 yds to the Nevad 30 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, illegal block (Hansell Wilson) to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 12
OPP 40
+9
27.5%
Thomas Tucker run for 9 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+8
25.8%
Thomas Tucker run for 8 yds to the Nevad 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
25.8%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the Nevad 23Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
26.3%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
13.1%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler ErvinSimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
10.9%
Austin Lopez 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 2:1320% → 64%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
20.3%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
19.2%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
18.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
21.0%
Don Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+11
21.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
50
0
23.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Cleveland Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
50
0
22.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 10
50
+7
20.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+4
12.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 4 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
14.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 27 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
19.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+10
19.1%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to GIPSON, Jarred, PENALTY SJ pass interference (MILES, Vincente) 10 yards to the SJ2, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.8%
Don Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:3654% → 63%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
47.0%
Kenny Potter run for 21 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
42.0%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+17
42.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 17 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+51
37.4%
Austin Lopez 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ahki Muhammad Elijah Mitchell return for 14 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
40.5%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the Nevad 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
43.0%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
27.6%
Austin Lopez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.3%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+12
41.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
84.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 11 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:36
Don Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+44.7
TD · OT 0:00
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 11 yds for a TD
+43.3
TD · Q4 11:21
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
-27.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com