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USU

Utah State 28 at Air Force 35

AF
2015 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2015 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Aaron Dalton punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Pregame prior−2.6Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Karson Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +11.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:44: Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 74 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +12.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:27: Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 39 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +13.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:28: Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +14.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Kent Myers pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 44 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +14.0 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 7USU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:08AF 4th & 2 at AF 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 16 at USU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09AF 4th & 4 at AF 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35USU 4th & 8 at USU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:14AF 4th & 8 at USU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28USU 4th & 5 at USU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:44USU 4th & 11 at USU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:52AF 4th & 7 at USU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−1.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:08USU 4th & 4 at USU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:20AF 4th & 1 at AF 19, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at USU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−3.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−13.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:20USU 4th & 8 at USU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:52AF 4th & 5 at USU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:48USU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−4.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:47USU 4th & 17 at AF 18, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:13AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:45USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:28AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:13USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:40AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:44AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:27USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:28AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:00USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
47.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 5 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
47.4%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5648% → 50%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
47.8%
Tyler Williams run for 13 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
47.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
48.0%
Bryan Driskell run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+27
47.9%
Karson Roberts run for 27 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
50.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2851% → 52%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
49.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 9 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
49.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+21
49.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 21 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
47.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 41 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1749% → 55%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
48.6%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
48.4%
Tyler Williams run for 21 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
49.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+9
48.9%
Garrett Brown run for 9 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+8
49.3%
Karson Roberts run for 8 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
49.3%
Tyler Williams run for 14 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
49.5%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 20 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
49.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Tyler Williams) to the UthSt 7Similar
Q1 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
49.5%
Tyler Williams run for 4 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
49.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Alex Norton) to the UthSt 8Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
49.5%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1546% → 52%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+22
54.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 22 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
47.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 48 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
50.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-4
50.4%
Bryan Driskell run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+6
49.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+18
49.4%
Steve Brosy punt for 37 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 18 yds to the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:1952% → 50%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
47.9%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
47.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-7
48.5%
Kent Myers sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
50.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
50.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
50.9%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
50.0%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 10 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
50.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+1
51.9%
Garrett Brown run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+1
51.2%
Bryan Driskell run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-5
50.2%
Steve Brosy punt for 36 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
50.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 5 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-3
49.8%
Devante Mays run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
50.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+8
51.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 30 , Garrett Brown returns for 8 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
52.1%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Timothy McVey for 26 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
54.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
54.2%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+4
53.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
52.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Sevrin Remmo) to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
51.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 33 yds, downed at the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
49.6%
Devante Mays run for no gain to the UthSt 9Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
49.8%
Devante Mays run for 4 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+19
50.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 19 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
48.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 4 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
48.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
48.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
50.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:0753% → 68%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
52.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 3 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
52.6%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Garrett BrownSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+22
51.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 22 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
55.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
50
+19
55.5%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 19 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
56.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+1
56.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
56.4%
Bryan Driskell run for 10 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Nick Vigil) to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.7%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13INT
13 plays · 28 yds · 0:3836% → 35%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
63.2%
Kent Myers run for 7 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+11
62.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 11 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
64.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Tonny LindseySimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
65.0%
Kent Myers pass intercepted, touchback. TEAM return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1665% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.4%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.1%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+74
77.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 74 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.1%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Devante MaysSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
77.4%
Kent Myers sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. and Ryan Watson for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
78.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:2380% → 77%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
79.7%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+26
79.5%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 26 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
80.5%
Tyler Williams run for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
79.2%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-1
78.3%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
77.3%
TEAM punt for 26 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
78.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 18 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
77.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Brandon Swindall, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
78.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Brandon Swindall for 4 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+2
77.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 2 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
77.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.4%
Karson Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
80.2%
Tyler Williams run for 6 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+3
79.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
78.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 2:0121% → 35%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
78.6%
Devante Mays run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
78.9%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+10
78.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 10 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
65.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 39 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5973% → 91%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Bryan DriskellSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+31
71.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 31 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
76.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
76.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+5
76.5%
Bryan Driskell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+3
75.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
76.5%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 19 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
76.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 3Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2814% → 31%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Devante Mays run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
83.9%
Devante Mays run for 14 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
83.5%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
82.9%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
68.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 44 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 65 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
79.8%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
79.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.5%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
81.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
82.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+19
82.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 19 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
82.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
82.9%
Tyler Williams run for 7 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
82.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
82.9%
Bryan Driskell run for 6 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
81.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
0
80.7%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the UthSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
79.0%
Devante Mays run for 1 yd to the UthSt 11Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
79.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 2 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+12
80.6%
Kent Myers run for 12 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
81.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:5787% → 93%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
86.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
86.6%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.8%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Bryan DriskellSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.7%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 5 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+15
86.1%
BROSY, Steve punt 39 yards to the USU22, PENALTY USU roughing the kicker 15 yards to the USU46, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
88.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
88.6%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
93.4%
Bryan Driskell run for no gain to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
92.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25DOWNS
17 plays · 62 yds · 1:5812% → 8%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
88.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 22 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Tonny LindseySimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
86.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 2
50
0
84.5%
Devante Mays run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
50
+5
89.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 5 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.6%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
88.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Hunter SharpSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+21
89.0%
Kent Myers run for 21 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Brandon SwindallSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
84.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+13
86.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 13 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
83.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-7
83.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Alex Hansen and D.J. Dunn Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
90.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 17
OPP 18
0
91.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:28
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q3 0:00
Kent Myers pass complete to Devonte Robinson for 44 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 4:27
Kent Myers pass complete to Hunter Sharp for 39 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com