Try the model
UNM

New Mexico 21 at San José State 31

SJSU
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · CEFCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:53 · Zack Rogers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+22.3Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:25: Diquon Woodhouse run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +11.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:13: Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 35 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:05: Kenny Potter run for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK) — SJSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:46: Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK) — UNM win probability +8.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:53UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15SJSU 4th & 13 at UNM 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:34SJSU 4th & 1 at UNM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26UNM 4th & 5 at SJSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:13UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 4 at SJSU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−2.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:07SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:05UNM 4th & 9 at SJSU 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:25SJSU 4th & 4 at UNM 25, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:52SJSU 4th & 2 at UNM 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:19SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:34UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:25UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:13SJSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:05SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:46UNM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4173% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 29Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
73.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2627% → 27%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
73.2%
Austin Apodaca run for 5 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-2
73.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+1
73.3%
Austin Apodaca run for 1 yd to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
73.4%
Zack Rogers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Ervin at the SJSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
73.5%
Kenny Potter sacked by Taylor Timmons for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 23Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+9
73.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the SJSt 32Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
73.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
73.6%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 6 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
73.7%
Malik Roberson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
73.6%
Malik Roberson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
73.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 5 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
73.7%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+12
73.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Chris Kearney for 12 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.8%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-2
73.7%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 12
OPP 38
-1
73.6%
Kenny Potter sacked by Maurice Daniels for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
73.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 18 yds, downed at the NMex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
71.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 79 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
71.8%
Malik Roberson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
71.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 24Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+12
71.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 12 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
72.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Winston for 7 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+9
72.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 9 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
72.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for no gain to the NMex 48Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
72.4%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 12
50
+11
72.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tyler Ervin for 11 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
72.1%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the NMex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:4931% → 32%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.5%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Austin ApodacaSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
69.6%
Austin Apodaca run for 5 yds to the NMex 44Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+9
69.2%
Austin Apodaca run for 9 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
68.9%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the SJSt 46Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+1
69.0%
Austin Apodaca run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
68.4%
APODOCA, Austin pass incomplete to GIPSON, Teriyon, PENALTY SJ personal foul (SYKES, Keenan) 15 yards to the SJ30, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
67.8%
Austin Apodaca run for 15 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
67.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
67.7%
Austin Apodaca run for 5 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-1
68.2%
Austin Apodaca run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 10Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
68.2%
Zack Rogers 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Christian TagoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
70.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 21Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
70.2%
Kenny Potter run for 5 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-6
70.0%
Kenny Potter sacked by Kimmie Carson for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+23
69.1%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 55 yds , Carlos Wiggins returns for 23 yds to the NMex 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:0633% → 45%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
66.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
66.6%
Austin Apodaca run for 8 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
66.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+9
66.0%
Jhurell Pressley run for 9 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
66.0%
APODOCA, Austin pass incomplete to BUNDY, Marquis, PENALTY SJ offside defense (FOLEY, Brett) 5 yards to the SJ20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+3
66.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 17Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
66.0%
David Anaya run for 4 yds to the SJSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
66.0%
David Anaya run for 9 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
55.0%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 3:1258% → 71%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
58.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 8 yds to the SJSt 19Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+3
58.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
58.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 4 yds to the SJSt 26Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+41
58.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 41 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
62.1%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+35
71.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 35 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
65.1%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
65.8%
Austin Apodaca run for 3 yds to the NMex 29 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal forward pass (Austin Apodaca) to the NMex 24Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
66.9%
Zack Rogers punt for 50 yds , Tim Crawley returns for 7 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 1:5568% → 78%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
68.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
68.4%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+15
68.7%
POTTER, Kenny pass incomplete to CRAWLEY, Tim (CROSBY, Lee), PENALTY NM pass interference (CROSBY, Lee) 15 yards to the NM46, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
70.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
70.7%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+4
70.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 4 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
70.6%
Tyler Ervin run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+16
67.7%
Kenny Potter run for 16 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
78.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Ridge Jones for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
74.5%
Austin Apodaca run for 5 yds to the NMex 47 Teriyon GipsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
73.5%
Austin Apodaca run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
73.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
72.9%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Carlos Wiggins, broken up by Jimmy PruittSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
73.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the SJSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
74.8%
Zack Rogers punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tim Crawley at the SJSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
76.7%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
76.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 6 yds to the SJSt 22Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
76.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 27Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler Winston, broken up by Donnie DuncanSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tyler WinstonSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+43
75.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Carlos Wiggins at the SJSU 30 NEW MEXICO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
75.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Reece White for 8 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
74.1%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 3 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
74.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Reece White for 13 yds to the SJSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
73.5%
Jhurell Pressley run for 1 yd to the SJSt 45Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
73.5%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Reece WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+11
74.9%
Austin Apodaca pass intercepted Cleveland Wallace III return for 11 yds to the SJSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:4982% → 92%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
82.1%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
82.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+2
81.5%
Malik Roberson run for 2 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
82.3%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
82.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 11 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
82.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Donnie Duncan) to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
82.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the NMex 12Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
91.6%
Kenny Potter run for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
89.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 6 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+20
88.7%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Reece White for 20 yds to the NMex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.3%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Reece WhiteSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Carlos WigginsSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+18
88.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Carlos Wiggins for 18 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
87.7%
Romell Jordan run for 1 yd to the SJSt 38Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
87.8%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Romell JordanSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
88.2%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Marquis Bundy, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
88.6%
Zack Rogers punt for 28 yds, downed at the SJSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:5193% → 96%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
93.2%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+16
93.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 16 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
93.5%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
93.6%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the SJSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
93.7%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.9%
Malik Roberson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+27
93.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 27 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
94.0%
Malik Roberson run for 4 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-3
94.0%
Malik Roberson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+5
93.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
96.3%
Austin Lopez 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:394% → 13%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.1%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 5 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+44
96.1%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 44 yds to the SJSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
95.4%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.8%
Jhurell Pressley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 20DOWNS
16 plays · 91 yds · 6:5490% → 96%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
89.9%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the SJSt 9Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+11
89.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 11 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.1%
Tyler Ervin run for no gain to the SJSt 20Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+50
90.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 50 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
91.4%
Malik Roberson run for 7 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
91.4%
Jarrod Lawson run for 1 yd to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
91.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 3 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
91.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 6 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+5
91.4%
Tyler Ervin run for 5 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
91.4%
Malik Roberson run for 5 yds to the NMex 3Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
91.4%
Malik Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 4Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.8%
Tyler Ervin run for 2 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.0%
Tyler Ervin run for 1 yd to the NMex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
95.8%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Delane Hart-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+15
95.8%
APODOCA, Austin pass incomplete to HART-JOHNSON, D, PENALTY SJ roughing passer (SYKES, Keenan) 15 yards to the NM16, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
95.6%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Dameon Gamblin, broken up by Dominic BarnesSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
95.7%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Carlos Wiggins, broken up by Jimmy PruittSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+6
95.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Marquis Bundy for 11 yds to the NMex 33 lat. to Dameon Gamblin for 6 yds Dameon Gamblin fumbled, recovered by SJSt Dominic BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:25
Diquon Woodhouse run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 0:18
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q2 3:13
Kenny Potter pass complete to Hansell Wilson for 35 yds for a TD, (Austin Lopez KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com