2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Ethan Wood punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:38: Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:37: Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:57: Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 15 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — WYO win probability +2.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:16: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:54: Tyler Rausa 28 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:45WYO 4th & 21 at WYO 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q1 4:34BOIS 4th & 5 at WYO 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it96.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call96.4%72% to makePunt96.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 13:25BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 44, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:33WYO 4th & 7 at BOIS 49, down 24Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 4:57BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 18, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 19, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q3 11:16WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 8:05WYO 4th & 12 at WYO 29, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 1:54BOIS 4th & 6 at WYO 11, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%87% to makePunt98.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:11BOIS 4th & 9 at WYO 46, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.132% to convertField goal98.9%−0.323% to makePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q4 9:15WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 7:05BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 45, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:45BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:38BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:37BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:57WYO Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.6%97% to makeGo for two3.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:16BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:11WYO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two1.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1598% → 97%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 8 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 14 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+6
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 6 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 8 yds to the Wyom 43Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
97.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 13 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT7 plays · -11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
BOISDrive 3FG9 plays · 36 yds · 3:3197% → 97%
Q1 8:05
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+9
96.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-15
96.9%
RYPIEN, Brett pass complete to SPERBECK, T. for 9 yards to the WY43 (MAY, D.J.), PENALTY BSU pass interference (HUFF, Holden) 15 yards to the BSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+15
96.9%
RYPIEN, Brett sacked for loss of 5 yards to the BSU28 (YARBROUGH,Eddie), PENALTY WY face mask (YARBROUGH,Eddie) 15 yards to the BSU48, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds to the Wyom 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4INT7 plays · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.4%
COFFMAN, C. pass incomplete to MAULHARDT, Jake (MOXEY, Jonathan), PENALTY BSU pass interference (MOXEY, Jonathan) 9 yards to the WY34, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.4%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 6 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+10
96.4%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
50
+45
96.3%
Cameron Coffman pass intercepted Tyler Horn return for 45 yds to the Wyom 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:383% → 3%
BOISDrive 7TD15 plays · 65 yds · 5:4897% → 98%
Q2 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
97.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 6 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 11 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 12 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+8
97.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 8 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 4 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 2:042% → 2%
Q2 7:37
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+15
97.9%
COFFMAN, C. pass incomplete to HOLLISTER, J., PENALTY BSU pass interference (GRAY, Tyler) 15 yards to the WY48, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
97.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Joseph Parker for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Ethan Wood punt for 31 yds , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for no gain to the BoiSt 16 Shane Williams-Rhodes fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Joe MartaranoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
WYODrive 10TD6 plays · 59 yds · 2:512% → 4%
BOISDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Shane Williams-Rhodes, broken up by Marcus EppsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
BOISDrive 13TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:3397% → 99%
Q3 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
96.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz Anderson, broken up by Robert PriesterSimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
96.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 8 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
96.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Shane Williams-Rhodes for 4 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
98.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
98.3%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Tyler HornSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 30 , Shane Williams-Rhodes returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15FUMBLE5 plays · 70 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
WYODrive 16PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
98.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 4 yds to the Wyom 26Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
98.5%
COFFMAN, C. rush right for 1 yard to the WY27 (MARTARANO, J.), PENALTY BSU offside defense (WEAVER, Ben) 5 yards to the WY31, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
98.5%
Nick Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 30 Nick Smith fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FG6 plays · 49 yds · 2:2099% → 100%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 11 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18TD12 plays · 83 yds · 4:430% → 1%
Q3 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Nick Smith pass complete to Brian Hill for 9 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:11
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+12
99.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 12 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Holden Huff, broken up by Tim KamanaSimilar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
99.2%
Sean Wale punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Andrew Wingard at the Wyom 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+15
99.3%
SMITH, Nick pass incomplete to HILL, Brian, PENALTY BSU roughing passer (TAIMATUIA, J.) 15 yards to the WY31, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT13 plays · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
WYODrive 22END OF GAME5 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
99.5%
Nick Smith pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 18 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
99.5%
Nick Smith pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 25 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 15
OWN 42
-9
99.5%
Nick Smith sacked by David Moa for a loss of 9 yards to the Wyom 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:57
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 15 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q3 11:16
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+2
TD · Q1 1:38
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+1