Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 14 at Air Force 42

AF
2015 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2015 · Falcon Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:27 · Garrett Swanson punt for 31 yds, downed at the AFA 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+11.7Home team on offense+27.0Score differential+18.0Garbage-time factor+5.5Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:22: Dustin Garrison run for 60 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +3.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:55: Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +3.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:58: Karson Roberts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +6.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:28: Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +6.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:27: Jalen Robinette pass complete to Karson Roberts for 20 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +5.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 2 at AF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43AF 4th & 9 at AF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:14AF 4th & 9 at AF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:22AF 4th & 1 at FRES 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55AF 4th & 2 at FRES 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:55FRES 4th & 24 at FRES 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:58FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:06AF 4th & 1 at FRES 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−1.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:54AF 4th & 6 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:28FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:17AF 4th & 3 at FRES 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:07FRES 4th & 10 at AF 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:27FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:04FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:58AF 4th & 1 at FRES 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:08AF 4th & 7 at FRES 25, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:50FRES 4th & 10 at AF 33, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:14FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:22FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:34AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:55AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:58AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:28AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:27AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:09AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.6%
Kilton Anderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+39
86.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marteze Waller for 39 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
86.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
86.6%
Marteze Waller run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
86.6%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+1
86.6%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.0%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
86.0%
Benton Washington run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
85.9%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+53
85.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 43 yds , Da'Mari Scott returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 31 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:0414% → 16%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
85.6%
Kilton Anderson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+20
85.6%
Marteze Waller run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.2%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
84.1%
Marteze Waller run for 64 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
84.3%
Karson Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
84.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
84.3%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
84.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 52 yds, downed at the FrsSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 2:0517% → 21%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
83.1%
Dustin Garrison run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+7
83.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
83.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Da'Mari Scott) to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
83.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 11
-5
83.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 20
OWN 6
+7
83.2%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+14
83.3%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 14 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
83.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
79.2%
Dustin Garrison run for 60 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4880% → 80%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.0%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
80.0%
Benton Washington run for 5 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+54
80.0%
Bryan Driskell run for 54 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
80.6%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
80.6%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
80.5%
Bryan Driskell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
80.5%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
80.8%
Bryan Driskell run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.8%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Marteze Waller run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
78.6%
Kilton Anderson pass intercepted Roland Ladipo return for 17 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5879% → 83%
Q1 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
79.4%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.4%
Karson Roberts run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.9%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
81.0%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
80.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
81.3%
Garrett Swanson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:2881% → 81%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
81.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+24
81.6%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Griffin for 24 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
82.2%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 17 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
82.4%
Karson Roberts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
82.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+2
81.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
80.7%
Luke Strebel 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
79.3%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-9
79.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-9 Yards) to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 21
OWN 9
0
79.6%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Marteze WallerSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 21
OWN 9
-3
80.1%
Kilton Anderson sacked by D.J. Dunn Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 24
OWN 6
+55
80.5%
Garrett Swanson punt for 55 yds , Garrett Brown returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:0380% → 86%
Q2 9:01
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+10
80.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+7
81.1%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
81.4%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 18 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
81.4%
Bryan Driskell run for no gain to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+11
81.4%
Bryan Driskell run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
80.2%
Karson Roberts pass incomplete to Benton Washington AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal forward pass (Karson Roberts) to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+8
79.5%
Benton Washington run for 8 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.5%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
84.4%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
84.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-2
85.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 52 yds , Garrett Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 24 yds · 4:1284% → 83%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
84.2%
Garrett Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+25
84.1%
Karson Roberts run for 25 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.3%
Karson Roberts run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
85.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-1
85.0%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 42 Aubrey Duty-Tyson fumbled, recovered by AFA Aubrey Duty-TysonSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
84.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
85.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
85.3%
Bryan Driskell run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
85.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
84.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
84.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 6
50
0
82.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-6
83.3%
Kilton Anderson sacked by Alex Hansen for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3284% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.5%
Karson Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+44
84.3%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 44 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
85.1%
Karson Roberts run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+1
85.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+12
84.5%
Benton Washington run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.9%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Marteze Waller for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
89.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
90.2%
Garrett Swanson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Garrett Brown at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
90.6%
Karson Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
90.7%
Benton Washington run for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
90.3%
Karson Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
90.7%
Bryan Driskell run for 25 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
91.1%
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+3
91.1%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
90.8%
Benton Washington run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+24
90.2%
Karson Roberts run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 36 Karson Roberts fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Jamal Ellis , return for 24 yds to the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
89.0%
Marteze Waller run for 1 yd to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
88.5%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-1
89.2%
Marteze Waller run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
90.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 15 yds, downed at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1492% → 99%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
92.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+8
92.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
92.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 31 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
92.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
92.7%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+6
92.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
92.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 16
OPP 28
+8
92.7%
Bryan Driskell run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
98.5%
Jalen Robinette pass complete to Karson Roberts for 20 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Dustin GarrisonSimilar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Garrett Swanson punt for 31 yds, downed at the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5199% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
98.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+11
98.6%
Bryan Driskell run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
98.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+17
98.7%
Bryan Driskell run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 15 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+10
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 10 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 16 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
Malique Micenheimer run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+9
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Malique Micenheimer for 9 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Garrett Swanson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24DOWNS
17 plays · 57 yds · 6:50100% → 100%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
99.8%
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
99.8%
Benton Washington run for 3 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.9%
Benton Washington run for 16 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Karson Roberts pass complete to Garrett Brown for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Benton Washington run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
99.8%
Benton Washington run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
99.8%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+4
99.8%
Aubrey Duty-Tyson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-5
99.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Jacob Stafford run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 17 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass complete to Justin Johnson for 27 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Kilton Anderson pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:28
Karson Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 5:58
Karson Roberts run for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 1:27
Jalen Robinette pass complete to Karson Roberts for 20 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com