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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreNEV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:36 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:30: Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 27 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — WYO win probability +13.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 12 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — WYO win probability +11.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:21: Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — WYO win probability +19.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:56: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +12.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:36: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +12.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 16 at WYO 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snapGo for it66.5%−0.116% to convertField goal66.5%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call66.6%average punt
- Q1 8:56WYO 4th & 1 at NEV 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.4%71% to convertField goal36.1%−0.360% to makePunt35.4%−0.9average punt
- Q1 1:48WYO 4th & 8 at NEV 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call39.3%72% to makePunt37.6%−1.7average punt
- Q2 14:02NEV 4th & 10 at WYO 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.5%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call60.5%45% to makePunt60.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:30NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snapGo for it39.8%−1.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.7%average punt
- Q3 11:21NEV 4th & 4 at WYO 44, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.1%48% to convertField goal9.6%−2.527% to makePunt11.1%−1.0average punt
- Q3 9:39WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 48, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.2%average punt
- Q3 8:10NEV 4th & 12 at NEV 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.2%−1.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q3 5:04WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 31, up 21Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it94.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:53WYO 4th & 3 at NEV 18, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snapGo for it94.5%51% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%−0.479% to makePunt89.6%−4.9average punt
- Q4 3:51WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 36, up 7Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it91.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.1%−0.6average punt
- Q4 1:45NEV 4th & 5 at WYO 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.3%42% to convertField goal8.1%−3.242% to makePunt6.6%−4.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NEV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 10:28WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.6%97% to makeGo for two47.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:10NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.5%97% to makeGo for two54.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:30WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.0%97% to makeGo for two54.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27WYO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.4%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:21WYO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:56NEV Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.6%97% to makeGo for two10.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:36NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call12.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two12.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEVDrive 1PUNT14 plays · 37 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
33.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
33.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+16
33.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 16 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-15
33.0%
STEWART, Tyler pass complete to RICHARDSON, J. for 4 yards to the WY27 (WINGARD, Andrew), PENALTY NEV personal foul 15 yards to the WY46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 46
+6
33.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Don Jackson for 6 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 23
OPP 45
+7
33.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Don Jackson for 7 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2MISSED FG14 plays · 72 yds · 7:0835% → 39%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
35.4%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 10 yds to the Wyom 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
35.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 4 yds to the Wyom 44Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
36.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 5 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+1
36.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Kellen Overstreet for 1 yd to the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3MISSED FG9 plays · 43 yds · 2:4662% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4TD10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3440% → 52%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
40.0%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 7 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-15
41.5%
HILL, Brian rush for 16 yards to the NEV33, out-of-bounds (RUFUS, Asauni), PENALTY WY personal foul 15 yards to the WY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 22
OWN 36
+5
39.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+21
39.4%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Kellen Overstreet for 21 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+18
51.5%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 18 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1851% → 62%
Q2 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
48.2%
JACKSON, Don rush for loss of 4 yards to the NEV27 (WINGARD, Andrew), PENALTY WY personal foul 15 yards to the NEV46, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
46.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4044% → 61%
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
44.7%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 12 yds to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
46.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 6 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
47.0%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 8 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
61.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 27 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.3%
Alex Boy punt for 34 yds , Tanner Gentry returns for 12 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8TD5 plays · 47 yds · 0:3861% → 72%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
60.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 10 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
60.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 7 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+18
60.6%
Cameron Coffman run for 18 yds to the Nevad 12 Cameron Coffman fumbled, forced by Ian Seau, recovered by Wyom Jacob Hollister for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
71.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 12 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10TD9 plays · 76 yds · 3:3971% → 91%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+46
71.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 46 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
72.5%
Brian Hill run for 9 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q3 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+24
88.4%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 9:39
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+1
92.0%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 1 yd to the Wyom 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
91.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 3 yds to the Nevad 6Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+12
92.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 12 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
91.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 11 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
91.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 8 yds to the Nevad 36Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-10
91.3%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, J. (MAY, D.J.), PENALTY NEV holding 10 yards to the NEV26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15TD10 plays · 79 yds · 2:275% → 19%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
94.8%
STEWART, Tyler sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NEV11 (YARBROUGH, E.;MALAUULU, S.), PENALTY WY personal foul 15 yards to the NEV36, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
94.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 22 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+16
94.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 16 yds to the Wyom 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.7%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
94.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 9 yds to the Wyom 17Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
81.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16MISSED FG14 plays · 57 yds · 7:0390% → 94%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
91.0%
Kellen Overstreet run for 13 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:179% → 24%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
91.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 10 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+29
90.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 29 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
89.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
89.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 10 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
88.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Wyom 15Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
88.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Wyom 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 7 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4587% → 92%
Q4 6:36
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+13
85.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 13 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 1:3411% → 11%
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+13
89.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 13 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
86.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 21 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
84.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Rodney Lawson for 5 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
84.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by D.J. MaySimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-18
89.4%
Tyler Stewart sacked by D.J. May for a loss of 18 yards to the Nevad 46 Tyler Stewart fumbled, recovered by Nevad Tyler Stewart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · 33 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:21
Kellen Overstreet run for 5 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q2 1:30
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 27 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q3 0:56
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
-12.8